Monday June 13, 2011

There is a $10K Guaranteed Pick 4 on races 8-11, with a low 14% takeout (as always).
Here is my play:

234/14/245/23= $36
234/14/5/23= $12

Analysis:
Race 8: 3) I Know Your Lookin ships from Buffalo and those shipper often need a start locally, so add 4)Show Me Big Slick, who is rounding into form, and 2) Winter cruise who may be bravened after beating lesser.
Race 9: 1)Kb's On My Toes beat these last time in the class, but Class Worker is very sharp.
Race 10: It's tempting to single Picasso's Dream, down two classes after a huge mile against the $6s, but I need to protect myself with 4)Magnificent Gift and 2)Dm Fatboy Slim, who threw in a rare bad effort last time.
Race 11: 2)Dr Jacks Shack has been very solid, beating these three back, but 4) Blue Time Overdue gets double class relief.



And the rest of the card:

Race 1: 5 Cologio- Homebred looked like a different animal in that last qualifier; 1 Triple Threat- May have actually arced better than the pick in that Q, but lost; 9 Bo Belle- Maybe racing from a hole will help him. Maybe not.

Race 2: 3 Rounding Third- Nobody knows this one better than Dale does; 2 On The Shady Side- Another chance after the break; 5 Rapid City- The likely favorite has owned this class in the past.

Race 3: 3 Endless Vacation- Fresh hands, McKirgan to Noble,. Who chose over #2 and #4; 9 Powerful Spur- Maybe he figured it out in his last start; 2 Spiker- Gotta pick somebody

Race 4: 2 Aliquippa- NW1L8 must be given serious consideration; 3 Laughing Is An Art- Noble’s choice, but he just isn’t winning races; 1 House Of Green- Dismiss him at your own risk, especially from the rail; 5 Hooser Lion- Is a bit of a tease (oh, the punch lines), but must be looked at seriously here.

Race 5: 1 Gordieisanartist- So he moves back up. Gets the rail off a 53.2 win; 6 Jenna’s Dream- Keeps making big moves late and is furthest in of the Winners Over; 4 S F Dynamite- Post punishes the other logical players.

Race 6: 8 Iknowwhatboyslike- Has been very good forever, may not overcome the snowman, but that’s how to bet; 2 Rose Run Mac- Uncharted territory, but a nice one; 6 Can’t Lose- Yeah, he can, but very good form on Route 23.

Race 7: 1 Delaware Fortune- Third back, the rail and Noble. ‘Nuff said; 4 Gina Marie P- Double class drop makes him a player; 2 Date Knight K- Local return was pretty good and now he gets Aaron; 5 Sometimes Eternal- Fresh horse, third start this year, and he has previous local success.

Race 8: 3 I Know Your Lookin- Monstrous class drop. Will he need a local start? 4 Show Me Big Slick- Third back and racing well; 2 Winter Cruise- May be braver off the win, has contended at this level in the past.

Race 9: 1 Kb’s On My Toes- Did win last time in the class & Charlino chose over my initial choice, who was: 4 Class Worker- Moves up in exceptional form & may surprise; 2 Rocco’s Revenge- One of these days I’ll figure him out.

Race 10: 5 Picasso’s Dream- Raced huge against the sixes last time and is now in for four; 4 Magnificent Gift- Big last quarter and may be closer up this time; 2 Dm Fatboy Slim- Should rebound with the inside draw; 9 Lrs Mamas Boy- Improving each start for owner-driver Stahl and trainer Straub.

Race 11: 2 Dr Jack’s Shack- Gets the call in a competitive group that he beat three back; 3 Blue Time Overdue- Drops down and should be fine; 4 Sleek Fish- First time Noble angle may help.

Race 12: 4 Ata Ata- Now that he (finally) has won, he may string several; 9 Rd Rustler- Inconsistent, but has a chance if one in front of him leaves; 2 Lima Jag- Improved post draw gives him slight hope.

Race 13: 3 Winter’s Finali- NW1L8 gets Aaron, who chose over 1/2/5; 4 I Believe Hoye- Form is improving, but it is it enough? 6 Wildirdge Star- Has only missed the board once recently; 9 Southview Don- Not usre. Class dropper clearly needed the last start, but seemed totally disinterested.