With the Summit County fair at Northfield Saturday, and the need to fill that card with some overnights, the Monday card features the top Saturday horses, including millionaire Mypanmar, who I will try to get beat.
There is a $10,000 Guaranteed Pick 4 with 14% takeout on races 8-11.
My play: 2369/35/12467/2=$40
Analysis: Race 8- The two streaking horses, 2)Fox Valley Flyby and 3)Jl Nate The Great appear very good, but 6) Go Cowboy Go is racing well and won the class last time at this level.I don't really like 9)Extremely Fast's form, but I have to use him as the ML choice with massive class releif.
Race 9: Tempted to single 3) Man I'm Good, but any horse named after an alligator poacher, even a fictional one, gets my attention so we use 5) Amos Moses as well.
Race 10: 6) The Long Goodbye is the logical choice, but hasn't won in awhile, so we will go deep here. Lots of question and "what if" scenarios.
Race 11: 2)Westedge Matt is very professional, very sharp and draws well. I think he wins easily and we will single him.
Here are the rest of the picks. Good luck.
Race 1: 5 Upfront Jesse- Moves up off the maiden win and should put in a Noble effort; 2 Tory- Has speed and draws well, worth considering; 6 North’s Chester- Stalwart contends off his best, but he’s been here for a while.
Race 2: 7 Blue My Mind- Drops to the bottom and gets Noble, I’d like him even better inside; 1 Polo Joe- First giood draw of 2011, but needs to show more; 3 Hoosier Lion- Tactical speed will have him roaring early.
Race 3: 1 Eye On The Prize- Moves up off effort that is better than it appears and gets Aaron; 2 Mr Sam- Showed improvement in drop back to this class in last; 9 Trytopass Sam- Still don’t know if it’s a challenge or an exhortation.
Race 4: 9 Taxed- The maiden breakthrough was a good one and he should handle the move up; 3 Bella Bionda- Always does work, but still trying to learn how to race; 6 Star Dazzler- Should improve with Aaron in the bike; 2 Israeli Hall- Was roughed up after a good string of “on the super” performances.
Race 5: 5 Trainedtofly- Dominated the conditioned claimers last time and gets my call to upset these; 4 Smok’n Muscles- Should be good if he can deal with the half-mile oval; 9 Can’t Fence Me In- May be at the mercy of the trip.
Race 6: 7 Giulio- Wins if he stays flat, a big if, granted; 8 Christina Victory- Very nice mare gave effort from the outside last time; 1 Lookslikefire- Lookslikeadifferenthorse in his last two starts. Positive form cycle.
Race 7: 1 Osborne’s Yankee- Gets class relief and draws well; 6 I Know Your Lookin- Has been the most consistent in the top local pace; 9 Mypanmar- I know he has $1.48 million, but this isn’t the Hilliard Fair; 7 Delivered Rules- Northfield’s 2010 HOTY is racing better than he was earlier this season.
Race 8: 2 Fox Valley Flyby- He’s razor sharp & should flyby these; 3 Jl Nate The Great- He also looks for his 4th in a row, but faces tougher than he was; 9 Extremely Fast- Faced better in Pennsy, but hasn’t shown me enough work.
Race 9: 3 Man I’m Good- Moves out of conditioned claimers even though still eligible; 5 Amos Moses- Could be racing about “45 minutes Southeast of Thibodeaux, Louisiana”; 6 Three To Get Ready- Swartz may put on a show.
Race 10: 6 The Long Goodbye- Has been showing signs of life recently. Hello; 1 Artistic Dreamer- Solid contender from the rail, but Aaron chose off; 7 Jenna’s Dream- Reunited with Charlino, but current form is suspect; 2 J D’s Turismo- Inconsistent, but should be good enough to wrap up the super in this one.
Race 11: 2 Westedge Matt- Racing brave and should handle the move up in class; 5 Hummer N- Gets a class break and was racing well before he got the freshening; 3 Gold Fever- Would have him on top if not for the sick scratch.
Race 12: 6 Fantasy Character- Seems to have found his best level; 2 Leroy Mot- Noble chose the Amman-trainee, not news, but this one now gets Stahl. That is; 3 Key Western- Classy old horse gets Charlino and always tries.
Race 13: 1 Lawsuit- First time Noble on the Beachy-trainee; 9 Christmas Photo K- Looks like Lasix is helping and Swartz will give him a patient trip; 5 Worries Stay Small- Took pressure in last, Merriman for Kramp should help; 4 Fancy Schmansy- Drops to the level of his last win, but has been pretty hard on himself lately.
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