Tuesday, February 22, 2011

Wednesday thoughts

Hoping we sneak in a carryover tot he Pick 5, otherwise not much to say-- but note the trend to some big numbers lately-- with the switch next week to a four day schedule we will see (likely) more nine horse fields and a few less $1600 races. Good luck!

Race 1: 1 Fast And Fearless- Unreal effort was done in by the break, another chance; 5 Possessive Power- Decent qualifier and has license to go forward; 3 Ruth Emajean- First Noble makes her usable.

Race 2: 1 Conway Maid- Liked her last start from outside, rail is huge; 7 Garland’s Brat- Gets class relief and Noble, post hurts; 4 Go Merrily Along- Would be on top of my ticket if not for the sick scratch.

Race 3: 4 Ellie Deer- Seems to be in a peaking form cycle; 1 Doowrah Silver- Gets the rail and class relief, but will be overbet; 5 Clarksville Jazz- Wildly inconsistent, but contends with her best for Noble.

Race 4: 9 Gordieisanartist- Showed improvement returning to the Route 8 oval; 3 Big Bad Tj- Gets class relief but needs to sustain his work; 7 Littlereb- Best form of these, but post is a concern; 6 Rhino- Could easily horn in on the action.

Race 5: 4 Jjs Request- Appears best of the NW1L8, who have a huge advantage at this level; 8 C R Dream- Great form, awful post; 6 French Worker- Often contends, rarely wins.

Race 6: 5 American Grace K- Beat these two back, broke in last, who shows up? 1 Count N Caloris- In a bit softer and the rail helps; 3 Forevervictorious- Risky pick with 43 days since his last flat mile.

Race 7: 7 Hummer N- Eligible at time of entry and should win despite the post; 6 He’s All Art- Massive class relief, but has only shown one decent recent effort; 3 Balin Hanover- JD chose off, but I am going against his choice here; 1 Tactical Dreamer N- Fried by the trip in local debut, another chance.

Race 8: 3 Soul Redeemer- Classy old guy is overdue, maybe tonight? 1 Stonebridge Falcon- Impressive win at the bottom, although the fractions helped; 6 Awesome Abe- Shows some recent work.

Race 9: 4 Legacy Chip- Should not miss a beat with the barn change; 2 Rhapwiththestars- Third back, but we need a flat mile; 8 Athlete In Action- Gets Massive class relief, can he overcome the snowman?

Race 10: 2 Picasso’s Dream- No Motorcycle Mike tonight; 6 Nuclear Cam- Returns home and gets class relief; 3 Gold Fever- Moves up off a good win, has earned $400K lifetime; 7 Zipsnapndrop- Can’t remember the last time he did not contend at this level, must use on the ticket.

Race 11: 3 Mom’s Looker- Eligible at time of entry & a good post and Noble; 6 Lucca’s Revenge- has faltered slightly last couple, but he’s still in the mix; 9 Tala Lady- Well-connected and a good local debut.

Race 12: 1 Chocolate Crush- Amy will stop complaining about post draws after tonight; 2 Oh My Sam- Looks like he fits; 4 Western Eddie- Ends a string of bad draws & shows he can contend from inside.

Race 13: 1 Western Jack- Nothing but a rail hunch in a race where I see no winner; 3 Rapid City- Make sure to visit Reptile Gardens while you are there; 8 Mr Dreamer- Why not? 4 Raging Bull- aced gamely in his qually and may be facing softer here. Class relief off a qualifier? Yep.

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