First off, thanks to all of you for your prayers and wishes during Mrs. Giss's surgery. She is doing very well and pissed that the Dr won't let her do more yet (which is no surprise to those of you who know her)
This card is being raced on our 25th anniversary, so I will not be watching it. Considering there are a bazillion NW$600L5 heats AND I have picked three horses from the eight hole, that may not be a bad idea.
Here is a Pick 4 ($10K guarantee and 14% takeout):
156/4569/8/1369=$48
Analysis:
Race 8: Pretty wide open here. 5) Be Bop Beauty will be favored, but I like 1)Scooter In Motionj a bit and 6)Askpedia can't be dismissed.
Race 9: 9)Clayton Delaney has the back class, but it's a first start back off a layoff. 4) Rose run Freddie is racing better over his last few, as is Call Me Merkle. 6)Yesternite is a breaker who could upset the apple cart with a flat mile
Race 10: A very risky single in 8) S F Dynamite, but Stahl chose him over the 1 (and the 6). Has been competitive in what is really "beyond category" races and shows the good local qualifier.
Race 11: Gonna spread out again in a wide-open race. Don't really like 6) Ge's Gilmour- Delaware horses tend to be failures in their Northfield debuts, but there are a lot of question marks. Will 9)S F Stampede show interest if not on top, what will Swartz do with 1)Cousin Mikey. And so it goes. Good Luck.
Race 1: 8 High Gear Speed- risky choice from the snowman, but on paper this one appears several lengths the best in competitive miles; 1 Iliad Lite- With a flat mile, which is a big if; 3 Lotsa Help- Has leveled lately, but still figures.
Race 2: 1 Cummingsandgoings- Just hunch, had no chance in local debut; 5 Leanto Prayer- Tough trip in last, but The Mullet is improving; 4 Jh Action- Moves up off a game win which was better than the line shows.
Race 3: 9 Guile’s Boy- Gets the call as one of two NW1L8; 5 Samcin- The other one, but he appears a few steps slower; 1 Liltycantbedenied- Has more speed than he has shown lately and he may cut the fractions.
Race 4: 8 Phagus Hall- Tough trip in last is like saying Custer’s trip to Little Bighornj was tough; 2 Currently Flying- Only with a price and only because of Noble; 7 Raging Bull- Always does work, will he be close enough to be relevant? 1 Powerful Cam- Seems to be a rail contender despite moving back up.
Race 5: 4 Tidewater Tiki Tai- Catch driver made a huge difference last time and this one has license to go forward; 1 Ava Marie Cam- Came down to me choosing Noble over Majeski; 2 Aggressive Guy- Nice seasonal debut.
Race 6: 1 Red Radar Gun- Charlie, leave, then you won’t jam him up; 9 Red Raider- Very consistent, but hasn’t won since the namesake camp closed; 7 Llc- Maybe fresh hands will push him over the top.
Race 7: 4 Firm Jet- Gets class relief- first tag- and Noble. That should do it; 1 Mr Ballistic- Didn’t blow up in local debut, so things look Rosy for him; 3 Suited n Booted- Continues to do work but not sustain it, one day, maybe; 2 Right On Target- Decent frosh gets a competitive draw in his second sophomore start.
Race 8: 5 Be Bop Beauty- Should graduate from the class tonight; 1 Scooter In Motion- Speedster seems the main competition from the rail; 6 Askpedia- Solid on-the-boarder has teased us in the win column.
Race 9: 9 Clayton Delaney- Was racing well when they quit and picked right back up with the Q; 4 Rose Run Freddie- Form is moving upward & he is a solid player; 5 Call Me Merkle- Raced like he was primed in last, a tell?
Race 10: 8 S F Dynamite- Massive class dropper is my third snowman pick of the night. Shocking. 1 Rapid Pursuit- Will quickly follow the choice; 2 Go Cowboy Go- May be leveling off the barn change, we’ll see- Noble chose over 3/4/7; 5 Auto Pilot- Needs to maintain his speed and maybe get a breather somewhere.
Race 11: 9 S F Stampede- May get a very good trip behind Cousin Mikey but should not be favored; 1 Cousin Mikey- Monster mile last time, will he bounce? 3 Ideal Ticket- Best draw since Bin Laden was alive.
Race 12: 2 Western Empire- Has shown some slight work now and then; 1 Spur’s Arturo- Does moderate work occasionally; 7 Nascart- Does a little bit of work, but not regularly and draws poorly.
Race 13: 3 Aliquippa- Could just as easily be Monaca or Economy, solid player; 1 Ata Ata- The rail makes him a player; 5 Wildridge Star- Third back and improved post off two good efforts; 9 I’ve Got Life- Ata Ata may carry the classy old guy a long way.
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