When I gamble, typically, my game plan is pretty simple. I am a win player who looks to grind out a small ($50-100) profit each time I am seriously playing. But in last week’s Belmont Stakes, a catastrophic occurrence forced me to change my game plan. I was pretty sure Big Brown would not win. I just did not feel the amount of work he had would be enough for him to be controllable and in condition for a one-and-a-half mile race. Needless to say, I was thrilled when Casino Drive entered. The game plan was $50 to win on him, figuring odds of 7-2. He was my winner. But then he came up lame on race day and scratched. What to do?
There was no horse I had any particular faith in—I had said Derby Day that Denis of Cork would beat Big Brown in the Belmont, but I needed a play that would cover me if DOC raced poorly. He was an unconvincing second choice. If I was truly convinced by him, I could have bet $10 to win and maybe a $1 exacta up and down, but I was just not comfortable keying any one horse on a 90-degree, 75% humidity day in New York. So it was time to change the game plan. There would be no win bet that day, Instead, I bet $64—a sizeable play for me, especially since this was “not a wholesome trottin' race, no!But a race where they set down right on the horse! Like to see some stuck-up jockey' boy Sittin' on Dan Patch?” Make your blood boil? It would have, if Big Brown had won. But, firm in my commitment that the Dutrow-trainee would bounce, race poorly or just generally stink up the joint, I bet an exacta “All except BB with All.” Now, I got lucky that the longest shot on the board won, and unlucky that the second choice ran second, but I am not about to complain. I had found a way to guarantee that I would cash if my analysis was right, and to have a solid chance to make a decent profit. Even a Denis of Cork/Big Brown exacta would have paid enough to cover the ticket, (probably). One other point I want to make about betting horses -- if I am workng, I bet the horses I pick. I may reverse them in the exacta, or play a box, or bet my 2nd choice to win if the top choice is 1-5 and thge 2nd choice is 6-1, but i do not play games with my picks and my wagers. The track pays me well to do my job and I am not about to do anything to jeopardize that, like giving out the #6-3-2 and then betting the 4-5 exacta. When I tell horse owners, many of whom I know pretty well , "slide me a $50 and I won't pick your horse, IT"S A JOKE." They all want to avoid the Giss of Death (a pharse that was coined by former trainer and current pro poker star Craig Stein), but nobody has ever bribed me not to pick their horse.
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