Monday, July 25, 2011

Wednesday 7/27

Two logical Pick 5 singles tonight- Pray To Me as an ETE class-dropper and Vibrato, so you can go three deep in the other three legs and keep it under $30!

The $10,000 Guaranteed Pool is the Pick 4 on races 8-11 with a 14% takeout.

The play 3569/23/234/36=$48

Analysis:
Race 8: Is wide open. I was tempted to single Pacificam in race 11 so I could go all or close to it.
Race 9: 3)Western Jack is the logical choice. 2) Blissful Court has speed and will add value if he by some miracle hangs on
Race 10: 2)Lucca's Revenge will get crushed at the windows. Last week's break, off the claim, is a big concern. So I am also using 3)Sj's Manawa Sam who is exceptional right now and 4) Date Worthy who is very streaky and had no chance last time.
Race 11: 3)Pacificam looked very good last start, but gets a different driver here. 6) Fueled N Waiting appears to be furthest inside of the higher money earners.

Here are the rest of the picks. Good luck.

Race 1: 6 Going Hollywood- NW1L8 is on a 3rd back angle and gets a slight call; 2 Medoland Jesse- Barn change and JD has experience with the Medolands; 1 R U A Chip- Will be on the point from the rail.

Race 2: 3 Powerful Cam- The kind of race where I‘d rather not pick the favorite, but limited options here; 6 Robin Dontget- Showed a bit two back; 7 VP Hot Rod- Does moderate work most of the time. A maybe.

Race 3: 5 Pray To Me- Eligible-at-time-of-entry for class relief off a win; 4 Seaworthy- Classy veteran needs to do more at this lower level; 1 Lost Photo- Should be well place early.

Race 4: 2 Free Dreams- Just a hunch off a barn change and 1st tag; 3 Vr Rocky Top- Tough trip in move up to this level; 6 Lucky Rockn Horse- Good Q, looked good on Maryland Fair circuit for two days in ‘2010; 8 Wolf Creek Dasher- Closed willingly. Green and still improving, but the snowman hurts.

Race 5: 1 Vibrato- Beat these comfortably last time and should roll; 5 Jh Action- Raced well in recent Sugg start; 7 Cummingsandgoings- Very consistent, but needs to do more to move up the ticket.

Race 6: 4 Cb Attack- Big effort in last and now gets the 3rd start back angle; 2 Liltycantbedenied- usually hangs around and must be considered; 6 Champagne Bliss- Only one with a win in last six.

Race 7: 9 Cause To Smile- Road trouble last time, but raced well in prior starts; 3 Sparkle Tina- Fits well with trainer driving and that’s no Loy; 1 Northern Haze- Has improved with Lasix and the rail won’t hurt; 5 Classy Rocket- Good trip and slow back half in the qualifier, a complete unknown quantity.

Race 8: 3 Northmedo Hooray- Drops to the level of last win and raved well against better; 6 Red Raider- Has been facing better at the Hamburg Fairgrounds; 9 High Gear Speed- Always competes at this class.

Race 9: 3 Western Jack- NW1L8 has been racing a bit better lately; 2 Blissful Court- Needs a breather, but may be cutting this mile and adds value; 4 I’ve Got Life- Always hangs around, a must use in exotics.

Race 10: 3 SJ’s Manawa Sam- Very good draw neutralizes the move up in class; 4 Date Worthy- No chance from the far outside in her last; 2 Lucca’s Revenge- The break last week is my biggest concern; 1 Freedom Hall- Needs the front to be a contender.

Race 11: 3 Pacificam- Not the horse he once was, but can handle these; 6 Fueled N Waiting- Was solid in return off the scratch & faces somewhat softer; 7 Up Front Northern- Killer break last time, another chance.

Race 12: 4 Jeremy’s Chaser- Racing well & on the verge of the breakthrough; 2 He’s All Art- Easier time getting the top here if he wants it; 1 Up Front Carl- Break last time cost him, was racing well before that.

Race 13: 6 Tally Ho Don- Racing well in a late start to his 2011 campaign; 4 Zeus’s Spirit- Seems to like the Route Eight oval; 5 Hope To Finish- Just a hunch he’ll be better with a start under his belt; 8 Shannon’s Boy Scout- Upward form cycle, downward post-draw cycle.

1 comment:

aaronbiederman said...

Nice stab in the 4th, Giss. Nailed it right on -- $327 tri!!