An interesting card. You feel like there should be a lot of value, or a lot of false favorites, but identifying the value is tough.
BULLETIN- With a big carryover, Northfield is guaranteeing a $20K Pick 5 pool tonight. 14% Takeout, too. Races 3-7. My play:
25/24/15679/1/1345= $80. A bit large, but well worth it with a $6K Carryover
Sorry, no time to analyze.
Pick 4 $10K Guarantee and 14% Takeout:
27/39/14/147= $24 invested. Just not all that confident in this one.
Race 8: Maiden pacers. 2) Thisonesforjunior is solid and 7) Bewareofthediva gets Noble. The 1)Ava Marie Cam and the 6) A Legend At Last could spoil the ticket here.
Race 9: 3) Sj's Manawa Sam gets my call with Noble, even though Stahl chose off. 9 M B Winner K drops and gets trotting master Don McKirgan.
Race 10: Looks to be a two horse race between the nice sophomore, #4) Lee A Bryant and #1) Crown Time Rambo, whose recent lines are impressiver (yeah, I know).
Race 11: 1)Panskrit, on paper, is clearly the best. But he has let us down in the past and we must back ourselves up. 4) Wow Power got a good tightener in his last and 7 Shannons Boy Scout drops to the level of his last win and gets fresh hands.
And the entire card:
Race 1: 4 Super Donut- Good Q may mean ready in 1st back for super Pork Chop; 2 Northmedo Hoo-ray- Noble will drive the fave, but is 0-17 in 2011; 3 Sullivan’s Travels- Good draw for 1st time w/ a catch driver.
Race 2: 2 Redzilla- Appears the best, but I had to hire an attorney to understand the AE’s; 9 Danny-o- Doesn’t sustain his work, but at least he does some; 5 Canadian Frontier- Also shows recent work, must time the move.
Race 3: 2 Suited n Booted- No value with Noble, but a winner anyway; 5 Jetstream Cruising- Has shown improvement in recent efforts; 1 Thessaly- More effective from the rail, but how much more?
Race 4: 4 Go cowboy Go- Noble chose the class dropper who has been pretty consistent; 2 House Of Green- Drops to the level of his last win, but was overmatched at NW$200PS; 6 Up Front Northern- Always contends, but Noble chose off; 9 I’ve Got Life- Not sure how interested he will be racing from a hole.
Race 5: 9 Mr Sam- Change to Noble could push him over the top; 5 High Gear Speed- Needs to find overdrive after a string of solid efforts; 1 Trytopass Sam- Freshened and gets the rail.
Race 6: 1 Liltycantbdenied- I really don’t see him winning, but none of the others look any better; 6 E C K- Recent strike rate is about 7%, 0% this year; 9 Laag The Mile- Gets a perfect trip, but has $0 earned L5.
Race 7: 3 Liftoff Bayama- Love the change to Stahl here; 1 Tactical Dreamer N- Has faced better and raced better earlier this year; 5 Powerful Cam- Has shown some pop dropping to this level; 4 Jeremy’s Chaser- Should be good (for a while, anyhow) from this draw.
Race 8: 2 Thisonesforjunior- Good seasonal debut and he gets around a half fine; 7 Beware Of The Diva- Sloan-homebred gets Noble off a decent Q; 1 Ava Marie Cam- Closed well and can still go forward.
Race 9: 3 Sj’s Manawa Sam- Moves up off an impressive win. The call even with Ryan choosing off; 9 M B Winner K- Gets class relief for the master; 5 Rose Run Freddie- Only because Stahl chose over my pick.
Race 10: 1 Crown Time Rambo- More experienced than the likely fave, but I would box the exacta; 4 Lee A Bryant- very nice three-year-old is an unproven fast winner; 9 Auto Pilot- Has a bit of back class and is almost 50% on the board lifetime; 3 Lt Commander- Fresh hands angle, Kash to Noble.
Race 11: 1 Panskrit- He has teased us before, but should easily win this; 4 Wow Power- Gets class relief after a needed start; 7 Shannons Boy Scout- Drops to level of his last win and may kick in w/fresh hands.
Race 12: 5 Heez Ruthless N- Drops out of claimers -- cheap ones, granted – to the bottom; 9 Chocolate Crush- Usually does some work; 2 Mcfriendly- Two recent on-the-board finishes equal the rest of the field.
Race 13: 1 Rb’s Luck- Supposed to be a good one and was pressured in local debut; 6 Zhihong Pang- Needs to sustain his work, but he fits; 7 Scooter in Motion- Outside post will hamper him, but how much? 4 Here To Stay- Was overmatched in last, this is a better level for him.
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