Saturday, October 22, 2011

Breeders Crown

I am excited to be part of the Breeders Crown media team this year. Of course, I would be more excited if I had a current passport, which means I would be at Woodbine right now and again next week, but I will have to be content with working from home and Northfield's clubhouse tonight (10/22)as I look at the three races I have been assigned -- Open pace, Mare Pace, Three-year-old colt and gelding pace -- for the media guide. Stop by and say hello if you are there.
Nights like his are tough to wager. For instance you have ten mares racing for eight spots in the final, so drivers may not want to gut their charges A)Because a long overland trip may mean not qualifying and B) It may take too much out of their horse.

But I will makes some picks anyhow. First up is a prep race for the Open Pacers. It would not surprise me to see a non-Crown starter win this, although I am sure it will be a great race. for Foiled Again and We Will See, who will likely battle for divisional honors next week, this is a needed tightener and for FA a chance for he and regular pilot Yannick Gingras ot get a trip over the oval. A good race to watch, but I migh ttake a flyer on a 2nd tier Crown starter like Alexie Mattossie.

I love Dreamfair Eternal in the mares elim even though she was beaten last start and has been off a few weeks. She has always been good fresh and after the bad luck of the Milton and a lot of tough trips, an extra week or two off won't hurt her. Maureen Rocks is an interesting one. Tony O'Sullivan really likes her and since she is Ohio connected, well...
The three-year-olds are wide-open. The top 5 in each elim (races 10 and 11) go on, but these will be hard races to bet. One horse worth a few bucks is Westwardho Hanover. I had him in his frist start for the Burkes at Lexington and midway down the lane, he looked like a winner at 14--1. I still hit a nice tri when he leveled to third. This horse may continue to go forward and seems to get along well with Palone on the big track. This is a value animal. I need 7 or 8-1 to play him, because with the likes of speedy but off-form Custard The Dragon, Ontario star Mystician, Alsace Hanopver and Roll With Joe, he could improve a few lengths and still not hit the ticket.
The other elim is just as tough with Betterthancheddar, Up The Credit and Jug champ Big Bad John. My only prediciton is that in one of these elims, one of the expected "big boys" won't advance. Now, if I only knew which one...

Good luck. More on the BC finals during the week.

No comments: