At the request of several patrons, both local and across the country, I am going to start posting picks for nearly every live card here on the blog. There may be days that I miss and on big event weeks (Battle of Lake Erie, Courageous Lady, Cleveland Classic, etc) we may go only with the featured night's card while I do my other work here. I will give advance notice of vacations, as well.
Analysis may be more in depth on the nights I am doing the televised picks, so I will note that, too (I am on Friday and Saturday this weekend, but not tonight). So, here we go:
Race 1: 1 Fidencio-Sugg's choice; 3 Sky Strikes- class relief, but Sugg chose off; 4 NF Gallivant- can hang around
Race 2: 6-Sporty Moran-improving and can compete at this level; 1 Machmachwhosthere- big heart, bad-gaited. Rail not the best spot for him; #5 Honey Is That You- change of scenery, class drop
Race 3:(Start the Pick 5 with a $6,156+ carryover-- see below)
#1 Bankers Dream- Kakaley and the rail; 6 SJ's Chuck- Flip posts and I flip picks; 2 Tricky Game- Has ability for solid trotting barn
Race 4:1 Barratry- Can only beat himself; 5 Dangerous Presence- Swartz is underrated; 6 Forever To The Top- consistent; 3 David Erol- recovering from scratch, no chance in last;
Race 5: 4 Smok'n Coalburner-flat mile wins by the length of the stretch; 2 Dublin Dollars-first back off sick scratch-red flag; 1 Mytsical Victor- will protect post position
Race 6: 1 Title Shot-Sturgeon to Stahl; 'nuf said; 3 T Tar's Magic Man- solid connections and has been facing better; 9 See Buns-gets a trip here
Race 7: 9 G Rod-class relief, unfortunate draw for speedster; 1 Big Guy Forever- class drop and great post; 3 Get A Jet- must use on tris/supers; 5 Powerful Cam-rounding into good form cycle
Race 8: 7 Rose Run Freddie- Dominated first time Aaron; 1 Willmania- new set of hands; 8 Spur On Begonia- 44 (that is the program comment code for "post hurt")
Race 9: 6 Count Masone-A different horse with Matt K; 9 Tyler's Charm-decent local debut; 4 Our Little Pilgrim- Tom Gray brings 'em ready
Race 10: 9 Robin Dontget- Red-hot barn and gets a perfect trip; 1 Romance's Thunder-has yet to race badly, will be doing more work than top choice; 3 Stand By Yourself-best draw in 3 months; 2nd back; 8 Hog Wild Rodeo- Quality, but not from out here
Race 11: 5 Striking Genius- tons of back class, but....; 9 El Tigger- consistent; see two back; 6 Mr Mime-quality connections
Race 12:4 Misty's Dignity-cheapest he's raced in ages; 2 Never-2nd back, improved post; 1 Trouble Lurking-in fine form
Race 13: 1 Jates Rookie- Maine invader is 0 for' 08-09, but it IS nw$600L5 for a reason; 7 Cg's Wonder-triple class drop; 4 Jockee's Tornado- Blows in from Lebanon cheaper than last time
Race 14: 2 Eza Rich King- class drop for decent closer; 9 Thebigguyfromtown- Has leveled of late; 3 In The Money Sam-should cut it-can he hang on; 5 El Vonte Q- tough trip in last.
Pick five play. While I prefer Pick four play, any time you have a carryover you MUST at least consider playing the Pick 5. Low budget- split a ticket with a buddy. This is the one time when the odds truly are in your favor, since there will likely be more money paid out than is wagered tonight.
The problem is that the two best candidates to single (Barratry and Smok'n Coalburner) both show a tendency to break. So we need to hedge a bit. If I was sure neither would break, my ticket would look like this:
126/1/4/1239/1359 ($48)
But, now I have to either spend a bit more or cut a horse latyer because I need to protect myself.
So, let's try this
16/1/123/1359 and
16/356/4/1359 ($24 each for a total of $48). Now I just need one of them to win, but if they both win, I am stuck, so we might play this and invest $64:
16/1/1234/1359 ($32)
16/1356/4/1359($32)
This way, if they both win, (and assuming the #2 Tricky Game in the 3rd doesn't make me pay for droppign him) I cash for $2 instead of $1, somewhat justifying the added expense.
Let me know what you think! Now go cash.
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