Friday, July 8, 2011

Monday Thoughts

A tough card with some nice youngsters who could step up or who could disappoint. And we get a $10K guaranteed Pick 4 with a 14% takeout on races 8-11

The Play: 24569/245/123/1= $45

Race 8: Wide Open affair and would love to hit the all button here.
Race 9: 5) Ilooklikerudy has come up short his last few starts, buts is due. 2) Rose Run Freddie is always solid and draws well, while 4)Diehl's Deal has won more races than any other trotter at Northfield this year. He drops in poor form.
Race 10: 1) Goodnite Wilbur- I liked him last time and he always gives effort. 2)Rapid City beat better six back and takes a double drop, while 3) Guile's Boy moves up off a good win and they opened up the race for him.

Here are the rest of the picks. I hope to at least catch the end of the card from Vernon. Good Luck.


Race 1: 1 Magnaflo- Have to pick him due to the Sergio Corona factor; 9 Abby- Should keep improving in purses races; 2 Natural Sevens- Draws well and has done some work, just needs to learn to sustain it.

Race 2: 5 Master Lad Pro- NW1L8 gets a double class drop and has been competitive w/better; 9 Altesse- Should go forward with Noble driving; 2 Stock Boy Freddie- Current form poor, but draws well for the first time in a while.

Race 3: 2 Rose Run Nellie- Filly is still figuring it out but can win with a flat trip; 4 Powerful Spur- Improving with each start; 9 Rose Run Louie- Closed well in last start and may have more in the tank.

Race 4: 9 Star Drifter N- A hunch that he’ll benefit from a racing style change; 2 Museum Piece- As consistent as you could want, must use in exotics; 1 Search The Falcon- Has tactical speed and may cut this one; 6 Powerful Cam- Usually does a little work and has been caught in some fast miles for the class.

Race 5: 5 Cody Coy- Raced well in the OSS career debut; 3 Sams Yankee- A major player if he trots both laps; 1 Pocketbooktreasure- Arguably faced better at The Meadows.
Race 6: 4 Mr Fenton- Fresh horse gets the only driver whose UDRS is over The Mendoza Line and even then it depends on which interpretation you use; 3 Abc Flower- Maybe class relief will help; 2 Diva Two- Another class dropper who can contend with these.

Race 7: 9 Pure Fantasy- Gets Merriman and has previous local success; 3 Egotistic Pro- Twice-beaten fave since returning; 1 Mr Kite- Gets class relief and the rail; 2 Cambest In Motion- Draws well, drops and gets Noble.

Race 8: 9 Key Western- This is a tough group for the class, but getting Noble gives him the edge; 4 Native Fate- I picked this one to win until Noble chose off; 2 Chocolate Crush- Just too inconsistent to put higher on the ticket.

Race 9: 5 Ilooklikerudy- Has disappointed at times but looks the best here; 2 Rose Run Freddie- Should be solid from inside; 4 Diehl’s Deal- Winningest local trotter has leveled , but does get class relief and Noble.

Race 10: 1 Goodnite Wilbur- “Flew” late to get the last win, always tries; 9 Ccs Belief- Gets class relief after a game effort against three claimers; 3 Guiles Boy- Must consider if only because they opened up the race for him; 2 Rapid City- Gets class relief, dropping below the level of his last win.

Race 11: 1 Cruisn The Waves- Moves up off an eye-popping win; 6 Dm Ion- Always rolls late and his style is a perfect foil to the top pick’s style; 4 Scooter In Motion- Raced well coming off a sick scratch, will he bounce?

Race 12: 2 Suited N Booted- Moves to a hot barn and may go forward with Sugg driving; 5 Bell Valley Diva- Racing well and may be better value than the ML; 7 Bella Bionda- Draws poorly, but always gives good effort.

Race 13: 4 Eddie C Hanover- Three-year-old has more upside than the others; 5 Standin On a Beach- Gets his best local draw and Merriman; 2 Styler- Eaily beat lesser, but may have to battle early for the lead; 8 Ramember- Last start was impressive and this one is a hunch, since the trip may be similar.

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