So, last night, after my bets bet of the night, Game Sophie ($18.80) wins, ($10 win ticket, he says bragging) we move onto a maiden claimer where I really like Eva Shark from the rail at a 3-1 ML. But I know she is going to be a short-priced fave, so I go on the air and say, "I am going to try ot get he favorite beat with #6 Town Beuaty. Eva Shark is 0-27 career and I cannot pick her since she will be around even money." I go to my office and do some work and pay little attention to the odds. The race goes off and Eva Shark wins. The prices come up and she pays $17.40. At that price, she was a clear play.
This is just one example of why we should wait until the last possible minute to wager. First, you have to watch the post parade, which in cold weather, comes at two minutes to post. If you are betting before the post parade, thank you. You are making my odds that much better.
Additionally, due to common pooling, the vast majority of money comes into the pools late, from the co-mingling (80% or more of the wagers on a typical Northfield race come from other locations). So there can be huge odds swings. How many times has a horse that was 8-1 when I went ont he air slid to 3-1 at post-time and dropped to 9-5 when the race went off? A lot. So be patient. And learn how to use a self service machine. With the plethora of tracks offering 10-cent supers, lines with live tellers move slower than they once did. There is rarely a line at an SST, and if there is, there are plenty of others around.
So, be patient and you will not only cash more often, but you may cash for more cash.
Wednesday, November 12, 2008
Saturday, November 8, 2008
I am hearing a lot of gamblers complaining these days... we are racing too many races...too many cheap horses...too many form reversals... and they say they are staying away. While I disagree on points 1 and 3 and agree on point 2, the thing I cannot understand is why these players are staying away from our Pick 5 and Pick 4 when there is a carryover.
Carryovers are like playing with the house's money and often a carryover results in a return of close to 100% of the amount wagered, instead of the typical 77.5% return. Look at the Friday, November 7 Pick 5. The carryover was $1,700 and about $8,600 was bet into the pool, meaning the takeout was about $1,935. That means we paid out $8,365 or 97% of what was bet. That alone makes the Pick 5 a must play, but then, have a look at the play itself--
There were three winning favorites in the Pick 5- 3-5 Lookin Ata Sadie, 11-10 Krissy K and 6-5 Andi Andi. The other two winners were second choices-- 7-5 Sharons Future (basically a co-favorite) and the "value" horse, 5-2 Ain't No Tellin Now. THE PICK FIVE PAID $236.60. On a $1 wager. If you had gone 2 deep in each leg, and spent $32 you would have gotten a nearly 7-1 payoff - nearly twice what the Pick 5 "should" have paid.
I know it is just one example, but keep it in mind. Even if you have cut your Northfield play, these carryovers warrant yourt attention.
I also want to mention that there have been an awful lot of "long" exactas and trifectas lately. There is a general rule of thumb that if you multiply the winner's win price x the place horse's place price, the exacta will be close to the same amount. For a tri, multiply win x place x show horse's show to estimate the expected tri price. Lately, the exactas have been exceeding the win x place payoffs on a regular basis. For the trifectas, it does not happen quite as often, but when it does, the payoff is often twice the predicted level. Ironically, I have received only one e-mail complaining about these long prices, and when I did , it was pretty much tongue in cheek. But when a tri or exacta comes back allegedly "short," I get e-mails out the wazzoo. Folks, they are seperate pools and these predictors are guidelines, nothing more. Perhaps somebody is making big win plays that skew the pools. Or some big exacta players are on cold streaks. But I prefer to think that what this means is simply that there is value to be found right now in our exacta and trifecta pools. I find my plays changing, as I am normally more of a win bettor and at least half of my small wagering volume is now going into these exotic, every race wagers.
Want to talk about it? Post a comment or catch me on the apron any night I am doing my picks!
Carryovers are like playing with the house's money and often a carryover results in a return of close to 100% of the amount wagered, instead of the typical 77.5% return. Look at the Friday, November 7 Pick 5. The carryover was $1,700 and about $8,600 was bet into the pool, meaning the takeout was about $1,935. That means we paid out $8,365 or 97% of what was bet. That alone makes the Pick 5 a must play, but then, have a look at the play itself--
There were three winning favorites in the Pick 5- 3-5 Lookin Ata Sadie, 11-10 Krissy K and 6-5 Andi Andi. The other two winners were second choices-- 7-5 Sharons Future (basically a co-favorite) and the "value" horse, 5-2 Ain't No Tellin Now. THE PICK FIVE PAID $236.60. On a $1 wager. If you had gone 2 deep in each leg, and spent $32 you would have gotten a nearly 7-1 payoff - nearly twice what the Pick 5 "should" have paid.
I know it is just one example, but keep it in mind. Even if you have cut your Northfield play, these carryovers warrant yourt attention.
I also want to mention that there have been an awful lot of "long" exactas and trifectas lately. There is a general rule of thumb that if you multiply the winner's win price x the place horse's place price, the exacta will be close to the same amount. For a tri, multiply win x place x show horse's show to estimate the expected tri price. Lately, the exactas have been exceeding the win x place payoffs on a regular basis. For the trifectas, it does not happen quite as often, but when it does, the payoff is often twice the predicted level. Ironically, I have received only one e-mail complaining about these long prices, and when I did , it was pretty much tongue in cheek. But when a tri or exacta comes back allegedly "short," I get e-mails out the wazzoo. Folks, they are seperate pools and these predictors are guidelines, nothing more. Perhaps somebody is making big win plays that skew the pools. Or some big exacta players are on cold streaks. But I prefer to think that what this means is simply that there is value to be found right now in our exacta and trifecta pools. I find my plays changing, as I am normally more of a win bettor and at least half of my small wagering volume is now going into these exotic, every race wagers.
Want to talk about it? Post a comment or catch me on the apron any night I am doing my picks!
Tuesday, November 4, 2008
So, I voted today and did not have to wait in line. Apparently, I live in the only part of the world where there are not very many people voting. But, since it is election day, here is your chance to vote on a few issues. Just answer by entering a comment.
Issue 1- Should Northfield offer a Pick 3 on races 2-3-4? Yes or No
Issue 2- Are the Pick 5 and Pick 4 wagering options good ones for you? Yes or No
Issue 3- What is your favorite wager and why?
Issue 4- withdrawn from the ballot due to a lack of signatures
Issue 5- What is more important to you when wagering -- full fields or good quality horses
Issue 6A- What can Dave B and I do to make our on-air handicapping segments more useful to you?
Issue 6B- Do you even pay attention to our picks?
Thanks for voting! Don't forget. Live Tuesday racing starts tonight, November 4 and runs all winter.
Issue 1- Should Northfield offer a Pick 3 on races 2-3-4? Yes or No
Issue 2- Are the Pick 5 and Pick 4 wagering options good ones for you? Yes or No
Issue 3- What is your favorite wager and why?
Issue 4- withdrawn from the ballot due to a lack of signatures
Issue 5- What is more important to you when wagering -- full fields or good quality horses
Issue 6A- What can Dave B and I do to make our on-air handicapping segments more useful to you?
Issue 6B- Do you even pay attention to our picks?
Thanks for voting! Don't forget. Live Tuesday racing starts tonight, November 4 and runs all winter.
Wednesday, October 29, 2008
Baby it's cold outside
This can be the toughest time of year to handicap-- conditions can change in minutes with a downpour or snow shower and previosu track biases, on which you have based your handicapping, lose their validity. The most important tjing to do is pay attention to what is happening. If I am doing my picks upstairs in the palatial Dave Bianconi TV Studio, it is possible that we had a cameraman call in sick. But it is more likely that we have crappy conditions.
So, as I pointed out in my October Public Confessions column in Harness Eye, this time of the year the weather changes rapidly and a lot of horses seem to improve. My theory has always been that a lot of horses get worse, and the others are just more consistent, but that doesn’t matter. Can you think of a good cold-weather horse? Going back to Michgan Mack and the Mapes family in the mid seventies, there have been dozens that I have cashed tickets on regularly in winter, but recently I got caught not paying attention to my history at Northfield. It was a very cool night, but we were still in soccer season, so I was not even thinking about my cold weather horses. I sure as heck was thinking about them after Slide Lock won at 11.90-1. It had been a 70-degree day and the temp had dropped down into the 40s (officially posted at 50 before the sun went down) when the John Brown-trainee went to post in miserable form. Several regulars on the Northfield apron were heckling me for not putting him on my ticket and I did not understand why. After he blew by the field, they started reminding me he was a cold-weather horse. When I got home that night, I checked my bet-back book, and sure enough, there was Slide Lock, with a notation “cold-weather horse.” I did not do my history homework, and while it did not cost me anything except an on-air winner (I did not bet the race), it could have been a pretty decent hit. I forgot my history and I was doomed. Exacta, with the third choice second, was $238.60, and the tri, with the favorite third, was $908. Ouch.
So pay attention and the go cash
So, as I pointed out in my October Public Confessions column in Harness Eye, this time of the year the weather changes rapidly and a lot of horses seem to improve. My theory has always been that a lot of horses get worse, and the others are just more consistent, but that doesn’t matter. Can you think of a good cold-weather horse? Going back to Michgan Mack and the Mapes family in the mid seventies, there have been dozens that I have cashed tickets on regularly in winter, but recently I got caught not paying attention to my history at Northfield. It was a very cool night, but we were still in soccer season, so I was not even thinking about my cold weather horses. I sure as heck was thinking about them after Slide Lock won at 11.90-1. It had been a 70-degree day and the temp had dropped down into the 40s (officially posted at 50 before the sun went down) when the John Brown-trainee went to post in miserable form. Several regulars on the Northfield apron were heckling me for not putting him on my ticket and I did not understand why. After he blew by the field, they started reminding me he was a cold-weather horse. When I got home that night, I checked my bet-back book, and sure enough, there was Slide Lock, with a notation “cold-weather horse.” I did not do my history homework, and while it did not cost me anything except an on-air winner (I did not bet the race), it could have been a pretty decent hit. I forgot my history and I was doomed. Exacta, with the third choice second, was $238.60, and the tri, with the favorite third, was $908. Ouch.
So pay attention and the go cash
Wednesday, October 22, 2008
Picking Winners and Making Money- Are they different?
As a public handicapper, I often take grief from you guys for me picks. And that is fine. Whether is it an owner or trainer begging me not to give them the Giss of Death, or a 'capper complaining that I killed the price on his longshot by picking him, I still enjoy the teasing. It's why I do my picks from the Winners Circle or Studio B, instead of from the palatial Dave Bianconi Studios whenever possible. I am a racing fans first and foremost and I love interacting with out patrons.
As a public handicapper, what is my responsibility? Is it to give out winners? To give out longshots? Or just to give out legitimate angles and tips they may or may not pan out. To me, it's the third. When I go on TV, I try to point out something you -- or the program comments -- might have missed-- a horse locked in, behind dead cover or a missed barn change. Then it becomes your job to use the information correctly, or to ignore it.
Friday, I had a great night. Not just because I picked 9 winners, but because mutuels included $12.60 on Foxy Jane, $25.60 on Sharon's Future and $17.00 on my best bet of the night, Momentous Meg. I don't have a big bankroll these days, with two kids in college, so I have to look for value. How many times have you heard me say "Let's try to get the favorite beat-- she's suspect." With double-digit win prices, we don;t need a ton of winners to be profitable.
You also have a huge advantage of me -- you do not need to play every race. And while I certainly do not play every race, I have to go on the air for every race. And there are some splits of maiden claimers or nw200pd pacing fillies and mares where you just throw up your hands and pray for divine intervention. I still have to go out and announce a prediction...but yo u do not have to play a race like if you feel that way. So don't.
Most horseplayers have a budget and will play within it. But you are generally much better playing 5 races at $20 each then 14 at $7 each. Even better is to alter the size of your play....Maybe $50 in the race you like the bets, than a $20, a $10 and a couple five dollar plays.
This will help your bottom line remarkably.
Hope to see you at the races tonight. Now, go cash.
As a public handicapper, what is my responsibility? Is it to give out winners? To give out longshots? Or just to give out legitimate angles and tips they may or may not pan out. To me, it's the third. When I go on TV, I try to point out something you -- or the program comments -- might have missed-- a horse locked in, behind dead cover or a missed barn change. Then it becomes your job to use the information correctly, or to ignore it.
Friday, I had a great night. Not just because I picked 9 winners, but because mutuels included $12.60 on Foxy Jane, $25.60 on Sharon's Future and $17.00 on my best bet of the night, Momentous Meg. I don't have a big bankroll these days, with two kids in college, so I have to look for value. How many times have you heard me say "Let's try to get the favorite beat-- she's suspect." With double-digit win prices, we don;t need a ton of winners to be profitable.
You also have a huge advantage of me -- you do not need to play every race. And while I certainly do not play every race, I have to go on the air for every race. And there are some splits of maiden claimers or nw200pd pacing fillies and mares where you just throw up your hands and pray for divine intervention. I still have to go out and announce a prediction...but yo u do not have to play a race like if you feel that way. So don't.
Most horseplayers have a budget and will play within it. But you are generally much better playing 5 races at $20 each then 14 at $7 each. Even better is to alter the size of your play....Maybe $50 in the race you like the bets, than a $20, a $10 and a couple five dollar plays.
This will help your bottom line remarkably.
Hope to see you at the races tonight. Now, go cash.
Tuesday, October 21, 2008
Believe it or not, I am voting no on expanded gambling in Ohio
The following is my opinion only and does not necessarily reflect that of Northfield Park, the Ohio racing scene or any other entity, even if it should. I know it’s hard to believe. I am against Issue 6. If you have ever spoken to me about my views regarding the issue of sin choice— smoking, drinking, gambling and soccer (kidding) – you know I am all in favor of allowing people to make a free choice. Provide the option and allow them to misbehave if they choose. If they choose not to partake, more power to them. Based on that concept, I should be pounding the pavement in favor of Issue 6 – a resort casino in Wilmington, Ohio.
So why am I against Issue 6? Not because it fails to help the racetracks I love so much. Not because the concept of a resort casino in Wilmington, Ohio is oxymoronic. (In the interest of full disclosure, I once dated a girl from Wilmington and have spent a lot of time there, so I know of which I speak). Not because I don’t believe the promoters. I am against Issue 6 because it is bad law. Pure and simple. Issue 6 wants to change the Ohio Constitution for the benefit of one business (not even one class of business, which I can live with) and I have a fundamental problem with that. That is not what the Constitution is for. Even the racetrack slots issue from a few years back (and I know we made a hash of it) allowed for competition, instead of creating a monopoly. That’s what Issue 6 does.
I don’t know if the Wilmington operators will pay 30%, 25% or 0% tax. I do not know if their revenue projections are correct, although my hunch is that they are overstated. $26 million to Cuyahoga County annually sounds like a lot of money. But, for perspective, the proposed downtown Cleveland Medical Mart and Convention Center is going to cost nearly $550 million. So it would take over 21 years to finance it if that’s what the funds were used for exclusively. The county deficit is currently $65 million. So a casino in Wilmington and a casino in Cuyahoga, or Northern Summit (or one that straddles both), might, combined, contribute enough to erase that deficit.
I do know that this is bad legislation and sets a dangerous precedent. What comes next if we pass this amendment. A constitutional amendment to allow one resort brothel in Celina? One resort smoker’s club in Shelby? Or perhaps just one resort opium den in Athens (not that you could tell it from a regular Ohio University weekend party).
Just my two cents and I welcome your comments. And don’t even ask me about Issue 5.
So why am I against Issue 6? Not because it fails to help the racetracks I love so much. Not because the concept of a resort casino in Wilmington, Ohio is oxymoronic. (In the interest of full disclosure, I once dated a girl from Wilmington and have spent a lot of time there, so I know of which I speak). Not because I don’t believe the promoters. I am against Issue 6 because it is bad law. Pure and simple. Issue 6 wants to change the Ohio Constitution for the benefit of one business (not even one class of business, which I can live with) and I have a fundamental problem with that. That is not what the Constitution is for. Even the racetrack slots issue from a few years back (and I know we made a hash of it) allowed for competition, instead of creating a monopoly. That’s what Issue 6 does.
I don’t know if the Wilmington operators will pay 30%, 25% or 0% tax. I do not know if their revenue projections are correct, although my hunch is that they are overstated. $26 million to Cuyahoga County annually sounds like a lot of money. But, for perspective, the proposed downtown Cleveland Medical Mart and Convention Center is going to cost nearly $550 million. So it would take over 21 years to finance it if that’s what the funds were used for exclusively. The county deficit is currently $65 million. So a casino in Wilmington and a casino in Cuyahoga, or Northern Summit (or one that straddles both), might, combined, contribute enough to erase that deficit.
I do know that this is bad legislation and sets a dangerous precedent. What comes next if we pass this amendment. A constitutional amendment to allow one resort brothel in Celina? One resort smoker’s club in Shelby? Or perhaps just one resort opium den in Athens (not that you could tell it from a regular Ohio University weekend party).
Just my two cents and I welcome your comments. And don’t even ask me about Issue 5.
Friday, October 10, 2008
Courageous Lady
Hoepfully, we can do a bit better with our picks For the Courageous Lady than we did with Night of Champs, although the Pick 5 was pretty easy. I did not play a nickel on the card - I didn;t see any kind of value plays that would have made the investment worthwhile. And that is part of my problem, I am a fan first and a handicapper second, which makes me a gambler third. Having said that, even if I was not going to be here tomorrow for the CL, I would be wagering, and it would not be on ML fave Artimittateslife.
She is good, make no mistake, and she needs to be used heavily in the exotics, but Slaley will win the Lady and may pay $8.00 doing it if the East Coast cash jumps on the fave like I hear it might.
Slaley has been just about unbeatable since being purchased by Ian Fromowitz and Gerrie Tucker and she should get an easy lead from pst three. A minor concern is that she just raced Tuesday, bu Fromowitz tells me she came out of the race feeling great. Brett Miller did not really choose off-- Fromowitz hoped to get Ontario stra Brad Forward, but he was unavailable, so they listed Brett since Virgil is training the filly locally. Tony Hall is no slouch and this filly does not look like there are a lot fo decisions to be made-- point her in the right direction and roll. With Artimittateslife (still can't get used to that spelling) in the second tier, game over.
$50 win Slaley
$20 x Box Slaley to Artimittateslife
$2 Tri 39/39/all
$2 Tri 3/9/124
$1 Tri 3/124/9
.10 super 39/139/all/12349
Good luck!
She is good, make no mistake, and she needs to be used heavily in the exotics, but Slaley will win the Lady and may pay $8.00 doing it if the East Coast cash jumps on the fave like I hear it might.
Slaley has been just about unbeatable since being purchased by Ian Fromowitz and Gerrie Tucker and she should get an easy lead from pst three. A minor concern is that she just raced Tuesday, bu Fromowitz tells me she came out of the race feeling great. Brett Miller did not really choose off-- Fromowitz hoped to get Ontario stra Brad Forward, but he was unavailable, so they listed Brett since Virgil is training the filly locally. Tony Hall is no slouch and this filly does not look like there are a lot fo decisions to be made-- point her in the right direction and roll. With Artimittateslife (still can't get used to that spelling) in the second tier, game over.
$50 win Slaley
$20 x Box Slaley to Artimittateslife
$2 Tri 39/39/all
$2 Tri 3/9/124
$1 Tri 3/124/9
.10 super 39/139/all/12349
Good luck!
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
