December 2007

posted Friday 12/28 12:30PM

It's ironic- laughable, really, that after I post about some good website forums, that some clown on an inappropriate board ( I will not even name it here-- they don't deserve that kind of publicity) decides to illegally copy my photo from this website or one of the ones I suggested, and start posting under my name. That will all be in the hands of the attorneys shortly, but let's go on record, without hiding behind screen names and false identities-- something the gutless wonders at the other site do on a regular basis. I post at the forums listed below (under a name that is a derivative of my real name). At Cleveland.com, I post as billings. I also have posted in the past at the Northfield horseman's board, which is basically now inactive. Lastly, I post semi-regularly on TrackChampion and Sports Talkers Horse Forum, the reincarnation of the great HotTalkers board, as well. I also post on a few soccer related forums, not that it matters. I do not and have never posted at barntowire or the Chicgao-based site which it spawned -- the one I refuse to name. Nor will I.

I appreciate everybody who asked whether it is really me posting and I especially appreciate those who have sent me letters of support regarding this defamation of character.

posted 3:30 Wednesday 12/19
With the holidays coming up, I will be taking some time off and will not be posting a great deal until after the first of the year-- I will try to get in when I can. I wanted to mention a few websites other than northfieldpark.com that could be beneficial. All are interactive (ie: forums/message boards). Cleveland.com, the Plain Dealer's website, has a forum with a horse racing category that is pretty much dead. That contributes to the PeeDee's lack of horseracing coverage. Get an ID and post something there -- http://www.cleveland.com/forums/horseracing/. The first Northfield message board, http://www.juniorstips.com/ , doesn't see the traffic it once did, but it is worth checking out for Tony Salvaro, Junior's (get it) picks. http://www.juniorstips.com/. One of the best handicapping discussion sites around is the awkwardly named http://thebeliever2.proboards83.com/index.cgi? Several top handicappers post there and the decorum is outstanding-- we will argue angles and strategies, but it is always done respectfully. Fastest growing of all is probably http://www.inthesulky.com/ . There is a lot of Northfield coverage and a lot of fun. While it gets a bit risque at times, the board is monitored closely to make sure things stay appropriate. If you have some time off from work the next week or so, check them out!

posted 2:30PM Tuesday 12/18
We had a coupled double digit payoff winners last night and I think that is an important thing for a public handicapper. Anybody can go out there, pick nothing but stone cold faves and hit at 40%. I am hitting a bit below that this year (38% win rate) but am getting some good prices. If you are a win bettor, keep a minimum payoff in mind -- a number below which you won't bet the horse flat. For me it's 2-1. I don't have the bankroll to chase 1-2 horses in the win pool, although I may look for a place overlay. Instead, I will take my normal $20 win bet and split it into two $10 exactas, provided I can still get my 2-1 return rate. If not, I may just double my money... fold it in two and put it back in my pocket.

Tonight, a couple horses may be worth chasing, but only a couple will be worth the price. Dia Magdalene will be closing hard in the 9th race trot and may be 4 or 5-1. Parsons Hat appears to be a lock in the 1oth, but he will be even money, if that. In the 12th Anacostia is my best bet. This one finally got it together last week after several flat efforts and Loney horses are streaky. Even though still racing at the bottom, Anacostia has ten win in 39 starts this year and was just about a 25% winner last year as well. He should be favored, but we might get 2-1 on him. Good luck!

posted 2:30PM Friday 12/14
Pick Four was finished early but there is no way Ginn would have been on my ticket. Oh well, ended up with a few bucks on VW Bug, which salvaged the evening. I spent yesterday afternoon at MetroHealth with Keith Kash, Jr., Aaron Merriman and Wyatt Irvine, as they gave out toys on the pediatric ward. The kids treated the guys (who were in their colors) like real celebrities, which they were on this day. Here are a few pics.

No handicapping tips tonight-- jammed up with work, so you will have to watch me on TV tonight, but let's hope the weather holds off. One note-- Matt Kakaley is not only the hottest driver on the track right now, but the has a positive ROI over the last 7 and 30 days, which is rare. Bet him.

Its Miller Time commented at 4PM on Friday: Just a note to comment on the guys spending the day with the kids at Metro. I think that its awesome that they took their own time to give something back to kids who in many cases have so little hope. I'm sure that they were able to brighten a lot of spirits! Kudos to them for their efforts. Plus, what a great PR opportunity for the sport and the track! Great job, guys

posted 3 PM Wednesday 12/12
Not an attractive Pick Four, but we will take a shot anyhow. In the 8th race (why would we use a maiden claimer in the P4?), let's go with Billy Bob's Scooter over Rr Shorty and throw both on our Pick Four. In the 9th, Charming Comer would be a single fro me from post five or in, but he draws the 7 hole and there are too many options. Hate to say it, 'cause I can't afford it, but I am hitting the ALL button here. That guarantees that Charming Comer will win, lol. In the 10th, Nuclear Cam is far and away the best on paper, but his last concerns me just a bit. Still, I have to save some money here so we will single him. In the 11th, Scoremania should get the top, but there is no way I am singling Dan Kennedy. Throw on the #1 Secret Boy and the 7 and 8, as well. So, our ticket looks like this: 46/123456789/3/1278, a $72 play. I will probably also play a small ticket something like 46/57/12/12 to cover a Nuclear Cam loss. Wish me luck. See you tomorrow!

posted 11:00 AM Wednesday 12/12
Aaarghh. It stinks when a 1-5 single breaks in the first turn of your pick 4. It's called The Giss of Death (coined by former trainer and current pro poker player Craig Stein). Fortunately, I did not take my own advice--see below, and in addition to buying a $16 ticket singling Johnnys Reactor and Thee Town Hero (who also broke), I bought a $9 saver with DD Cam Ram and my top three picks in races 10 and 11, so I still cashed for a few bucks on a 3 of 4. Now we get a $6K carryover in the Pick 4 and that makes tonight a MUST PLAY.

Any time you have a carryover wager, you negate the effects of takeout and that means you need to play it if you can find any kind of value or sure thing. Even going three deep in each leg is just $81 and a worthwhile play. I will be back later today, posting my play, but get a program now and go for it!

posted 2:45 Tuesday, December 11
Sorry I haven't posted in a few days. Lots going on, not the least is the announcement of two new wagers here starting in 2008. We are introducing ten-cent superfectas and a Pick-Five bet. The dime superfectas, available on the 4th, 7th, 10th and final race each night. The supers can be bet with tellers or on self-serve machines, and should be available through nearly all of Northfield’s simulcast partners, as well. The Pick Five, on races 3-7, is a $1.00 wager and features a carryover if it isn’t hit. Anytime the Pick Five is not hit, 25% of that night’s pool will be returned to bettors, with 75% carrying over to the next racing night. If all five winning horses are selected, the whole pool, plus any carryover, is paid to the holder of any winning tickets. In other words, it mirrors the format of our Pick-Four.

Now for my take. Ten-cent supers are fun to play and may get some people involved in pools who would not be otherwise. I confess to doing this myself. Back in the days before Ohio’s state government legislatively protected us from 2nd-hand smoke, I would sometimes head out to our television carrels and smoke I nice Dominican double corona and watch some racing action in the afternoon after finishing my regular work and while waiting for our live evening card. Since this was often t-bred racing, which I know nothing about, I might play a five-horse super box for $12 on a hunch. I even hit a few decent ones. Having said that, I do not like dime supers. Many of the people who wager them have no idea how much they are spending and then have to change their plays because they only have $4.60 in their pocket and have no idea what a bet calculator is. These folks refuse to use a self-bettor, for whatever reason, as well. Other bettors get shut out on this and other (simulcast) races. For the players who like to take down a whole pool (whether true whales playing offshore, or the dolphins who still actually still come to the track) it makes the superfecta a less attractive wager. For every guy we lose who normally dumps $100 into a super, we need to find ten small players to cover him. It will be interesting to watch what happens with our pools and with our patrons’ response.

Speaking of Pick Fours--VERY PLAYABLE TONIGHT!! Even for a small bettor. There is no carryover, but there are TWO solid singles -- Johnnys Reactor, who moves up in the 8th off a 1:55.3 win, but is still facing NW 250PS, and Thee Town Hero in the 11th, making his second start for new connections off a big effort where he finished third against better. Go four deep in the other two legs and you are only spending $16. Three deep in each and its $9. I haven't totally capped the card yet, but I am thinking 2/1346/2379/1 as a $16 play. I will try to post an update around 4:30.

posted 1:30 Wednesday 12/5
Well. our late double paid $7.20 last night, with Gelika Ann and SF Puree. Better than not cashing and better than a $20 win bet on Sf Puree ($4.20). Gelika Ann was a clear lock. But what about the parlay? That is the ultimate test of whether a double was a good play. We bet a $20 double, so we got back $72 -- $52 profit. $20 to win on Gelika Ann would have given us back $26. $26 to win on Sf Puree would have returned $54.60, so we did well. Keep in mind, a scheduled parlay wager (Double, Pick Three, Pick Four, etc), usually pays better because of takeout. Those wagers, in Ohio, have a takeout of 22.5%. A win wager has a takeout of 18%, or $3.60 of our $20 bet. When we make the second half of the parlay, we lose 18% again of what remains, an effective takeout of 32.75%. Ouch. We are giving away a third of our money on a two-horse parlay!

In tonight's last November To Remember Final, for pacing colts and geldings, I am going with Green Acres Pill to pull a minor upset. He is improving, but trainer Kevin Ehrhardt sys he is still very green. Still, he looks like he may be getting good at the right time and he could upset Stand And Shout at a decent number (4-1?). Use Linn's Dream and Imaybeit, despite post eight, at the bottom of the tri.

posted 2:20 PM Tuesday 12/4
How good was the battle between Image Master and Bizzness Trip last night? Two very evenly matched horses, battling as a pair for the better part of a quarter mile, with neither getting the upper hand until the last five jumps. If these two raced ten times, it would probably be 5-5. I like both owner-trainers, Dean Beachy, whose horse won, and Dee Hotton, whose horse didn't. Both have gone out of there way to help me out with my amateur driving exploits and neither is afraid to pull the trigger on a rehab project.

Tonight we have two November Top Remember finals, and while I think the only horse who can beat The Master's Lady in the$6,400 trot is The Master's Lady (her only loss in the series came when she made a break), but watch Dia Magdalene. A crappy trip from the 2nd tier cost her when the cover went nowhere last week, but Ralph Miller has a nice one here. At 8-1 ML, use her on the ticket and if the fave implodes...

On paper, they might as well just give Gelika Ann the check in the $6,200 Mare Pace. I see no value here, as the next three choices --Lookin Ata Sadie, No More Tears and Standing pretty -- are my next three. Let's put Gelika Ann in a big late double -$20-- with S F Puree and Willie Schwartz in the nitecap. The horse dropped down last week and raced big despite a second-tier start,

posted 12:00 PM Monday 12/3
Tonight's November to Remember Final for trotting colts and geldings is a wide-open affair and lake effect may have a great deal to do with the outcome. Lake Effect is not a horse, of course, but the wind blowing across Lake Erie, dumping snow on our facility, part of the secondary snow belt as A.J. Colby calls it. Three of the four preliminary legs of the series were held on sloppy tracks, and if the the temps drop as predicted, the track may be snowy, but fast tonight by the time the 12th race rolls around. If it stays a bit warmer, the track could be swampy. And the winds, which were gusting to 50MPH early this AM, will certainly affect horses on the front or first-over. Subject to change with weather conditions, I am going with Image Master, who gets the rail and seems to know how to sit a two-hole trip to victory, with Victory's Desire, who should be 2nd over and get carried to the lane, underneath in the exacta.