So my win rate is way up over the last few weeks, but my ROI isn't. Things have been pretty chalky over the Flying Turns of late and while I am a value player, you can't let the favorites keep running over your money. At times, you play the chalk and look to maximize (with exactas or Pick threes,, etcetera) and wait until you start seeing value.
And this is the time of year where that happens...lots of youngsters starting their seasons. Watch the maidens and NW2 races closely-- especially for horses making moves from the back where the line may not be that impressive.
Good luck!
Race 1: 5 Excellent Caviar- A flier on Snuffy, this trotter is fast and others have ?’s; 1 Mary My King- Consistent sort and draws the rail; 9 Rose Run Impetus- Usually does work, a chance.
Race 2: 3 Double Dribble- Will be overbet but was flying after road trouble in the slop; 7 I Be Strollin- Gets Stahl, but probably needs a start or two; 9 Hatsoff For Gracie- 1st time Kakaley.
Race 3: 9 Fox Valley Oberon- Good return off layoff, will be better tonight; 4 Cole Moment- Was a different horse first Lasix in last; 1 Tucson Lace- The kind of race and post where she figures.
Race 4: 3 Electric Highlight- Best draw in seven starts and she still has 3 wins; 4 Paint Wheel- Double or triple class jump but was huge in last; 9 Shelbys Muneymaker- Ultraconsistent and no Memphis Glow here; 6 Darting Larkin- Sophomore should continue to go forward, a real factor.
Race 5: 3 Dynastar- Double class drop will be the key here; 5 Kimmy Cruiser- Showed signs of waking up in last, she’s just three; 4 Rosie’s Sweetie- Has not sustained work against better, but a good fit with these.
Race 6: 1 Passing Lane Penny- Gets the rail after facing nothing but quality; 7 Weekie Wachie- Post will be an issue, a strategy change may be in order; 8 Jl’s Nite Music- Only one way this one goes off the gate to be effective, and that is forward, snowman’s a killer.
Race 7: 1 Holdzmfromfloopin- Class relief off a 9-length, 54.3 win? Are you kidding me! 9 Wildfire Osborne- Equipment cost her last time, follows the winner in the flow; 5 Colossal Sahbra- Very sharp, but faces good young ones; 2 First To Cruise- Another quality youngster.
Race 8: 4 Silky Sailor- Has one bad race in her last what, 100 or so? 3 Game Sophie- Aaron chose off for #4, that’s a key; 1 Virtual Dream- A virtual lock on the ticket with the rail.
Race 9: 6 Bette Lavec- Impressed in last; 5 Tori’s Angel- May race well off the freshening; or may not; 3 Wansering Dream- Always a hard one to figure for Elvis’s army buddy.
Race 10: 2 Stormy Gray Sea- Class relief and Kakaley, go cash; 4 April Fool Days- Does work most of the time, does not always sustain; 5 Mommas Gone Cruzin- Did not like the track last week; 1 Doowrah’s Stand- Can be a minor player from the rail.
Race 11: 7 Modern Mojo- Big mile off a layoff against a sharp one in last; 4 Ursula K- Finally getting it, perhaps; 1 Triple Diamond- Got in a needed start and will improve tonight.
Race 12: 4 Fox Avenue Mom- Made a believer of me last week; 7 Peggy Spur- Was rolling late for Charlino in last; 6 Ilooklikevada- Still racing well, just not as well, may easily win with best.
Race 13: 5 Fin For Eva Mo- I’m a George Mueller fan, but he’s no Ryan Stahl in the bike; 3 B B Big Girl- Gets along with Charlino and will fly late; 1 Winning Yankee- Should be named Showing Yankee tonight.
Race 14: 4 Tequila- Eat the worm and move on; best bet; 2 Rhiannon O Rhye- Consistent at this level and draws well; 5 Scooters Clan- Tough trip in last, when Matt chose her over the Agave drink; 1 Fleur De Le- Not in great form, but gets a small piece here from the rail.
No comments:
Post a Comment