I still think tonight's best bet is Ohio State over Kentucky-- they are fundamentally sounder and more experiences, but the rules say I have to pick horses too. I feel like I got stuck on a lot of favorites here, but on second glance, maybe not. Very playable card if the prices meet your criteria (ie: a night where money management may trump handicapping, and if you have seen my 'capping lately, that is probably a good thing). Good Luck!
Race 1: 6 Northmedo Esther- Will be no value, but has won here before; 5 Viking Mia- raced well with the flat mile & appears the main challenger; 4 Golden Slippers- Always does some work & worth a shot.
Race 2: 3 Ellie Deer- Moves up off a dominating win & J.D. chose over 2/4/5; 2 Commissioned N- Matbe she will finish stronger for Stahl; 5 Hollysfolly- Contends with her best and may add some value.
Race 3: 1 Section Line Adina- As solid as they come lately; 4 TT’s Little Lass- Should be flying late and if we get the ML, worth a chance on top; 2 C R Dream- Continues to race better each week.
Race 4: 5 Sand Song- Well-traveled, but seems to race best here, could be a decent price; 4 Rosie Caribia- Giving way late of late, form failing? 6 Miss Big Time- Moves back up off a very impressive effort; 9 Gadjet- Tough trip last time, ignore at your own risk.
Race 5: 4 Saratoga’s Best- They opened up class to keep her in it, versatile mare; 1 Redmeansgo- She is the NW$302 & she gets the rail; 9 Terebithia- Can follow the 2nd choice around twice for a good result.
Race 6: 5 Forever Friends- Gets the call in a well-matched group; 3 Filigreed- Inconsistent, but they opened it up for her, consider; 2 Krissy K- A return to her old style last week may be a tell for this race.
Race 7: 9 Clarksville Jazz- Moves up, but usually puts in good effort; 2 Jessies Band- Risky as she hasn’t shown much since the sick scratch; 3 Miss Port Foal Leo- Sugg chose in favor of the #2; 1 Stand Out Girl- Not much gate speed, but seems to race better from inside.
Race 8: 2 Stox Up Bluegrass- Huge wakeup call in her last, easy winner if she fires; 1 French Worker- Will defend the rail; 5 Towner’s Great Lady- Drops to the level of a dominating win, why so flat last 4?
Race 9: 6 Coras Grace- Risky pick coming off the break, but I could not find anyone to beat her; 9 Cn Loufly Loretta- Keeps finding ways to be on the ticket; 1 Blueridge Flirting- Has speed, rail helps.
Race 10: 4 Forever Lucky- Class relief and good recent work, NW1L8; 2 I Love Being Right- Class dropper fits the main condition now; 1 Sydney Hanover- Break cost her all chance, try again; 5 Shadyplace- Usually competes in this class, but is just 1-39 winning in ’09-10.
Race 11: 3 Eagle Winter- Slight edge in what seems a 2-horse race on paper; 1 Freenezdowntheroad- But you better believe I am boxing the exacta and stacking the trifecta; 8 Inawhile Crocodile- Has the racing style to pick up the pieces if the faves get stupid.
Race 12: 2 I Give You My Word- Looking to pick up an easy win before leaving? 5 Tiffany Malone- Class relief and usually does work, could surprise; 4 Allamerican Dora- Beat these in last, new driver.
Race 13: 2 Cruisin Delight- Class drop really helped her last time; 4 Imagine Freedom- Class relief and did work in first start back off a sick scratch; 7 Hawthorne Maria- Gonna use her here even though Kurt chose off; 6 Love N Devotion- NW1L8, but she is actually a NW1 life, which is a bit of a difference.
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