I am hearing a lot of gamblers complaining these days... we are racing too many races...too many cheap horses...too many form reversals... and they say they are staying away. While I disagree on points 1 and 3 and agree on point 2, the thing I cannot understand is why these players are staying away from our Pick 5 and Pick 4 when there is a carryover.

Carryovers are like playing with the house's money and often a carryover results in a return of close to 100% of the amount wagered, instead of the typical 77.5% return. Look at the Friday, November 7 Pick 5. The carryover was $1,700 and about $8,600 was bet into the pool, meaning the takeout was about $1,935. That means we paid out $8,365 or 97% of what was bet. That alone makes the Pick 5 a must play, but then, have a look at the play itself--

There were three winning favorites in the Pick 5- 3-5 Lookin Ata Sadie, 11-10 Krissy K and 6-5 Andi Andi. The other two winners were second choices-- 7-5 Sharons Future (basically a co-favorite) and the "value" horse, 5-2 Ain't No Tellin Now. THE PICK FIVE PAID $236.60. On a $1 wager. If you had gone 2 deep in each leg, and spent $32 you would have gotten a nearly 7-1 payoff - nearly twice what the Pick 5 "should" have paid.

I know it is just one example, but keep it in mind. Even if you have cut your Northfield play, these carryovers warrant yourt attention.

I also want to mention that there have been an awful lot of "long" exactas and trifectas lately. There is a general rule of thumb that if you multiply the winner's win price x the place horse's place price, the exacta will be close to the same amount. For a tri, multiply win x place x show horse's show to estimate the expected tri price. Lately, the exactas have been exceeding the win x place payoffs on a regular basis. For the trifectas, it does not happen quite as often, but when it does, the payoff is often twice the predicted level. Ironically, I have received only one e-mail complaining about these long prices, and when I did , it was pretty much tongue in cheek. But when a tri or exacta comes back allegedly "short," I get e-mails out the wazzoo. Folks, they are seperate pools and these predictors are guidelines, nothing more. Perhaps somebody is making big win plays that skew the pools. Or some big exacta players are on cold streaks. But I prefer to think that what this means is simply that there is value to be found right now in our exacta and trifecta pools. I find my plays changing, as I am normally more of a win bettor and at least half of my small wagering volume is now going into these exotic, every race wagers.

Want to talk about it? Post a comment or catch me on the apron any night I am doing my picks!