Thursday, July 21, 2011

Battle of Lake Erie Card with a #10K Guaranteed pick 4

Unfortunately we had some horsemen chicken out at the thought of facing the three millionaires in this year's Battle. With just six entrants, it made little sense to add a superfecta, so instead, the Battle, which wraps the Pick 4, will be part pf a Guaranteed Pick 4, and as always, the takeout is just 14%.

My play: 1345/9/2459/125

Analysis:

Race 8: It;s really wide open and their are question marks on both Millner-trainees (1)Australian Stock and 5)Benn's Thunder). 3)Celebrity Wonder, my top choice, gets Anthony MacDonald for absent Robin Miller, and 4)Mom's Looker fits with his best.

Race 9: Going with a risky single in 9)Kb's On My Toes, but i just don't see any other horse that is legit at this level. It may come back to bite me.

Race 10: Another very competitive bunch. Could easily have hit all here if I had the budget or the guts to just go three deep in the first leg.

Race 11: Using the Big Three in the Battle. I love looking for a price, but these three are head and shoulders above the rest.

Here is the rest of the card. See you there!

Race 1: 1 Zakman- Likes the rail and A. MacDonald has 1800+ wins. It’s not like he’s bloody Martin Smith from Croydon; 3 Mattonthechooch- Reunited with Noble; 5 Dax Hanover- Has done good work locally at this level.

Race 2: 6 Anastasia Wildfire- Stahl choosing off the Sherman-trainee is dog bites man, it’s news; 4 Can’t Fence Me In- Recovered from a mistake to beat similar; 9 El Cortez- Gets A Mac, but second tier is a concern for me.

Race 3: 3 Colossal Cruiser- Moves up off a “wow” win and now gets Noble; 4 Rapid Pursuit- Should be good with Goodell as he looks for five in a row; 1 Pw Tootsie- Races well from good posts and the rail is as good as it gets.

Race 4: 1 Cappucino Blaze- Has done good work, but been victimized by trips lately, value play; 9 Egotistic Pro- NW1L8 is in an upward form cycle; 6 Polo Joe- Has some back class and is improving after a rough start to 2011; 2 Moonsailer- First decent post recently, needs to get away well and finish strong;.

Race 5: 7 Delivered Rules- Just keeps rolling along in an attempt to defend his HOTY title; 4 I Know Your Lookin- Very consistent, but hasn’t beat the choice lately; 3 Red River B- Has been solid since shipping in from Scranton.

Race 6: 1 Lrs Mamas Boy- Seems to be best of these, especially from the rail; 5 Magnificent Gift- Always contends, but it’s been awhile since he won; 8 Gold Fever- Drawing the snowman may be a crushing blow.

Race 7: 2 Bodandy Andy- Lukewarm choice which may change pending the tote-board; 6 Scooters Clan- Dismiss at your own risk; 7 Here’s Hooter- Raced well against better last time the Swartz was with him; 9 Depravedhedonist- Always tries, but at ten not the same animal that he was.

Race 8: 3 Celebrity Wonder- Fresh set of hands for a trotter who always puts in solid efforts; 5 Benn’s Thunder- Noble had his choice of Millner-trainees; 1 Australian Stock- Has been inconsistent on this racetrack, chancy pick.

Race 9: 9 Kb’s On My Toes- Well, at least he should be tight after last week; 7 Liftoff Bayama- Seems to race well with catch-drivers and gets the top dog here; 2 Christmas Photo K- Good draw, second time Lasix and a big maybe.

Race 10: 6 Go Cowboy Go- Goodell’s choice over #4, so I will agree; 4 The Long Goodbye- We have a Matt Kakaley sighting & he jumped off the #5 when Eric chose the #6; 2 Vince The Man- was very good here previously.

Race 11: $100,000 Battle of Lake Erie: 5 Giddy Up Lucky- Benefits from the short field and should get clear sailing, hoping the stretch is long enough; 2 Hypnotic Blue Chip- The defending champ gets a perfect 2-hole trip behind the ’09 champ; 1 Foiled Again- Great horse, but he hasn’t won in two months & he should be showing more.

Race 12: 3 Soul Redeemer- Class showed at the bottom, he may handle the triple-class jump; 5 Cambest In Motion- Racing well off two straight wins,; 4 Thisonesforjunior- Moves up and looks for 3 in a row, at a price.

Race 13: 1 Mainline Hall- Gets a great draw and the track’s leading driver; 2 Museum Piece- Moves up in exceptional form, a call even with Wyatt choosing off; 4 Big Valley- Good enough to get a minor piece of this one; 9 Blue Time Overdue- Ran into traffic trouble dropping down and may again from the second tier

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