Smokin With the Giss - Harness Racing and Real World commentary from Keith Gisser

I love Christmas and Almost Everything Associated With It

2011-12-19T09:48:00.000-08:00

I love this season. I love the music (even the goofy songs like There’s Something Stuck up in the Chimney); I love movies (even the goofy ones like the Groundhog Day-like Twelve Dates of Christmas on ABC Family), but most of all I love the commercials (even the goofy ones like the crazy Target lady working out for her Christmas shopping) . Among the best are the Hershey’s Kisses in We Wish You a Merry Christmas: www.youtube.com/watch?v=4HtSLF4vlrk, or the M&Ms (the relatively new Hungry Eyes is not as good as this: www.youtube.com/watch?v=iE8CJwXSPRs. Anybody remember the ginbgerbread family Go Phone ads with Steve Buscemi’s voice as the dad? Oh wait, Steve Buscemi’s voice is in every commercial. Or is he just in every movie? I forget. And there is the Mac vs PC animated Christmas ad with John Hodgman (who is a very underrated and funny guy, by the way). And who can forget the Heineken Holiday 5-pack? And I really miss the Norelco “Noelco” ads of my childhood, where Santa uses a Norelco electric razor as a sled.So I love Christmas commercials. But not all of them.Back in 1982, Folgers did a really cute |Christmas ad called Peter, or Peter Comes Home. It is really, really cute. Here is the link: www.youtube.com/watch?v=I4kNl7cQdcUIn 2009, they chose to modernize it and it is just way too creepy for me. Here it is: www.youtube.com/watch?v=yOQk_pWmisA&feature=relatedNow, I don’t KNOW if this guy’s name is Peter, although Folger’s and their ad people insist it isn’t. And maybe I am the weird one thinking there is more going on here than sibling affection. But check out sister’s hand right before she gets her gift from Peter. And those looks. Quick, get the little kiddies out of the room. Someone has added even more creep factor by editing in two more close-up cuts. At least I HOPE this is not an actual version that ever aired, but rather one that somebody played around with: www.youtube.com/watch?v=khlbF2PTsr4&feature=relatedAnd if you don’t think Folger’s and their ad folks didn’t do it on purpose, I have a deal for you on some swamp land in New Jersey. They have edited the ad since it originally aired. They changed an audio track that originally said, “Finally, some real coffee.” Guys, dude is coming back from West Africa, where some of the best coffee in the world is grown, including some that is sourced into Folger’s. So they changed the audio track. But they did not change any of the visuals, the mood or that very creepy hand between the legs. If I go to my car dealer this time of year, I might get a free cup of Folger’s, but frankly, I have never understood the idea of buying a Lexus for someone as a Christmas gift. It seems to me they might want to pick out their own options, color and so on. And how many of us spend $40K on a Christmas gift? Still, they have pushed pretty hard in the Christmas season. This year, folks who give a Lexus also find clever ways to play that annoying theme song (which has gotten nearly as bad as It’s A Small World After All) instead of saying “I bought you a Lexus.”. There’s a music box; a customized version of Guitar Hero (pretty cool, I admit, but not commercially available… I checked) and an elevator that plays the theme Lexus song. Huh? I guess I am just not rich enough to “get it.” I can’t afford a Lexus for my wife (Although I did buy her a Chevy Aveo for our anniversary one year). But a music box that plays the Lexus song. That I can afford. And still have $39,950 left for my divorce attorney.Gotta go. Gayla Peavey’s Greatest Christmas Hit CD is now available packaged with a chocolate hippopotamus and I need to grab a couple before they sell out.

Moving starting January 2012

2011-12-15T07:58:00.000-08:00

Hey guys, just so you know, I am moving the Smoking With The Giss Blog to http://smokingwiththegiss.blogspot.com starting with my first post in January, which will probably be Tuesday, January 3.This will make it easier for us to get searched and since I am no longer associated with Northfield Park, it makes sense to lose the northfield title in the name.There will still be plenty of harness observations, but we will be discussing a number of other issues, too, as you have seen the past few weeks.

A Joyous Holiday Season (and, just maybe,Merry Christmas)

2011-12-13T09:17:00.000-08:00

It is a sad commentary on the world when people waste so much energy arguing over how we should be greeting each other this time of year. Thousands of people are posting "I am a Christian" as their status on Facebook, urging everyone to use the greeting Merry Christmas and not Happy Holidays. I admit, I even got drawn into this battle at one point. It was a mistake. But in this forum I WILL address it.

I am Jewish. And I do not get offended by someone wishing me Merry Christmas. But it is not a salutation I will use very often. To my church-league volleyball teammates, yes. To the minister dad of one of my ex-soccer players, absolutely. But generally, the Happy Holidays greeting, when it comes from me, means a lot more than Merry Christmas. It means Merry Christmas. But more importantly, it means best wishes for a healthy, happy and prosperous New Year, which is just as important.

On the retail level, Happy Holidays may not be as sincere, but it is certainly better than "have a good one." As I said, I don't get offended by being wished Merry Christmas, but some Jews, and Muslims, and Agnostics, and Atheists and Wiccans and others, are offended by it. So there is nothing wrong with playing it safe. Heaven forbid that group starts a boycott of your business. That is territory reserved for "pseudo-Christians."

If you are a Christian, a true Christian, I wish you a Merry Christmas. But if you are one of the alleged Christians threatening to boycott Lowe's because they (inadvertently) advertised on the cable show American Muslim, then I wish you a lump of coal. And if you are one of the (apparent) Christians who runs Lowes, I will be buying that coal at Home Depot. Sorry, cavers, I am joining the Muslim community on this one and boycotting you for your spineless decision.

But, having said all that, I hope all of you, whatever your religion of choice, stop to think about what the various holidays this time of year truly meaning. The miracle of faith over bullying celebrated at Chanukah (not the miracle that the oil lasted 8 days, which is secondary); the miracle of the birth of one of the most remarkable individuals, Jesus, in the history of man. Whatever your religion, his significance is undeniable. And for the Principals of Kwanza, which we would all be well served to honor - Unity, Self-Determination, Collective Work and Responsibility, Cooperative Economics, Purpose, Creativity and Faith

So instead of worrying about how we say it this holiday season, let's worry about how we honor this time of year.

Be well. -Giss-

Swamp redux- Thanks to Frank Cotolo, who in commenting on last week's blog, pointed out (as I knew, but left out) the fact that The Meadowlands is known as The Swamp, having been built on New Jersey marshlands. So, if Jeff Gural is reading, it seems obvious we need to add that venue to next year's American Racing Herps Alive Tour.

Getting Harness racing on Mainstream TV

2011-12-06T07:27:00.000-08:00

I wanted to write this a few months ago, but I have been swamped lately. Literally, swamped. Let's face it, we can all sit and lament the lack of coverage our sport gets on TV, but after hours of researching the cable networks, I think I have an answer. We need to race through swamps. Anything with "Swamp" in the title gets a show on cable.

It started a few years back with Swamp Loggers on Discovery, as we watched North Carolina loggers deal with horrible conditions, venomous snakes, alligators and equipment that will break down without warning to harvest hardwoods to build, well, whatever. Next, my personal favorite, Swamp People debuted. This one follows a group of alligator hunters in the Lousiiana bayous during the thirty day season dealing with horrible conditions, venomous snakes and equipment that will break down without warning to harvest alligators for hide and meat. (It's okay to slaughter gators for meat, but not horses, of course.

Swamp People has generated a cottage industry for The History Channel. You can go on-line to by $26 dollar t-shirts (buy four and maybe Troy Landry can get a teeth cleaning and x-rays) with cute catch-phrases like "Choot im, Choot 'im!" I wonder how many of these guys actualy have Interenet access. One of the gator hunters is an American Indian who is also a wrist-wrestling champ. He would certainly fit tight in the paddock on many nights at Northfield Park. And with their look, hair and dentition, Brothers Glenn and Mitchell Guist could find a job on any backstretch. Have a look at http://ts4.mm.bing.net/images/thumbnail.aspx?q=1353618960655&id=7b74363d8a846b51f27c962c4e2e1218.
Remind you of anyone?

Recently two other shows have joined the airways. Swamp Men is not a misogynist twist on Swamp People. After all Swamp People did add female gator hunter Liz (Don't call me Elizabeth) Chevalier in season two,. Instead, this one looks in on the crew at Billie Swamp Safari. This Indian, err, Native-American run tourist trap features a true swamp experience. We watch the crew, headed by Ed Wood (no, not that one), deal with tourist "chickees" (kind of primitve cabins) in horrible condition, venomous snakes, alligators and equipment that breaks down without warning.

Swamp Wars details the dedicated folks of the Miami-Dade Venom Squad and is the most disappointing of the genre, since there are hardly any cheesy re-enactments. These folks are government employees who get to deal with wild weather conditions, venomous snakes, alligators and top-end equipment as they extricate native and exotic reptiles, usually from nice suburban homes, and deal with their impact on the public. (Imagine Python Hunters with badges0.

So, here is what we do for Swamp Racing. Flood the track. The softer surface means fewer breakdowns and healthier horses who can race longer. Heck, we could probably double heat them since the miles will be going in :15. Interview the mud-covered drivers regularly and create their personalities- Aaron Merriman could spout Facebook-esque motivational lines in the winners circle and Ryan Stahl could just stand there and look stoic. Turn loose a few gators in the infield pond (or maybe we could get more "live action" with snapping turtles). Maybe Greg Grismore or George Brennan could even wrestle a gator.

Turn a concession stand into the Swamp Cafe, serving gator nuggets, crawfish etoufee (which is apparently the Cajun word for stew), and the like and have every episode feature interviews with fans, all of whom must speak like the late Justin Wilson. www.youtube.com/watch?v=eK4umRMJlrs

Now call the producers and let's get this baby on the air.

Off-topic- Thanks to all of you who wrote about the pending exotic animal legislation in Ohio. I have yet to hear from any of the politicians involved, but I will try to keep you all updated. See you next week.

Not harness related- my letter to Governor Kasich

2011-12-02T09:41:00.000-08:00

It's my blog, so I can.

December 2, 2011

Governor Kasich:

As you and the state legislature work on the proposed and sorely needed Ohio exotic animal legislation, HB 352, I hope you will look at a number of issues with the proposal as it is currently structured. I specifically ask you to look at the regulation as it refers to reptiles.

I have been a herpetology educator for thirty years, lecturing at colleges, libraries and community events. It is my primary income. I carry a $1,000,000 liability policy and have never had a claim. My program has been seen by tens of thousands of people, has won national awards and numerous local nature centers refer those with unwanted animals to me as a reptile adoption agency, which is currently not regulated by the state. I take my responsibility as a herpetoculturist seriously. But the proposed legislation would either force me out of business or force me out of the state.

I support a licensing process, similar to the one that currently exists for native reptiles; inspections (with advance notice); and insurance/bonding requirements. Some form of exemption should be allowed for legitimate educational presenters which do not other qualify as American Zoological Association membership or as members of any of the museum association which exist. In Cleveland alone, there are nearly a dozen animal educators who will be put out of business without this exemption. While this may affect fewer than fifty presenters statewide, it will affect thousands of schoolchildren who will be denied unique educational opportunities with these animals.

Another issue with the legislation is its overly broad definitions. For instance, in declaring constricting snakes banned, the Bill bans numerous safe colubrid snakes (ratsnakes and kingsnakes) {Section 1(E)(e) }although the media continues to report that it bans Boa Constrictors and Pythons( (0ver 95% of which are actually bred in captivity, many right here being bred safely in Ohio, aiding the economy). If we are we actually banning boa constrictors and pythons, which ones? The common boa (Boa c. constrictor) or the totally harmless 18” rubber boa (Charina bottae) and the two foot long sand boa (Eryx ssp)? There are over twenty species of boa constrictor and only two grow over six feet long, a length that might be considered potentially dangerous. And those two are far less likely to cause injury than most “domesticated” dog breeds. Looking at the pythons. Python regius, the ball python, is probably the second most popular snake in the pet trade. At a typical maximum size of four feet, it is not a dangerous. While my preference is that reptiles be removed from this legislation entirely, I am sure there is room for a common-senes compromise.

There are other problems with this legislation regarding the time frame for disposal of exotic animals (are you really asking me to kill animals that are still in my possession ion January 2014?) and the fact that several of its proposals contravene Federal Law, although that does not affect me directly at this time. But they must be looked at in a broad context in order to avoid possible court challenges and get a workable law in place as soon as possible.

While action must be taken to avoid another Zanesville-like tragedy, I urge common sense and a workable solution, instead of a knee-jerk reaction that will limit the educational use of these animals, hurting Ohio’s economy and preventing children and the public easy (and controlled access to these animals for educational use. I can only hope reason will prevail.

I have been licensed in over 25 jurisdictions over the years and would be happy to provide additional input as you make your decision.

Thank you.

Keith Gisser, Presenting Herpetologist
HERPS ALIVE! The Interactive Reptile and Amphibian Experience

I'm back!

2011-11-29T10:11:00.000-08:00

I know, it has been far too long since I posted, but we are going to try to go weekly with some thoughts and ideas from here on out.

First, I want to send everyone to http://www.harnesscharts.com/ when you get time. This is the Harness Eye website and if you click on the Columns from Harness Eye link at the left-hand side, you will be directed to most of my monthly columns, along with those from Bob Pandolfo and Editor Derick Giwner. Make sure to check those out. Last month, we talked about beards and next week's column talks about syndicate wagering, as my friends from thelightninglane.com ( a great message board, btw) know all to well.

Second (shameless plug time) I still have copies of Northfield Park- Images of Sport available for sale at $20, which includes a dedication from your humble scribe and shipping, along with a gift card. With the holidays coming up, give it some thought. E-mail me at klgisser@earthlink.net for more information.

I appreciate all the e-mails and Facebook messages I have been getting asking how I am doing and what is going on with Northfield. Answers, I am fine and I have no idea. I have been there a couple of times for the races and to research the Breeders Crown Media Guide (which the Hambletonian Society enlisted me to work on), but I have had little contact with anyone at the Route Eight Oval lately.

I have been busy -- with my HHYF duties (by the way check out Sweet Karen on Facebook if you get the chance -- http://www.facebook.com/pages/Sweet-Karen/221223011248815; with a crazy soccer season and with rebuilding my reptile business...we already have eight colleges booked for second semester, which is far more than I have been doing. (We also have some pretty cool young boa constrictors for sale. I am hoping the new exotic animal law in Ohio is a fair one and I have received preliminary assurances from several legislators that it will be. I am also working on another book, which has been pm hiatus for 15 years. The working title is There's An Alligator In The Bathtub So I Won't Need Maid Service TodayN,a humorous look at life on the road with my reptiles, along with husbandry tips on maintaining them properly as pets. In between, I am doing my monthly Harness Eye column and some other free-lance harness-related media work, so life is good and thanks for your concern.

I will be back next week and will generally try to post at least every Tuesday from here on out

Breeders Crown Finals

2011-10-29T10:16:00.000-07:00

I will be in Northfield's clubhouse playing Woodbine and the Breeders crown finals tonight. Several horses, I like. A couple I like a lot. We did well last week with Westwardho Hanover and we also ended up on Betterthancheddar and Rocklamation, although we missed tying up exotics with those when we should have making win wagers (No reason to get greedy with 5 and 6-1 horses).

Here are a few I like tonight

Race 1- Action Broadway- Connections like her chances and they are not ones to hype a horse. We may get 5-2 or 3-1.

Race 2- I'll take a pass with Check Me Out liable to be 3-5.

Race 3- I will probably box my street address. Wide open and no real feel for it.

Race 4- Chalky exacta box with Sweet Lou and A Rocknroll Dance. Can't hurt to use I Fought Dalaw, who will need to overcome the post but could add value from the ten hole. He is a real nice colt.

Race 5- Two-year-old trotters make breaks. A small 3-4 horse exacta box with some longshots..may leave the top two choices out and play the third through sixth choices on a hunch.

Race 6- Maureen Rocks is improving rapidly, but Anndrovette is as sharp as a tack right now. Will probably play 5/1/with 4 horses; 5/4 horses/1 in tris and a solid 5-1 exacta with a small 1-5 saver, but that depends on the will pays.

Race 7- San Pail should jog, but at 2-5 why bother. I will probably play him under the two Euros and also box them.

Race 8- Love Rocklamation here. She may actually be just as long (6 or 6-1) as she was last week. Newbie to the Burke barn can still improve. Win bet, maybe a place
saver.

Race 9-Manofmanymissions is logical. Broad Bahn looks tired to me. The horse capable of a big mile is Dejarmbro, but he is pretty inconsistent. May be a 5/1 exacta, but if MOMM is overbet, a cigar break.

Race 10- I am a huge Cedar Dove fan after seeing her in the filly futurity at The red Mile. But she came back the next week and whoops... she will be overbet and it could happen again. Jezzy may have room to go forward and with CD at 1-2, I could make a small value play here.

Race 11- I have been chasing Westwardho Hanover since Futurity Day and caught him pretty good last week. He will be a price again in a wide open affair. I will also play an exacta, probably something like 2/34569 and 34569/2. Up The Credit worries me, Roll With Joe I feel may not be very good tonight. Not sure why./

Race 12- On paper this is all 1-2, 2-1, which means it won't be. Foiled Again wins it and yes I will have some 1-2 boxes. But I am using Bettor Sweet and Aracache Hanover with Foiled, in some form. I also like Dial Or Nodial, although he wasn't particularly sharp last week.

Good luck and stop by if you are at Northfield.

Race 9-

Breeders Crown

2011-10-22T11:49:00.000-07:00

I am excited to be part of the Breeders Crown media team this year. Of course, I would be more excited if I had a current passport, which means I would be at Woodbine right now and again next week, but I will have to be content with working from home and Northfield's clubhouse tonight (10/22)as I look at the three races I have been assigned -- Open pace, Mare Pace, Three-year-old colt and gelding pace -- for the media guide. Stop by and say hello if you are there.
Nights like his are tough to wager. For instance you have ten mares racing for eight spots in the final, so drivers may not want to gut their charges A)Because a long overland trip may mean not qualifying and B) It may take too much out of their horse.

But I will makes some picks anyhow. First up is a prep race for the Open Pacers. It would not surprise me to see a non-Crown starter win this, although I am sure it will be a great race. for Foiled Again and We Will See, who will likely battle for divisional honors next week, this is a needed tightener and for FA a chance for he and regular pilot Yannick Gingras ot get a trip over the oval. A good race to watch, but I migh ttake a flyer on a 2nd tier Crown starter like Alexie Mattossie.

I love Dreamfair Eternal in the mares elim even though she was beaten last start and has been off a few weeks. She has always been good fresh and after the bad luck of the Milton and a lot of tough trips, an extra week or two off won't hurt her. Maureen Rocks is an interesting one. Tony O'Sullivan really likes her and since she is Ohio connected, well...
The three-year-olds are wide-open. The top 5 in each elim (races 10 and 11) go on, but these will be hard races to bet. One horse worth a few bucks is Westwardho Hanover. I had him in his frist start for the Burkes at Lexington and midway down the lane, he looked like a winner at 14--1. I still hit a nice tri when he leveled to third. This horse may continue to go forward and seems to get along well with Palone on the big track. This is a value animal. I need 7 or 8-1 to play him, because with the likes of speedy but off-form Custard The Dragon, Ontario star Mystician, Alsace Hanopver and Roll With Joe, he could improve a few lengths and still not hit the ticket.
The other elim is just as tough with Betterthancheddar, Up The Credit and Jug champ Big Bad John. My only prediciton is that in one of these elims, one of the expected "big boys" won't advance. Now, if I only knew which one...

Good luck. More on the BC finals during the week.

Impressed with The Red Mile

2011-10-04T12:10:00.000-07:00

Saw my first Kentucky Futurity in about 12 or 15 years Sunday ans the Who's Who of folks who stopped by at the HHYF table was amazing. Far too many that I have not seen in far too long....including Jay Wolf, PR Guru for the Jug, Steve May from HTA and Jessica Schroeder from the USTA, who I am working on a couple projects with. And of course OHHA Honcho Jerry Knappenberger, who I saw a few weeks ago.

Cedar Dove impressed me int he Filly Futurity. I cannot believe she went off at 9-5 in the final or that the repeat exacta paid nearly $30.

I thought Dejarmbro was huge in the first Futurity heat and was a bit surprised that he got beat in the second. Especially considering how bad-gaited Manofmanymissions was, making a break in the opener and then holding together until just past the wire to upset in heat two. MOMM may not be sound or pretty gaited, but he is as game as they come. In the raceoff he was stone cold beaten by Dejarmbro halfway down the lane. But he dug in and did a great job to win.

Lots of energy at The Red Mile.. it really looks like they are trying to appeal to the customers (although they are still a bit more interested in the folks who will fork over sic-figures for the babies at the sales)with a table set up to promo their RedMile bets on-line wagering site (even if they do badmouth TwinSpires while doing) and with a great variety of bourbon available. Of course I was working and could not partake, but did send Lil Giss out to stock up the bourbon supply for back home.

While the drive in and out was a nightmare due to construction, the day was a blast and we raised a lot of money for HHYF through Drive For Youth, where owners, trainers and drivers pledged a percentage of their earnings or a flat rate.
And it looks like we are going to Pinehurst in April, which will be a blast.

It's Jug Day (and a huge disappointment on another subject)

2011-09-22T07:07:00.000-07:00

First, The Jug. t kills me to miss yet another one, but my girls play Hawken, the #5 team in the state this afternoon and I need to be there. The second elim is much tougher than the first, but with four getting through to the second heat, at least post is not the issue it has been in the past. You have to like Roll With Joe and Betterthancheddar to advance from that one, while I think Custard The Dragon may come up big in the first split (although you have to root for Ron Potter, the hometown trainer with Big Bad John. I like Foreclosure N in that one just a bit, as well. Not sure if any other New Zealand-breds have raced in the Jug.

And I look for a race-off. The first heat winner will join Cheddar and Joe (whoever loses the elim will turn the tables in the "don't call it a final" second heat. I look for Betterthancheddar who got good at the right time to take the crown.

Interesting comments from Roll With Joe's connections. He will be retired at the end of this year and sent to stud. from Harness racing Update- “W e have a worry that if he races at four and something
else happens to that ankle he’d have no stud career,”
Grossman said. “Anything could happen. To keep rolling
the dice and playing Russian Roulette, we just can’t.”
W ithout going into specifics. Grossman said he thought
the Gural ban would not effect the first crop by Roll With
Joe.
“(The ban) doesn’t affect our plans at all,” he said. “We
are very sure that he will be in the stud barn next year and
his first crop will be in the Meadowlands Pace. I’d rather
not get into the political rigamarole. I just think it will work
out that way.”

On another topic- The Plain Dealer has a front page article on the "fast-tracking" of a contract for slots at the racetrack. The Northeast Ohio racing establishment embarrasses itself in two ways in this article, first with Thistledown's GM saying he is "champing at the bit." The proper phrase is "chomping at the bit." Where is his media consultant. And Northfield gets a "An official at the Northfield harness track was unavailable for comment."

A shame that the the roles have switched. Just a couple years ago it was Northfeld that was ALWAYS out front on the media situations. When Barbaro was euthanized, it was Thistledown's spokesman who was unavailable and Northfield's spokesman who went ont he air to discuss it, even though it was a different breed. And now, with a huge issue facing both tracks futures, Northfield can't provide anyone to comment. It may well be part of the current business strategy- say nothing and don't make waves, but it is a huge disappointment to me, based on what I know of that trac;s management team.

The full article here: http://blog.cleveland.com/metro/2011/09/thistledown_would_need_time_to.html

Ohio Super Night at Scioto- Saturday 9/10

2011-09-09T10:33:00.000-07:00

First post at 6:30 PM

Race 1: 2 Jessica Rayne, 5 Wardon's Daughter, 7 Tts Taterchip
JR has been best all year, TT improving, but a bad post.

Race 2: 1 Gun Show, 2 Four Aces Osborne, 4 Noble Trick
Gun Show will be 1-5 and 4 Aces may get a perfect trip. Flip the exacta for slight value

Race 3: 3 Jailbird Jesse, 2 Carolina Carl, 3 Rose Run Nash
No surprise that i think Dan Noble and Virgil will have a huge night, is it?

Race 4: 10 Bell Valley Indian, 6 Noble Jet, 5 Yoo Hoo Bunny
Upset special, I have always liked this horse and he will get cover at some point

Race 5: 6 I Don't Blame Her, 3 Caribean Cruise, 4 Moira's Bliss
Don't Blame Her was huge in the Scarlety and Gray with a track recdord.

Race 6: 1 Gordie How, 2 Camcoder, 3 Doc's Bonanza
Gordie races well from the rail and should handle these

Race 7: 1 Photo Memory, 7 Ml Cupcake, 5 Fire in The Cell
May be the most wide-open of the eight finals

Race 8: 3 Osborne's Sweeper, 5 Crossthreaded, 4 Eradikate
Sweeper mops here, the four adds value

Race 9: 6 Mypanmar, 9 Trick Man, 1 Vlue Creek Bad Boy
Post may be too much for Trick Man. Mypanmar is best with his best

Race 10: 1 Future Night Train, 2 Shining Ember, 3 J J Hall
Have always been a fan of the Night Train

Race 11: 7 Hare Craft, 2 I D K, 5 Dancin Yankee
Mohawk invader pulls the upset, IDK is improving, Dancin Yankee is the best on paper

Race 12: 1 Friskie Beauty, 7 Special Lady D, 6 Feelin Peachy
Box the tri, any of these three can win, but Special Lady D won't provide any value

Race 13: 16 Jellyfish Joy, 1 Wildfire Princess, 5 Tu Tu Twain
The Jellyfish is back to her old self, but don't miss the Twain

Race 14: 2 Stubblesleisureguy, 7 Herestheconnection, 8 Deetox
A guess, I hope to be on the Interstate by the time this one goes off

Good Luck!

This and That

2011-09-06T07:37:00.000-07:00

I hope you had a great holiday. Now that I have some free time, I spent the weekend working with my smoker (NOT CIGARS) and created some pretty good smoked cheeses. Still work to do, but a lot of fun.

I want to let everyone know that I will be handicapping the Scioto Downs Ohio Super Night card on the blog, probably Friday AM. As I mentioned, I will be doing winners circle interviews Saturday at Ohio's Showplace of Racing and hope you will stop by and say hello.

I found an kind of funny item in the paper over the weekend. Apparently the popularity of insect snacks such as crickets and grubs as England's Health Ministry worried, since they do not have specific health or handling standards. While there are numerous jokes I could make, for some reason this kept coming to mind:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dy6uLfermPU

Northfield's Scarlet and Gray races were very exciting with divisional track records set, despite the reduced purses. It continues to amaze me that these horses go so hard and so fast for so little money at Northfield. I hope slots get there soon so purses can increase. Northfield's horsemen work ridiculously hard and deserve better.

And thanks to the dozens of you who sent e-mails wishing me luck going forward. Rest assured, for now at least, we are fine and anticipate that we will be very busy going forward. But, if any of you out there are looking for a part-time media consultant, web content updater or social media dude, let me know.

And here is a plug for my favorite Facebook page, http://www.facebook.com/pages/Sweet-Karen/221223011248815. I guess it's also a work sample ;-)

More later.

Was It Over When The Germans Bombed Pearl Harbor?

2011-08-27T07:50:00.000-07:00

A special edition for you animal house fans. (To-ga, To-ga). Column aside- If Jason Settlemoir was at that party, would they have chanted Ti-O-ga, Ti-O-ga? Some of you are probably tuning in to find my Wednesday, September 1 picks. They will not be posted. Unfortunately, Northfield Park and I have parted ways from the contract position I was filling for them. Ayers Ratliff will be doing daily picks for the program and will be doing the media releases I had been doing (although they will not be called Keeping Pace). I am not sure if he will be posting on-line. A final Keeping Pace issued Monday August 29 ends 19 years of that franchise... first as an award-winning radio show, then as a column in the late, lamented Penn-Ohio Racing Report, then as Northfield's (usually) weekly release. But KP is really going into hibernation, not ending. Could a podcast be in the works? It is if I can find a sponsor.

Northfield provided me with a media platform for an additional six months past my termination which I greatly appreciate. It helped keep me in the public eye, which helped me gain my contract to work with HHYF and has kept me in touch with other industry sources, and it also provided some base-level income at a time of uncertainty. While I wish the outcome of the last several months was different, I do appreciate it and have told Tom Aldrich just that. He has told me that I am in line to do some back-up announcing and that we will "talk when slots are finalized."

Short term, I will probably update this blog a couple times a week, either with hot picks that I see (Northfield or elsewhere) or to comment on the state of the industry.

And, on Saturday, September 10, I will be at Scioto Downs for Ohio Super Night, doing winners circle interviews. (No tux.. I have been told that would make my buddy Dean Hoffman look bad...by Dean himself). So stop by at ScD in two weeks and we'll have a smoke and talk racing.

I have enjoyed doing these picks daily for the last few years. Now, perhaps, I can really get cracking on the two books I have started but progressed slowly on, and of course my HHYF duties continue to expand as I learn more about that fantastic organization. Oh and there is high school soccer season, where I have returned to the field as a referee and continue to coach the highly-rated Orange Lady Lions. So it's not like I will be walking the streets looking for aluminum cans. Unless their filled with Diet Dr Pepper.

Drop me an e-mail if you want, at klgisser@earthlink.net. I won't even quote Seneca (or the band semisonic) in this post. To all who read this regularly, keep checking in now and then. Be well and make sure you Enjoy Every Sandwich!

-Giss-

Monday musings

2011-08-26T10:41:00.000-07:00

An interesting Monday card with some very playable, albeit low-level races.
Monday features a $10,000 Guaranteed Pick 4 Pool with a 14% Takeout.

My play is: 256/19/25/1239=$48

Analysis: Race 8- I really like 2)Contech, but 5) R Cowboy has tons of back class and can strike at any time. 6) Sturgeon gets big class relief

Race 9: Very tempted to single Rebas Big Boy, but 1)Polo Joe has tons of class and will get a very good trip in this one.

Race 10: 2)Ridge Park is a late developer, but very good, while 5)Taxed is a quality youngster. Two-horse race.

Race 11: 2 Pure Fantasy is my top choice in an evenly matched group. I could easily back this up with a ticket where I single rebas Big Boy and go real deep in this leg when I actually go to the window. Good Luck!

Here are the rest of the picks:

Race 1: 3 Sams Yankee- Has leveled in his last two against better, but still fits well; 5 Cobblestone- They opened up the class for her; 1 Uplaythegametowin- Could be anything for her 85-year-old owner/trainer/driver.

Race 2: 4 Man I’m Good- Move to Noble returns him to his bottom of the form form; 5 Three To get Ready- Might just go with the class relief; 8 Camdestin- Closed a bit against better from outside, value-adder may be worth a flyer.

Race 3: 3 Magnaflo- Risky, but I will take a chance off a qualifier that showed big improvement; 1 Mr Bing- Drops out of fair stakes & gets Noble and the rail; 6 Sam’s Profile- Straight non-winner of one in against maiden claimers.

Race 4: 1 Key Western- Towers over most of this field on memories alone; 3 One Eyed Willie- Moves up off an improving form cycle; 4 Heez Ruthless N- Another back-classer, though his form is suspect right now; 6 Dragoninthekash- Flat effort last time after two very good ones has me concerned.

Race 5: 9 Jailhouse Dale- Has been better with the hopples & may break through tonight; 3 Abc Flower- Gets fresh hands & may improve; 4 Muckmuck Woodchuck- Josh chose, though Q was not as good as #7, who listed him too.

Race 6: 3 Diehl’s Deal- Reunited with Charlino. ‘Nuff said; 6 Thomas Be Quick- Noble chose over #7, which is a surprise; 7 Trytopass Sam- Moves outside, let’s see if Aaron wakes him up.

Race 7: 9 Ts’s Sharpshooter- Big improvement last time, may post a minor upset; 5 Search The Falcon- Gets his worst post draw in two months; 1 Israeli Hall- May get a small piece skimming the pylons; 3 Laag The Mile- Fits with his best, but is somewhat inconsistent.

Race 8: 2 Contech- NW1L8 was fried by last effort, another chance; 6 Sturgeon- Class relief below the level of the last win could mean caviar tonight; 5 R Cowboy- Back class, NW1L8 and Aaron, but he needs to do more work.

Race 9: 9 Rebas Big Boy- Two straight huge efforts since Nobel took over, a third tonight; 1 Polo Joe- Classy old guy will make good use of the rail; 2 He’s All Art- Doesn’t always fire, but when he does he is very good.

Race 10: 2 Ridge Park- It’s taken awhile, but he is finally racing to his pedigree; 5 Taxed- Was solid moving up to this level and should be my choice’s major threat; 9 Tkr’s Metro Specs- Good maiden win and now The Swartz is with him; 6 Sabastin Seacrest- Not a huge fan, but must use him on the ticket with Aaron driving.

Race 11: 2 Pure Fantasy- Has been knockin at the door and may beat these; 1 Liltycantbedenied- Upward form cycle makes him a solid contender; 9 Nikos- Tends to hang around and may get a good trip behind “Lilty” for value.

Race 12: 2 Tic Tic Tic Boom- Has a big move, but needs to sustain it or time it better; 3 Miss Port Foal Leo- I like the driver change to Merriman; 6 Bella Bionda- Has leveled but may wake up with Charlino driving.

Race 13: 6 Lucifer Bluegrass- Massive class relief gets him the call, but he’s not invincible; 5 Townline Powerful- Is better than he has shown of late; 4 Moon River Dell- Has been faster with Lasix and now gets Noble, huge plus;2 Cunning Design- Had been very consistent before the break last start, gets another chance.

Northfield Saturday

2011-08-25T10:59:00.000-07:00

Here is a guarantee. In race one, a $17,900 Ohio Sires Stake, the winner WILL be a son of Feelin Friskie. Good Luck.

Race 1: 5 Feelin Perfect- For some reason this whole race has me Feelin Friskie; 1 Four Aces Osborne- Steps up, but is very sharp right now; 3 American Friskie- Benefits from the short field.

Race 2: 1 Its Jesse Time- I like the change to Sugg, but he needs to mind his manners; 6 Carolina Carl- Had been very good prior to the one break; 5 Jailbird Jesse- Wins at Lake County if he stays flat, a major player.

Race 3: 3 Bingo Queen- Two-year-old mis-stepped last time, but has license to improve; 1 Norths Chester- Always contends and should get the trip he needs; 4 Tory- Very consistent and does show a good line w/these four back.

Race 4: 3 Co Line Hard Drive- NW1L8 has missed by less than a length in three of last four; 2 Bullys Joni- No chance from the snowman last time, but she fits from inside; 4 Hillcrest Crystal- Tired after battling for the early lead, another chance; 7 Back Home Again- Not wild about her from out here, but she does get class relief.

Race 5: 6 Gun Show- Ready. Aim. Winner; 5 Noble Trick- I like this one to add value with Charlino; 1 Mineral Man- I love this one’s name and his recent form, but this is a big move up.

Race 6: 5 Rose Run Nash- The Nash rambler makes it four in a row in O-hi-o; 6 Rock N Jessie- Contends with a flat mile; 2 Cody Coy- Very consistent and may go forward with Charlino driving.

Race 7: 4 Sky Strikes- Should be the best value in a race where any of the four I list can win; 5 Southview Don- Noble chose off, but that may be loyalty, should be good w/Paver; 1 Vince The Man- Solid player from the rail despite poor current form; 6 Mm’s Shocking Guy- Usually does some work, but I don’t quite buy the ML on him.

Race 8: 7 Mypanmar- Bad draw, but 1:51.4 tells you all you need to know; 8 Moira’s Bliss- Mare is as game as they come, but she faces a monster; 1 Imperious- Could add value from the rail.

Race 9: 9 Master Wheels- Appears worthy of a slight call in average group; 3 Hogue’s Rockie- Got caught grinding in a monster mile, actually a decent effort; 8 Deep Chip- Dark horse figures but might be in deep chip from post eight.

Race 10: 2 Doc’s Poker King- Two straight starts from the snowman, but still closed credibly; 4 Amos Moses- Noble’s choice over #1 is inconsistent; 5 Cruisin Waverly- Has improved with Blevins driving; 1 Intrepid Orion- Needed the Painesville start and should never have been 1-2 off a sick scratch.

Race 11: 4 Big Bad Tj- Back racing at his best level and may surprise; 1 Doctor Gates- Speedster should love the rail draw; 2 Jenna’s Dream- These breaks leaving the switch worry me, but he contends if he paces.

Race 12: 7 Fox Valley Flyby- Back racing at his best level and may overcome the outside; 4 Stand Tall Mcgraw- Moves up off a game win; 9 Currently Flying- Starting to go forward for his new connections.

Race 13: 8 Crown Heights- Speedster may not overcome the eight-hole, but is worth a chance as an ETE; 7 Shackleton Hanover- The other ETE may be less affected by the draw; 9 Westedge Matt- Always gives effort and must be considered he could trip out; 4 Gallows Pole- Moves up off a couple decent efforts.

Friday fillies and mares and freshman Sires Stakes

2011-08-24T10:52:00.000-07:00

Good luck on this card. Supposed to be a beautiful evening. I may need to make an appearance.

Race 1: Airie Feelin- Just needs a breather and a strong finish here; 5 Haley Louise- Just a hunch she improves with Sugg; 4 Mac Come Back- Steps up big time here, but gets Charlino, may add value in a short field.

Race 2: 4 Special Lady D- The missed start 8/12 is a concern, but on paper she is tons the best; 1 Feelin Peachy- Raced well for Aaron last time & gets the rail; 5 Friskie Beauty- On an upward form cycle, important tis time of year.

Race 3: 3 Miss Two Punch- Raced very well last time, her first with “The Swartz,” 2 Gadjet- Back class and gets Aaron, but Russ chose off; 5 Jimi’s Little Wing- Moves up and may draw well enough to be a factor.

Race 4: 5 Holdzmfromfloppin- Aaron jumps off his listed pair to this one, a huge angle; 1 Get Ready To Rhumba- Getting out of $400ps helps her, so does the rail; 4 Broadway Petera- Gets class relief and must be concerned; 2 Reprise Hanover- Drops down and may be a factor.

Race 5: 3 Campside Angel- Always does work, just not always at the right time; 7 Action Jenna- Not the best of the post draw, but can contend; 1 Hula Lu- Doesn’t do tons of work, but from the rail, she won’t need to.

Race 6: 9 Cosmetician- Just a hunch with the driver change to Stahl; 4 Soaring Cloud- Inconsistent, but seems to fit with these; 2 Allamerican Dora- Gets Aaron and must be considered.

Race 7: 3 Coupon Lady- Continues to race well and Wyatt chose her over 2/6/7; 2 Tt’s Little Lass- Consistent and gets class relief, but Irvine chose off; 1 Longlegacy- Should be on or near the front from the rail.

Race 8: 3 Sarastar- Looks for her fourth in a row and should get it; 1 Jack’s Magic Jewel- Gets major class relief, but will be overbet here; 5 What’s Your Fantasy- Gets Aaron and may sustain her effort for a change.

Race 9: 2 Wardon’s Daughter- Fresh & still improving, no idea how good she is; 6 Vada Victory- Interesting line at Rock Springs makes you wonder why? 1 Rose Run Natassia- Always hangs around & needs to show a bit more.

Race 10: 4 Royal Cam Osborne- Drops below the level of her last win, a lukewarm pick for me; 1 Memphis Glow- Finally gets a competitive post draw; 9 Tower’s Big Sadie- May save ground and be on this ticket; 6 Zim And Torre- Was last week a wake-up call?

Race 11: 7 Saratoga’s Best- Post hurts but Kurt still chose her over my second pick; 2 Jessies Band- Gets Aaron after Sugg took off, solid from inside; 6 Storms Never Last- Gets a barn change and has leveled lately, but still fits.

Race 12: 1 You Never Let Go- Class dropper has had no chance in her local attempts; 5 Lady Of The Dragon- Competed last time with Aaron, maybe again; 9 Ilooklikemygranny- Love the driver change, hate the post draw.

Race 13: 9 Boo Hoo- Has done everything but win. Turn the Page; 1 Alhambra Bokay- Stopped badly in MN, but gets fresh hands and likes this track; 6 Emma Rose Ben- Would love to see some ridiculous fractions; 7 Mach N Cookies- John G calls on Charlino, that makes it a possibility.

Back in town- Here's your Wednesday

2011-08-23T09:56:00.000-07:00

Years ago, when I did standup, I did a lot of amusement park material. One joke went something like this- I love amusement parks, but I don't like to be spun around or turned upside down. If you are gonna put me on a ride like that, I am gonna have three or four beers and eat a couple of those really greasy sausage sandwiches first. 'Cause if I'm not gonna have a good time on that ride, neither is anybody else.
So, at Kings Island with the soccer team Saturday, I see they have a Skyline Chili Stand right next to The Scrambler. What's the protocol there?

Pick 4 Guarantee of $10K on races 8-11, with just 14% takeout. No time for analysis, but my play is 123/1569/67/13=$48

Here is the whole card. Good luck!

Race 1: 2 Super Charmer- Gets a catch driver and a pretty hot one at that; 7 Jh Action- Everybody wants a piece of the action, sweet; 1 Little Lee- Has been better with Lasix and now he gets the rail.

Race 2: 5 Mr Sam- NW1L8 & Swartz picked over #1; 2 Lindy Five Hundred- Good qualifier & tons of back class, but he must have a hole somewhere, no value; 4 Red Radar Gun- Just go for the NW1L8 trifecta.

Race 3: 4 Upfront Jesse- Gets class relief below the level of his last win 2 back; 3 Cummingsandgoings- Was super sharp here before departing for WV; 8 Irwin- Really like this horse, really hate his post.

Race 4: 2 Stormy Nabor- Line from post eight in last is better than it looks, I think; 3 Wolf Creek Dasher- Good effort in her last start; 4 Thessaly- Fried by the trip last time, another chance; 1 Two Step Kash- Form is not impressive, but the rail may help her.

Race 5: 7 Lost Photo- Shocked these last time, gets McKirgan again and draws better; 2 Athlete In Action- Qualified well and gets huge class dip; 1 Pray To Me- A bit inconsistent, but I like her from the rail.

Race 6: 1 Champagne Bliss- 3rd back & the rail make him a contender; 3 Lenny Bromac N- They opened up the class for him; 2 Crown Heights- Fair lines are nice, but the Raceway win is the reason I’ll use him.

Race 7: 9 Action Full Hall- Tough trip last time, I’m giving him a solid chance with these; 2 Tkr’s Metro Specs- Was also facing better at Mea5/8; 4 Cause To Smile- Ever driven at Jefferson? Ignore the break; 7 Desired Entry- Third straight seven-hole, but just keeps rolling along.

Race 8: 3 Auto Pilot- Way overdue and current form says he’s is ready; 2 Spidermonkey- Best draw in ages, dismiss at your own risk; 1 Liftoff Bayama- Has drawn even worse than the monkey and gets the rail.

Race 9: 9 Australian Stock- Took pressure last time, may be dragged along here; 1 S F Spiderman- Another chance after a flat effort from outside; 5 Legacy Chip- The qualifier was an eye opener, will he trot?

Race 10: 7 Epes- Professional racehorse has faced better and can overcome the bad post; 6 Museum Piece- Always does work, not always at the right time; 3 Zakman- Showed a bit last time and draws better; 5 Heez Ruthless N- Always hangs around, but don’t see him much higher on this ticket.

Race 11: 3 Lucca’s Revenge- Raced well off the claim & will be on the point; 1 One Day Wonder- Always competes and should get a dream trip; 7 Altesse- In exceptional form if he can overcome the bad draw.

Race 12: 5 Robin Dontget- Just seems faster than these on paper; 4 Sparkle Tina- Best of the maidens, imo, and gets Stahl; 9 Roman Knows Best- Another NW$150, he should get covered up here.

Race 13: 1 Christmas Photo K- Rail gets him home for Swartz and Choppy; 5 Shackleton Hanover- Showed signs of waking up for Beau in last; 3 Gina Marie P- Has been highly disappointing lately; 2 Mr Kite- Major player from the inside.

Saturday Sires Stakes

2011-08-18T11:04:00.000-07:00

Hare Craft is featured in the opener. One of the fastest Ohio-breds ever, can he rebound from his break in the Confederation Cup? I am not sure. Remember - no Monday picks, Wednesday hopefully on Tuesday. Good luck.

Race 1: 4 Hare Craft- Hard not to pick a sub-50 Ohio-bred, but the Confed Cup break is a red flag; 3 Magical New Day- Just a hunch he’ll be better now with Lasix; 2 Lee A Bryant- Some huge county fair miles, will they translate?

Race 2: 3 Power Stroke Chip- Raced well for Noble when carrying a tag, a maybe pick; 4 North’s Chester- Won’t get as good a trip here as he has been; 5 I Don’t Know- Always does work and this is a positive driver change.

Race 3: 3 I D K- I don’t know how good he is, but he’s well connected and can upset, lol; 4 Dancin Yankee- Comes off a huge mile, omg, and is the logical favorite; 1 Finn Man- Rail helps him, not a threat to win, imo.

Race 4: 9 Bella Bionda- Gets class relief and Noble, a solid combo angle; 1 Co Line Hard Drive- Shows some closes and is a NW1L8; 4 Swift Samantha- First time Stahl and usually shows some work; 5 Towners Great Lady- Another NW1L8 who has back class and seems to be improving.

Race 5: 6 Dragon Smoke- Gets class relief off a win; 3 Gold Fever- Beat similar last time and now gets a better post and third back angle; 2 Sunburned Vern- Very professional and Charlino may pick him up.

Race 6: 2 Zeller’s Island- Has been improving and now gets Aaron, solid choice; 4 Gallows Pole- Raced well in last and gets Stahl again; 7 Saint henry- Class dropper gets Noble and may overcome the post draw.

Race 7: 2 Category Six- Draws better in what could be a two-horse race; 3 Great Balldini- Was just as impressive in his last; 1 Aliquippa- Third back and will be on the chooch from the rail; 9 Jenna’s Dream- Gets a trip by following a Pittsburgh suburb.

Race 8: 1 Sharp Action- In perfect position to get whatever trip Ryan wants for him; 6 Too Good To Pass- Always does work & Noble has previous success with him; 2 Hogue’s Rockie- Moves up, but moves to Ehrhardt barn.

Race 9: 4 Sky Strikes- Racing well, but does not show a win at this level; 3 Currently Flying- Always hangs around and merits serious consideration; 5 Blue Time Overdue- Give him a look at this level.

Race 10: 4 J J Hall- Mogan and Chip get a slight call in a very well-matched group; 3 Sack Full Of Gold- Showed he could contend with these two back, Charlino a plus; 5 Rose Run Mac- Razor Sharp after a slow start this year; 2 One Starry Night- May be a stretch, but should be brave off his current form.

Race 11: 1 Moreland Flash- I don’t think this group will go sub-52, a winner from the rail; 3 Fueled N Waiting- Racing style sets up well for this group; 9 Imperious- Should trip out behind The Flash.

Race 12: 3 Rapid City- I have always liked this horse, maybe Noble gets me out; 6 Dm Fatboy Slim- Moves up, but is in a positive form cycle; 1 Blue My Mind- Much better when he draws inside and he gets the rail.

Race 13: 5 Brass Cap- Shows good lines and faces slightly lesser; 3 Lrs Mamas Boy- Just missed in his last two. Will third time be the charm? 4 Frenchies Pride- Aaron may pick this one up after a flat effort in last; 1 Ray’s Rayzer- Form is not sharp (sorry) but must consider on the ticket from the rail.

It's Friday I'm in Love

2011-08-17T09:51:00.000-07:00

Quoting The Cure for a reason. The following is second hand and has not been verified, but it sounds almost to good to be true. The Susan Komen Foundation, which "borrowed" it's "for the cure," slogan from a Canadian group and then trademarked it in the US, is sending cease and desist letters to a number of smaller cancer benefits that use "for the cure," in their name (Kicks for the Cure, Shoot for the Cure, etc). While I will not address Komen's use of its funds here (do a Google search- I want to stick to discussing their bullying), I am appalled by their behavior and they will never get another dime from me. This is all true. The rumor is that the Cure's lead singer, Robert Smith, a bit of a rebel himself, caught wind of the bullying and threats, and has instructed his management to seek a cease and desist order against Komen for using the band's name, The Cure, in its fundraising efforts. All I can say is show me show me how you do that trick, the one that makes me scream, she said.

Here are the picks for Friday. Good Sires Stakes on the card, but I will be in Cincinnati. Good Luck!

Race 1: 4 Crossthreaded- Has consistently been just a bit better than Ocean Pearl; 6 Ocean Pearl- Could easily turn the tables, these two are both nice fillies; 2 Special Dark- Shows outstanding raceway lines off the form.

Race 2: 3 Beach Bunny- Gets Noble and may improve in this one; 9 Karrydale Charm- Has back class and recent work, but must sustain it here; 4 All Over Now- Usually gets a check, needs to do a bit more to be on the ticket.

Race 3: 2 Osborne’S Sweeper- Should mop-up tonight; 4 Caris True- Racing very well on 5/8 and probably trains on a half; 1 Sparkling Yankee- Corey Callahan makes a rare Ohio appearabce.

Race 4: 3 Storms Never Last- Simple. Go to the front and improve your position from there; 9 Saratoga’s Best- Solid performer at this level, but I would prefer her nose on the gate; 1 Princessoftheball- The good draw is a key here; 2 Icu Roller- Consistent and gets a change of scenery.

Race 5: 3 Sydney Hanover- Closed well in a needed start off a two-month freshening; 5 Hillcrest Crystal- Class dropper must be considered with Noble; 4 Dreamfair Eternal- Another class dropper, she must finish her mile better.

Race 6: 3 Drop Of Nutmeg- One last chance; 5 Imagine Freedom- Dominated similar last time; 7 M A Maria- One of 7 NW1L8 here, she gets Noble and may wake up.

Race 7: 9 Coupon Lady- So she got beat last time. It’s not like she raced badly; 5 Sarastar- She ended the choice’s streak and is racing well; 3 Lima Adore- Has won two of three and could Kash in here; 7 Upfront Brads Girl- Moves up in good form and could be anything, despite a relatively slow mark.

Race 8: 1 Rose Run Marci- Noble chose her over the entry-mate & she has lots of 1s on her card; 3 Charleigh’s Angel- Appears to be the reason Callahan made the trip; 2 Dontevenknowmyname- Speed kills and she has it.

Race 9: 2 Jimi’s Little Wing- Has historically good success with Noble driving; 5 Radiant Star- Racing well and Edwards’ barn is heating up; 9 Darting Larkin- Improving, but may be a victim of the trip.\

Race 10: 5 Admirals Diamond- No recent wins, but her lines shine brightest in this one; 3 Tt’s Little Last- Has certainly faced better on South High Street; 9 Gadjet- Classy mare is regaining her form for Wall-of-Fame owner; 4 Get Ready To Rumba- Callahan angle, even though Stahl chose to the snowman.

Race 11: 9 Emma Rose Ben- Just a hunch she will be a better value than the 5; 5 Longlegacy- Figures, yes, but 7-5 ML makes her unplayable; 2 Clarksville Jazz- Flew late last time. Take the last train to Clarksville.

Race 12: 2 I Am Samsational- She’s the only NW1L8 here, huge angle; 5 Zim And Torre- Noble chose the 10-1 over the 7-2 #3; 1 Stox Up Bluegrass- May improved with the rail.

Race 13: 4 Cosmetician- If Callahan has a big night, so will I; 6 Soaring Cloud- Racing very well right now and must be considered; 2 Magical Delight- Wyatt chose this one over the 3, so I will put them in the same order; 3 Moira’s Intended- Wyatt chose off after a win, which is telling. She is moving up, however.

Two-a-days have addled my brain

2011-08-16T16:15:00.000-07:00

It's bad enough I am spending 4 hours a day (or more), six days a week with 30 adolescent girls, trying to convince them they cankick a soccer ball in the right direction. But it's even worse that I am spending so much time on administrative stuff (physicals, permissions slips, fundraisers) that I am not doing as a good a job handicapping as I would like. Heck, I forgot to vote in the Top 10 Poll this week. But just a couple more days, then a trip to Cinci and Chilicothe and things will be back to normal.
Friday and Saturday picks should be up at the normal times. Probably no Monday picks. Wednesday will be posted Tuesday late AM. Thanks for understanding.

There is $10k Pick 4 Wednesday, with a 14% takeout. I am bound to come closer to hitting this than I came to Monday's. It tool some horrific handicapping to miss a $49.20 ticket, but I did just that missing not one, but twolegs.

The play for Wednesday: 3567/15/129/15=$48.

NO time for analysis. Sorry.

Here are the rest of the picks for Wednesday:

Race 1: 3 Jh Action- Hoping she gets an easy pace and pulls an upset; 9 Vibrato- Usually does some work, will he be close enough early? 4 Silent Star- Improving and gets a better post here.

Race 2: 4 Thesally- Gets a lukewarm call here off the move to Stahl; 2 Personal Pleasure- The qualifier wasn’t half bad, this field is; 1 Wolf Creek Dancer- inconsistent, but the rail may help.

Race 3: 3 Blueridge Tornado- Gets massive class relief and shows regular work; 7 Jailhouse Dale- Moves from a good trot barn to a red-hot one, may surprise; 1 My Mystique- Shows some moderate closes.

Race 4: 1 Ideal Ticket- Comes off two second place efforts; 6 Lenny Bromac N- Good Q, but not the most durable animal ever; 5 Zeus’s Spirit- Will be on the point, but probably won’t last; 9 Chocolate Crush- Moves back up off a win for a barn that isn’t en fuego, but is at least smoldering a little bit.

Race 5: 3 Beware Of The Diva- Nearly got it done in last at good odds, price won’t be as good here; 2 Amber Glo- Has some speed & may be a factor if she gets a rest; 5 Northern Haze- Seems better w/ Lasix.

Race 6: 4 Australian Stock- has been facing far better and should handle these; 3 Mr Sam- No chance last time from the snowman, usually good inside; 5 Date Worthy- Usually contends seriously in this class.

Race 7: 5 Western Empire- He’s the class of the field and someone had to win; 4 Native Fate-Bad posts the last two, maybe the move in will help; 1 Liltycantbedenied- Well, yes, he can, but he should be onty his ticket from the rail; 7 Eclipse Seelster- Maybe Josh woke him up for trainer Guptill.

Race 8: 3 Cousin Mikey- Is always real good or real bad, I think he will be good tonight; 7 Ron Jeremy- got up late last time, post hurts; 6 Buzz Hershey- Gets Stahl and may be sitting on a big effort.

Race 9: 1 Star Drifter N- That is a very nice mile at Attica, even if was a good trip; 5 Depravedhedonist- Likely fave impressed in last and is ETE; 4 Lima Jag- Has been good in two of his last three, perhaps.

Race 10: 1 Ridge Park- I think he needs the top here and should get it; 2 Thatll Work- Gets Noble and seems to be at the proper level in this race; 9 No No Richard- How will he deal with the 2nd tier? That is the question; 3 Man I’m Good- Well, yes, but you move up in class here, but you could still improve,

Race 11: 1 One Day Wonder- Has beaten these in the last two & draws well again; 5 Lucca’s Revenge- Gets a barn change (shocking!) and still figures; 8 High Heels N Spurs- Nice trotter, nice driver, bad post.

Race 12: 9 Pure Fantasy- Recent efforts have been iffy, but man this is a soft group; 4 Robin Dontget- Has two recent on-the-board finishes; 2 Roman Knows Best- Another chance with this good draw,

Race 13: 5 Tooter Lane- Old guy gets the call off the class relief; 1 Rounding Third- has ability, but I’d like him better with a catch driver; 3 Carolina Song- Will be on the point. In my mind, I’m going to Carolina; 7 Southview Don- Solid results and getting Noble may negate the poor post draw.

Just another Manic Monday

2011-08-12T12:33:00.000-07:00

A tough, tough card, but a playable Pick 4!

The $10K Guaranteed Pick 4 on races 8-11 features 14% takeout

The play: 2/127/13469/123= $45

Analysis: Race 8- 2)Taxed has been awesome in this class and can win by as many as he wants.
Race 9-2)Supreme Ruler is my top choice and 7)VP Hot Rod is the only other who has a chance on paper, but the 1) Sleek Fish worries me. He's been awful lately, but...
Race 10: Wide open and my actual play (if I have the guts to cut Sleek Fish) could be 2/27/all/123=$54
Race 11:2) Upfrontoutthedoor and 3)Camdestin appear best, but they opened up the race for 1)Move It Forward who could contend with a flat mile

Here is the entire card. Good luck!

Race 1: 5 Sam’s Profile- Seems to be on n upward form swing; 3 Little Lee- Likely favorite after a good 2nd place effort, 1st time Lasix; 6 Christmas Knight- Has picked up checks in four of last five starts.

Race 2: 7 Thomas Be Quick- Amy’s been driving this one, maybe they should sell him to Tom Swift; 3 Redzilla- Has really fallen on hard times, but has some ability; 8 Super Rapper- Always does work, but is hurt by the snowman.

Race 3: 1 Red Heads Star- Noble and the rail should put Perrin in the winners circle; 5 Laag The Mile- Tends to hang around and figures this cheap; 8 Scootin Jetta- Fresh horse and good qualifier, but horrible post.

Race 4: 2 Wild Nordic- Probably should have won last week. Another chance, but we won’t get 7-1; 3 Spit Happens- Massive class relief after two tries with amateurs; 4 Mr Fenton- Closed well last time, but was a beaten favorite; 1 Stock Boy Freddie- Very consistent at the bottom of tickets.

Race 5: 3 Sammy Merlot- Won’t get “Sideways” with Aaron driving; 5 He Cantab You- Has a chance with his best raceway post in over a month; 7 Mutual Funs- The old guy needs to do more than he has shown lately.

Race 6: 3 Doowrah’s Trifold- With the class drop may enrich Harwood’s Billfold; 1 Iloolikemygranny- Fresh horse, barn change, why not; 4 Goodnite Wilbur- Technically is dropping below the level of his last win, six back.

Race 7: 2 Magnaflo- Still green, but improving with Lasix; 4 Oh Justice- Has shown flashes of ability, but is still trying to figure it all out; 3 Next Chip- Stays close, but needs to show me more work; 9 Empire Earth- From the second tier, will the Empire strike back?

Race 8: 2 Taxed- Wins his way out of the class tonight to the relief of many, including bettors; 5 Star Dazzler- Consistently second best to Virgil-trainees; 4 Scooter In Motion- Does work, doesn’t sustain it. Needs to do more.

Race 9: 2 Supreme Ruler- Charlino’s choice over the #4 looked good last week; 7 Vp Hot Rod- Doing good work,. But tiring late, probably still cuts it; 3 Nuclear Sam- Fresh horse angle despite just 1 on-the-board finish in 2010-11.

Race 10: 6 Tieler Bea Hotspur- Let’s see if the barn change makes a difference; 4 Bodandy Andy- Or if this one does; 3 Polo Joe- Disappointed in last, another chance; Rabbitman- Looks to be four-in-a-rown fourth and they opened up the race for him.

Race 11: 2 Upfrontoutthedoor- From the two-hole, he should be Upfrontdowntheroad; 1 Move It Forward- Good advice for Swartz the way this one leaves, or doesn’t; 3 Camdestin- Got a good local win and may be getting braver.

Race 12: 3 Rose Run Freddie- Must get the call, but will he mind his manners? 4 Trytopass Sam- Had no excuse last time; 5 Whatsupwiththat- Wildly inconsistent, but he could be another J’s Whiskers.

Race 13: 4 Hoosier Lion- Probably should have won the last one, but Noble will know him better now; 9 Cunning Design- Consistently on the board and has no excuse this low in class; 7 Zeller’s Island- Gets a barn change and Aaron Merriman; 3 Noble Thought- For some unexplainable reason, I keep coming back to him.

Saturday Stuff

2011-08-12T11:57:00.001-07:00

With Aaron Merriman actually driving, this looks like a playable card. I'm on the road with the soccer team- Perrysburg this weekend, so good luck without me.

Race 1: 3 Co Line Hard Drive- Had no chance from outside dropping down last time, she might here; 4 Gram Of Gold- Getting Aaron makes a ton of difference for her; 1 Friendly Kathy- Must be considered from the rail.

Race 2: 5 Count On Ben- Solid and faces arguably his softest competition in a while; 6 Upfront Jesse- Virgil’s barn should get all the money here; 2 Traintofly- Tired late and it wasn’t as if he was pressured. Another chance.

Race 3: 1 Townline Powerful- Merriman’s choice gets the rail and should be solid; 3 Banker Bob- My original pick, but Aaron chose off, perhaps out of loyalty, but… 2 Auto Pilot- Has shown signs of life & should be on the point.

Race 4: 1 Museum Piece- Is a bit inconsistent, but generally races well at this level; 2 Currently Flying- Pack animal Always hangs around and must be considered from inside; 5 Gold Fever- Excuse the last start off a sick scratch, a major player here; 4 Sky Strikes- Racing better, but Aaron chose off.

Race 5: 8 Holdzmfronfloppin- Gets the call with Aaron in the bike despite the snowman, hoping we get a decent return; 1 Shady Attack- Improving and gets the rail; 5 Towners Great Lady- Needs to finish her mile stronger.

Race 6: 2 Mm’s Shocking Guy- Way down in class for Charlino after facing Open pacers recently; 3 Fantasy Character- Always hangs around, but isn’t winning races this year; 6 Samovar Hanover- Could add value.

Race 7: 2 Great Balldini- Looked good in debut for current connections; 9 E C K- Could trip out for Charlino to make it two in a row; 3 Genesis See Yah- Does work, but needs to sustain it, consider due to past local success.

Race 8: 6 Wow Power- Should be solid with Aaron in the bike; 5 Gordie How- Has back class but must finish better than he has been; 7 Fox Valley Flyby- Always does work, but may be hampered by this draw.

Race 9: 4 Chang Dynasty- Seems to have recovered from his breaking issues; 6 Show Me Big Slick- Very good qualifier, but the time off concerns me; 1 Mattonthechooch- Beat these three back and should be good from the rail/

Race 10: 9 Too Good Too Pass- Gets class relief after an Open win, how does he deal with the 2nd tier? 1 Norma’s Rose- Classy animal always races well for Charlino; 4 On The Tab- A pair of good Qs for last year’s Hambletonian finalist. May need a start for Slippery Bill; 3 Lookslikefire- Racing well but faces a tough group here.
Race 11: 1 Moreland Flash- Should win easily from the rail; 6 Mypanmar- Very classy animal has his work cut out for him; 2 Colossal Cruiser- In rarefied air, but should get a good trip behind my top choice.

Race 12: 4 Dragon Smoke- Yet another Straub & Stahl collaboration. Strain is ice-cold at .446; 5 I’ve Got Life- May be better in his second try at this level; 3 Rapid City- Best of the rest, but needs it all to fall his way to win.

Race 13: 2 Eagle Jacob- Drops down and draws well, plus the Swartz will be with him; 1 Lrs Mamas Boy- This one also drops down off some good efforts; 9 Depravedhedonist- Should hang with these, but not at his bets right now; 4 Frenchies Pride- Impressed from the snowman with Charlino, but faces tougher.

Northfield Friday with OH SS!

2011-08-10T11:00:00.000-07:00

A sad state that there are so few going for so much money in the Sires Stakes, but it is good to see there are some pretty darn good Ohio-breds out there.
Good luck!

Race 1: 1 Rose Run Natassia- Much better on the chooch and she will be here; 4 Wardon’s Daughter- Versatile and has room to improve; 2 U R Toast- The Greeno hot at Northfield angle. (Taking a chance the fave breaks)

Race 2: 1 Lady Of The Dragon- First recent time with Aaron, she should win from the rail; 4 Savannnah Girl- Gets Noble, a positive regardless of the circumstance; 9 Stonebridge Beauty- Was better dropping into this level.

Race 3: 6 Lady At Bat- A slight call in the weaker of the two heats; 1 Tt’s Taterchip- Are you sure they didn’t seed these? 3 Vada Victory- Fresh hands and finally shows a flat mile.

Race 4: 2 M A Maria- Shows previous success w/Wyatt, but for a different barn; 3 Hurricane Hanna- Gets class relief but was awful last week; 1 Dreamfair Frannie- Third back and should be forward early; 7 Eagle Winter- Was competitive from a good draw against similar, needs a trip from out here.

Race 5: 4 Haley Louise- Very sharp, but can be her own worst enemy; 1 Airie Feeling- Hangs around against lesser, maybe the rail helps here; 3 Friskie Beauty- Has hung around with the best in the state and figures here.

Race 6: 7 Coupon Lady- Draws even farther outside, but so sharp you have pick her; 6 Jimi’s Little Wing- Always contends and should add value; 2 Radiant Star- loves up off two sharp wins and Swartz picked over the rail horse.

Race 7: 2 Emma Rose Ben- Raced well dropping last time and now drops even more; 3 Allamerican Dora- Middle of the pack sort may do slightly better here; 5 Enticing Attack- Not a fan, but must consider with Noble; 9 Better Hustle- Was fourth from the nine hole last week with Angus, now she gets trainer Lanny.

Race 8: 2 Gadjet- Maybe the win last week wakes her up, she has back class; 6 Campside Angel- Gets Aaron for the first time in ages and will likely be favored; 3 Dream Misty- Moderate recent closes get her on the ticket.

Race 9: 4 Paris H- Has had success with Aaron in the past, but shows little on current form; 3 She’sa Town Girl- Harris chose off, but Noble makes her a contender; 8 Silky Sailor- hampered by the snowman, but a chance.

Race 10: 3 Darting Larkin- May swell up off an impressive win against lesser; 1 Hula Lu- There’s that pesky 1st-time Aaron angle again, what to do? 9 Lima Adore- Contender gets Noble, but I’m not wild about 2nd tier start; 4 Soaring Cloud- Moves up two classes, but is razor sharp and may just handle it.

Race 11: 8 Moira’s Bliss- Class relief off two straight open wins, snowman a slight issue; 1 Storms Never Last- Has tactical speed and crushed slightly lesser last time; 6 Osborne’s Gypsy- Time off worries me or she’s be on top.

Race 12: 1 Karrydale Charm- Was better off barn change and now gets Noble and the rail; 5 Stox Up Bluegrass- This one gets class relief, but current form is iffy; 3 Sa Da Me Lady- Closed well in last & gets a 3rd -start back angle.

Race 13: 2 Getherdonesue- Ends a string of miserably draws and may getherdone tonight; 1 Doowrah Silver- Wins the silver medal from the rail; 6 Theprincessdeals- Gets the Swartz back with her; 3 Medoland Kendall- Gets her best draw since who can remember when, but is so inconsistent she is a hard one to pick.

Wednesday, one of those YIKES! cards

2011-08-08T12:16:00.000-07:00

I like a ton of longshots and a ton of horses from the eight hole. I am either cashing big or going home broke. (I am actually going to a Boosters meeting).

There is a $10,000 Guaranteed Pick 4 with a 14% takeout on races 8-11.

The play:16/257/26/179= $36

Race 8:6) Vince The Man gets class relief and Dan Noble, but the 1)Samovar hanover just worries me- can't put my finger on it.
Race 9: 5)Sj's Manawa Sam is super sharp, but was a beaten fave moving up to this level last time. 7)Ilooklikerudy is not that effective from outside posts and 2)One Day Wonder could get a similar trip to last week's winning one.
Race 10: 2)Drop of Numteg is my best bet of the night and I am still not comfortable singling her. 6) Date Night K finally got some last week and may be much braver here.
Race 11: Wide open, but i can only go three deep. 1)Moon River dell always contends when inside; 7) Native Fate gets a significant barn change and 9)Snooz Attack shows nothing but good lines with Dan Noble driving.

Here are the rest of the picks. Good luck! (sorry for the delay- blogger software is not the most reliable in the world)

Race 1: 2 What Would You Do- Solid qually leaves the question, as a fave, WWYD? 6 Endless Vacation- Risky class dropper, as I forego a great joke; 5 Prime Number- Benefited from a pedestrian back half.

Race 2: 8 Little Creek Vic- Nice win in last with Russ + a good price if he overcomes bad post; 1 Celebrity Wonder- Class dropper figures from the rail; 3 Master Lad Pro- One of several they opened it up for.

Race 3: 2 Tic Tic Tic Boom- Had an excuse in last and Lasix may help; 6 Izalovelyscooter- Good effort in last, his 1st w/Daren; 8 Kingfishers Gold- Penalized by the snowman and those fair lines mean little, but…

Race 4: 2 Traintofly- Another chance as the boss takes over the lines; 5 Cummingsandgoings- Decent close to beat these last week; 3 Vibrato- Back inside and back with a tag should both help; 9 Jazzys Boy- Struggled on the move up, but may get a better trip here.

Race 5: 2 Princess C- Has been caught in some fast miles at ScD, taking a chance; 5 Northern Haze- Has turned it on since getting Lasix, but is still winless; 3 Camdestin- Inconsistent, but figures with her best.

Race 6: 4 Date Worthy- Risky choice, but she can close & the race is speed crazy; 5 Christina Victory- Big time class relief & moves in a few spots; 1 Legacy Chip- Has speed and must be factored rom the rail.

Race 7: 4 Ccs Belief- Should be better against these than against the $3s; 3 Western Empire- Just feel like he may finish this mile better; 2 Zeus’s Spirit- Beau will have him on the point, but can he stay there? 8 Liftoff Bayama- Closer gets a miserable draw but should pass a few late.

Race 8: 6 Vince The Man- Has faced better and has previous local success; 7 Slade Gram- Inconsistent, but can be a part of it; 1 Samovar Hanover- Rail & a rather weak eligible-at-time-of-entry get the show spot.

Race 9: 5 Sj’s Manawa Sam- Doing the best racing of his life, despite getting beat in last; 7 Ilooklikerudy- Last week from the snowman wasn’t that bad; 2 One Day Wonder- Tripped out to win the last week.

Race 10: 2 Drop Of Nutmeg- Another chance after a disappointing effort, maybe due to post; 6 Date Night K- Solid and needed win at the bottom; 5 Dm Fatboy Slim- NW1L8 always contends; 8 Jeremy’s Chaser- Has done everything but win in his last five, he won’t from outside tonight, either, but he still factors.

Race 11: 9 Snooz Attack- Inconsistent, but usually does at least some work; 7 Native Fate- Gets a barn change and might go forward; 1 Moon River Dell- The rail and some tactical speed make him a playa.

Race 12: 1 Altesse- It’s a big move up, but boy he looked good a few weeks back; 5 Catherinethegreat- I think Kurt helps her; 4 High Heels N Spurs- Moves up off a break, but should still contend.

Race 13: 9 Hard Time Gone- Look for improvement third time B. Knipper; 1 Robin Dontget- Doesget a much better post, which may help; 4 Liltycantbedenied- Tends to hang around, but not show much pop; 8 Lima Ritch- We wrap things up with a record number of eight-hole horse predicted on the ticket.

Monday means Minimnal Purses, but...

2011-08-05T12:58:00.000-07:00

...plenty of wagering opportunities! I like this card a lot and will probably bne on BetHarness most of the night.

There is a $10K Guaranteed pick 4 with a 14% Takeout on races 8-11

The Play:46/456/1237/12=$48.

Analysis: Race 8- 4) Ideal Treasure was a huge in the maiden win, Who cares if she is six? take a shot shows consistent good efforts at Scioto and gets Aaron Merriman.

Race 9: Noble chose 5) Category Six over 4)Bodandy Andy, who gets Merriman and won't be hurt. They seem, The two best, but Tieler Bea Hotspur can sneak in a strong mile when you least expect it.

Race 10:Wide Open and I could easily go 6 deep. 3)Mutual Funs will be overbet and trotters coming in from Buffalo/Batavia generally don't do well here first time back.

Race 11: 2)Blue My Mind raced well against a prety classy animal in Polo Joe last week and gets the edge; 1)Three Sox Missing had the class opened up for him, gets the rail and gets back red-hot Russ Swartz, who won with him in this class two back.

Here are the rest of the picks. Good luck.

Race 1: 2 Verge Of Victory- Noble gives her the edge; 1 Next Chip- Has done good work lately and gets the rail, but is 0-15 lifeitme; 5 Christmas Knight- 100% homebred seems to improving slightly with each start.

Race 2: 3 E C K- Looked a bit better dropping down to this level; 5 Laag The Mile- Drops to level of his last win, but has been awful since, cam Swartz help? 8 Pure Fantasy- They opened it up for him, then he draws the snowman.

Race 3: 3 Abby- Back in at her proper level she should excel; 1 Little Treasures- Shows generally good efforts, Swartz may help; 8 Scoremania- They opened it up for him, then he draws the snowman. And no, I’m not stuttering.

Race 4: 1Mac Only Bill- A bit off his game last time, gets Aaron here and should win; 2 Bucks Luck- Should trip out in this one; 5 Supreme Ruler- Charlino is a difference maker; 8 Ohio Star- Sit in, wait ‘til late and then pass a few.

Race 5: 4 Done It All- Is Noble from Pork Chop a positive driver change? 2 R Cowboy- Classy old horse is reunited with A. Merriman. Scoreboard; 3 Wild Nordic- Needs a better trip, from the looks of things.

Race 6: 6 Mr Fenton- We get a classic third start back angle and he should break through; 4 Call Me Merkle- Was killed by the trip last week, another chance; 5 Super Rapper- Always contends, but hasn’t won in quite a while.

Race 7: 8 Taxed- It appears this one has improved just slightly with Noble driving; 1 Man I’m Good- Break ended a run of good results, back in with claimers here; 5 Firm Jet- Just needs to sustain his work, still green at seven.

Race 8: 4 Ideal Treasure- Moves up off an impressive with for her connections; 6 Take A Shot Scott- Could surprise these; 5 Move It Forward- Raced well on the bottom of the form, but recent efforts not so much.

Race 9: 5 Category Six- Huge class drop and Noble chose over the other logical one; 4 Bodandy Andy- NW1L8 isn’t a factor in this class that often, it is here; 6 Tieler Bea Hotspur- Has done moderate work the last few races.

Race 10: 2 Trytopass Sam- Gets his nose on the gate and may beat this bunch; 1 Diehl’s Deal- Let’s see if Charlino gets him straightened out; 7 Whatsupwiththat- Flat effort after a series of good ones for Kenan Thompson’s fave horse; 3 Mutual Funs- Gets class relief but will need a start or two here.

Race 11: 2 Blue My Mind- Raced well from the outside and should cut this one; 1 Three Sox Missing- Won with Swartz two back and this is a similar group (they opened it up for him, too).

Race 12: 1 Perfekjenlmnkalfas- Needs to pace the mile. If he does, game, set match; 2 Bell Valley Diva- Will be on the point but probably won’t last; 7 Classy Rocket- Sure looked classy in his debut with a tag, may surprise.

Race 13: 2 Hoosier Lion- Aaron chose off so Rachel gets stuck with Noble. Oh well; 4 Townline Powerful- Aaron chose the Rideout trainee in what looks to me like a loyalty call; 3 Carolina Song- Classic third back angle and has gone some decent miles; 1 Tin Star- Keeping it all inside with this one who comes off two decent efforts.

Saturday stuff

2011-08-05T11:15:00.000-07:00

Hard to believe it is August already. Time flies when you are having fun, I guess. The horse shortage appears to have become acute, as it looks like Northfield has gone to 8-horse fields. I wish we could see 9s at least in the super races, but i understand the move.

Here are the picks. good luck!

Race 1: 2 Fantasy Character- Three straight quality efforts one level up and now gets Charlino; 1 Unrecognized Saint- Faced better in Indy, but will need a local start; 7 Eagle Jacob- Always works, post is the issue.

Race 2: 5 Currently Flying- ETE off a smashing win, gets the call despite Dan choosing off; 3 Backbeat Hall- Have to give him a look with Charlino choosing him; 4 Christmas Photo K- has raced better with Lasix and may surprise.

Race 3: 6 Moon River Dell- Slight call in a slight group of mostly NW1L8; 1 Auto Pilot- Have to give him a look from the rail; 8 Frenchies Pride- Snowman hurts, but this is a huge driver improvement.

Race 4: 5 Rose Run Luther- Ultra sharp right now and odds may be okay; 2 Giulio- Needed the confidence booster last time and should go forward, but he’s no value; 1 Alliance Hall- Will use his speed from the rail; 6 Lookslikefire- Improving and can get a small part.

Race 5: 7 Depravedhedonist- Not that good from out here, but gets a super-soft group; 6 Pandora’s Gambit N- My gambit would be to box Pandora and the Hedonist; 3 Dm Fatboy Slim- Class and post relief after three solid efforts.

Race 6: 6 Can’t Fence Me In- Like so many Jesses, he’s matured with age; 5 North’s Chester- Just keeps plugging away for Eidens; 3 Here I Glow- May be a factor with this good post draw.

Race 7: 3 Gordie How- Not sure when he raced this cheap (not counting the fairs); 2 Extremely Fast- He was on his return, but not quite enough; 1 Jennas Dream- Should be Koch-ing from the rail; 5 Key Western – Quality animal, but Charlino chose #2 over him and #1.

Race 8: 4 Fox Valley Flyby- Moves up for slumping trainer Straub, with a paltry .452 UTRS; 7 Delivered Rules- Dan C took 2010 local HOTY over #3 & #5; 6 I Know Your Lookin- Consistent, but does his best racing from further in.

Race 9: 3 Moreland Flash- Ends string of miserable posts & gets Charlino; 6 Amos Moses- Gator poacher impressed with life mark in last; 5 I’ve Got Life- Cost me a Pick Four with the win, but he figures on memories alone.

Race 10: 5 Dax Hanover- Just a hunch in a well-matched field; 4 Goin Home Ray- Needs to do a bit more than he has been lately; 1 Winter Cruise- Must consider from the rail’ 8 Rapid Pursuit- Would be higher on my ticket if not for the dreaded snowman.
Race 11: 4 Go Cowboy Go- Drops well below the level of his last win, worth as go despite inconsistency; 3 Westedge Matt- Always hangs around and should again; 5 Sunburned Vern- Had success here last year, chancy.

Race 12: 1 Sky Strikes- In a very sharp form cycle right now, the call, despite the move up; 5 Stand Tall McGraw- Also moves up in good form- 4 Heez Ruthless N- He’s not eligible at time of entry, but he still fits with these,.

Race 13: 5 Chang Dynasty- Wasn’t exactly a world-beater last time, but at least he paced the mile; 1 Egotistic Pro- Former stablemate of the pick good get the money; 3 Tooter Lane- Old guy gets class relief; 6 Polo Joe- Best of the rest despite a tough season.

May the Swartz be with you this Friday

2011-08-03T12:09:00.001-07:00

Since July 1, Nobody has won more races at Northfield than Russ Swartz, so we will keep throwing out the obscure Mel Brooks reference whenever we can. his UDRS in that time is .312, so it is quality and quantity, even though Noble and -ROD ARE AROUND .400 in limited local duty. BTW- Number two in wins since July 1? Robin Miller.

Here are the picks. Good luck.

Race 1: 8 Medoland Jesse- Soft group, but I have a hunch this one may go forward despite the snowman; 6 Jarmoto- Post doesn’t help her, but she fits; 4 Jills Elegance- Newcomer may need a local start.

Race 2: 3 Storms Never Last- Razor sharp and was absolutely awesome last week, class jump no issue, imo; 6 What’s Your Fantasy- Beat these last time but isn’t as effective from out here; 1 Dream Misty- Factors from the rail.

Race 3: 1 Jj’s Request- Has the rail. If you can find a better angle here, play it; 2 Friendly Kathy- Gest fresh hands and an inside draw; 3 Dragon Lily- Oh, the joys of being a public handicapper.

Race 4: 2 Karrydale Charm- Lasix and barn change may make her Sugg-cessful; 1 Makybe Diva- Rail may not help this iffy-gaited behind the gate youngster, but let’s take a shot; 5 Vivacious Raider- Showing improvement over last two races; 8 Ursula K- First time Swartz and he is red-hot over the last couple weeks.

Race 5: 4 Sa De Me Lady- May be better 2nd time Lasix with a catch-driver; 1 Savannah Girl- Races evenly & may be a bit forward from the rail; 3 Silky Sailor- One of these days she’ll refined the form that has won 60 career races.

Race 6: 2 scoot To The Top- Trip just didn’t work out last time, another chance; 5 All Over Now- Raced well with Swartz, who has more wins here than anyone since July 1; 9 Thessaly- Seems to be improving with Lasix.

Race 7: 5 Miss Port Foal Leo- Drops down after doing intermittent work against better; 3 Back Home Again- All about the draw for this one; 4 Darting Larkin- Contended with these last time despite an awful draw; 6 Imagine Freedom- Form cycle seems upwards and she may surprise here.

Race 8: 5 Gadjet- One of these days the Swartz will truly be with her; 12 Saratoga’s Best- Is this a for sale sign, or just trying to find a class to race her? 4 Theprincessdeals- Dominates last time, but Swartz chose off.

Race 9: 1 Boo Hoo- Massive class drop after very good efforts against much better; 2 St Jated Strike- good draw for yet another one who has gone forward for Russ; 5 Gram Of Gold- Seems this sulker actually tried in 3 of last 4.

Race 10: 3 Campside Angel- Beat these easily with a solid performance and now get Angus; 1 Jessies Band- Moves up, but seems to be improving; 7 Sunrise Sunset- May not be close enough early, but she impressed me last week; 8 Jimi’s Little Wing- As consistent as they come, but can she overcome the snowman?

Race 11: 6 Fast Attack- Seemed to be in position when things broke; 9 Electric Presence- Was competitive her only time racing at this level; 4 Paint Tina- Seems like a different animal if you fire her up off the wings.

Race 12: 2 Mach N Cookies- Drops to the level of last win and shows adequate work, I’ll take 15-1; 4 Moira’s Intended- NW1L8 has an advantage here despite iffy form; 8 Whoville- Bad draw, but she is the other NW1L8.

Race 13: 3 Hurricane Hanna- Has previous local success, needs a better trip than the last one; 2 Soaring Cloud- Always hangs around and the two hole won’t hurt; 6 Drop Of Nutmeg- Gotta love those Nova Scotia-breds, especially down in class; 4 Sadie Falcon- Always hangs around, but needs to do more to be better on this ticket.

Wednesday's wild winners 8/3

2011-08-01T08:01:00.000-07:00

It's August. Hot. Humid. And soccer. But fear not, we will continue to provide picks all season, with the exception of a couple days when I am traveling.

Wednesday features a $10K Guaranteed pick 4 on races 8-11, with a low 14% takeout.
The play: 2579/14/1349/6= $32
And 579/1/134/26= $18 Total invested $50

Analysis: Race 8: Lots of contenders here, but nobody whose form exactly instills confidence so we have to go deep.
Race 9: I was tempted to single 1) Powerful Cam after a dominating win at the bottom. Plus, Russ Swartz has been en fuego lately. But, he is moving up and we have been waiting for 4) Currently Flying to go forward. I would hate to see a repeat of my I've Got Life play from last week
Race 10: Again, lots of contenders, but not many with recent wins. 2)Chang Dynasty has made breaks in three of his last three starts. He'll still be favored. Value in this one.
Race 11: 6) SJ's Manawa Sam moves up off two straight life marks. I know many 'cappers don't like older horses coming off life marks, but that is logic I have never understood. 2)Anastasia Wildfire can fly late, so she goes on my saver ticket.

Here are the rest of the picks:

Race 1: 3 Master Lad Pro- Gets a lukewarm call here; 6 Going Hollywood- Only NW1L8 has some back class, but hasn’t shown much since returning; 1 Valentino’s Peace- Must consider Swifty from the rail.

Race 2: 4 Lucky Rockn Horse- Has shown moderate closes since coming here and may have more; 1 Classy Rocket- Improved off a decent qualifier; 2 Rydan- Well-connected freshman makes his debut.

Race 3: 2 Jh Action- Has been hanging around & gets his best raceway post; 5 Yocky- I drove his old man Josh Gibson a few times, how’s that for an angle? 8 Sari Sue- Nice filly is hampered by the snowman.

Race 4: 4 Carolina Song- Contended in local debut off a big drop and a rest; 3 Southview Don- Seems to be improving; 2 Race Track Cruiser- Just missed from the extreme outside last time, but no value; 7 Ron Jeremy- He’s the class of the field, but can he overcome the bad draw?

Race 5: 2 My Mystique- Racing well when she stays flat, which is not quite often enough; 3 Super Rapper- Should be on the chooch here; 6 Go Merrily Along- Gets some class relief which should help.

Race 6: 2 Mr Kite- Wake-up call last time, he can handle these; 1 Eddie C Hanover- Still green and gets class relief, may go forward; 5 Blissfull Court- Seems to be getting tighter with each start.

Race 7: 9 Camdestin- Move to a catch driver will be Sugg-cessful; 3 Boogie With Stu- Will he hold together or bounce off a very nice Q? 7 Desired Entry- Has always done good work and appears very professional; 8 Sand Summer- Has been facing better, but this draw makes things tough.

Race 8: 9 Date Worthy- Has to depend on the fractions, but if she fires, She’ll be good; 5 Lucca’s Revenge- Would benefit from a two-hole trip; 7 Pray To Me- Starting to put it all together.

Race 9: 1 Powerful Cam- Moves up off an impressive win and will be somewhat forward early; 6 Doowrah’s Trifold- Just a hunch; 4 Currently Flying- Just keeps hanging around. Will score soon.

Race 10: 1 Zakman- Drops to the level of his last win and gets the rail; 9 Big Valley- Has been competitive and should get a good trip; 3 Gina Marie P- Drops back down and is a major player; 4 Heez Ruthless N- Is actually the most consistent of these and I don’t quite get the 12-1 ML.

Race 11: 6 Sj’s Manawa Sam- Red hot driver and horse look for 3rd straight life mark; 2 Anastasia Wildfire- Got caught in traffic last time; 7 Llc- Always hangs around, but post hurts him.

Race 12: 4 E C K- Drops to the level of his last win, six back; 6 Date Knight K- Robin chose him over the #2 and #3; 1 Ben’s Big Bird- Third back and the rail make him a contender.

Race 13: 4 Ramember- Has had no shot at all with his recent posts; 7 Snooz Attack- Shows some good lines, but this draw concerns me; 1 Mac Only Bill- Always hangs around, maybe he wins from the rail; 9 Auto Pilot- Has really been slumping, but should get a ground saving journey here.

Monday feels like Saturday again

2011-07-29T11:32:00.000-07:00

With the Summit County fair at Northfield Saturday, and the need to fill that card with some overnights, the Monday card features the top Saturday horses, including millionaire Mypanmar, who I will try to get beat.

There is a $10,000 Guaranteed Pick 4 with 14% takeout on races 8-11.

My play: 2369/35/12467/2=$40

Analysis: Race 8- The two streaking horses, 2)Fox Valley Flyby and 3)Jl Nate The Great appear very good, but 6) Go Cowboy Go is racing well and won the class last time at this level.I don't really like 9)Extremely Fast's form, but I have to use him as the ML choice with massive class releif.

Race 9: Tempted to single 3) Man I'm Good, but any horse named after an alligator poacher, even a fictional one, gets my attention so we use 5) Amos Moses as well.

Race 10: 6) The Long Goodbye is the logical choice, but hasn't won in awhile, so we will go deep here. Lots of question and "what if" scenarios.

Race 11: 2)Westedge Matt is very professional, very sharp and draws well. I think he wins easily and we will single him.

Here are the rest of the picks. Good luck.

Race 1: 5 Upfront Jesse- Moves up off the maiden win and should put in a Noble effort; 2 Tory- Has speed and draws well, worth considering; 6 North’s Chester- Stalwart contends off his best, but he’s been here for a while.
Race 2: 7 Blue My Mind- Drops to the bottom and gets Noble, I’d like him even better inside; 1 Polo Joe- First giood draw of 2011, but needs to show more; 3 Hoosier Lion- Tactical speed will have him roaring early.
Race 3: 1 Eye On The Prize- Moves up off effort that is better than it appears and gets Aaron; 2 Mr Sam- Showed improvement in drop back to this class in last; 9 Trytopass Sam- Still don’t know if it’s a challenge or an exhortation.
Race 4: 9 Taxed- The maiden breakthrough was a good one and he should handle the move up; 3 Bella Bionda- Always does work, but still trying to learn how to race; 6 Star Dazzler- Should improve with Aaron in the bike; 2 Israeli Hall- Was roughed up after a good string of “on the super” performances.
Race 5: 5 Trainedtofly- Dominated the conditioned claimers last time and gets my call to upset these; 4 Smok’n Muscles- Should be good if he can deal with the half-mile oval; 9 Can’t Fence Me In- May be at the mercy of the trip.
Race 6: 7 Giulio- Wins if he stays flat, a big if, granted; 8 Christina Victory- Very nice mare gave effort from the outside last time; 1 Lookslikefire- Lookslikeadifferenthorse in his last two starts. Positive form cycle.
Race 7: 1 Osborne’s Yankee- Gets class relief and draws well; 6 I Know Your Lookin- Has been the most consistent in the top local pace; 9 Mypanmar- I know he has $1.48 million, but this isn’t the Hilliard Fair; 7 Delivered Rules- Northfield’s 2010 HOTY is racing better than he was earlier this season.

Race 8: 2 Fox Valley Flyby- He’s razor sharp & should flyby these; 3 Jl Nate The Great- He also looks for his 4th in a row, but faces tougher than he was; 9 Extremely Fast- Faced better in Pennsy, but hasn’t shown me enough work.

Race 9: 3 Man I’m Good- Moves out of conditioned claimers even though still eligible; 5 Amos Moses- Could be racing about “45 minutes Southeast of Thibodeaux, Louisiana”; 6 Three To Get Ready- Swartz may put on a show.

Race 10: 6 The Long Goodbye- Has been showing signs of life recently. Hello; 1 Artistic Dreamer- Solid contender from the rail, but Aaron chose off; 7 Jenna’s Dream- Reunited with Charlino, but current form is suspect; 2 J D’s Turismo- Inconsistent, but should be good enough to wrap up the super in this one.

Race 11: 2 Westedge Matt- Racing brave and should handle the move up in class; 5 Hummer N- Gets a class break and was racing well before he got the freshening; 3 Gold Fever- Would have him on top if not for the sick scratch.

Race 12: 6 Fantasy Character- Seems to have found his best level; 2 Leroy Mot- Noble chose the Amman-trainee, not news, but this one now gets Stahl. That is; 3 Key Western- Classy old horse gets Charlino and always tries.

Race 13: 1 Lawsuit- First time Noble on the Beachy-trainee; 9 Christmas Photo K- Looks like Lasix is helping and Swartz will give him a patient trip; 5 Worries Stay Small- Took pressure in last, Merriman for Kramp should help; 4 Fancy Schmansy- Drops to the level of his last win, but has been pretty hard on himself lately.

Saturday at the Summit

2011-07-28T10:55:00.000-07:00

The Summit County Fair/Buckeye Super Stakes are not what they once were, with purses rivaling the Ohio Sires Stakes, but they are still a chance to see some pretty nice youngsters chase some decent purses. While usually pretty chalky, there are always a couple good prices IF you can find them. Watch the warm-ups and post parades closely, especially with the trotters. Good luck!

Race 1: 5 Count On Ben- He is going to be overbet and he’s not invincible, but he gets a slight call; 3 Northmedo Wine Guy- Solid, other than the Marysville line; 2 Sams Yankee- Steps up, but is doing good work and improving.

Race 2: 5 Rose Run Natassia- Maybe the straps will help her pull an upset; 3 Jessica Rayne- Supposed to be a good one, she gets another chance after a costly break; 4 Rose Run Nellie- Just keeps getting better and better.

Race 3: 4 Rose Run Mac- Has won 4 in a row on the track & just needs a clear path; 5 Brewing Master- I really like him & and I’m not sure how good he can be; 3 Lima Legend- McKirgan chose off, so Dee is stuck with Noble. Darn.

Race 4: 6 Moon River Dell- Consistent results and gets Lasix for the first time; 1 Moonsailer- This NW1L8 is a solid player from the rail; 3 Stand Tall Mcgraw- He is very consistent, but hasn’t won since last year; 8 Sabastin Seacrest- Gets Noble, but must overcome the snowman here. Anything might happen.

Race 5: 1s Hershberger Entry- Like the horses, like the drivers and like getting 2-4-1; 3 Northmedo Hooray- DEII is competitive with the pros & this gelding is solid; 2 Quantum King Leo- The Miller will tell his tale from inside.

Race 6: 9 Genie Sings- Fresh after two years on the road and the Q was okay; 1 Natural Sevens- Always hangs around, but needs to do a lot more work; 6 Fast Talker Lavec- What might he be if he stays flat?

Race 7: 5 Depravedhedonist- I really like the move to Merriman in the bike; 7 Eagle Jacob- Gets class relief after a very good effort; 6 Bodandy Andy- Noble will be looking for the point with this one, even with this draw; 2 Museum Piece- Showed little last time but should be better reunited with Wyatt.

Race 8: 3 Osborne’s Sweeper- Best bet of the night; 4 Our Little Filly- The July 1 line here tells me she can contend; 6 Cruise On Ashley- Well-bred filly has had some tough trips, but has some ability.

Race 9: 5 Empire Earth- Another one who may be overbet and who doesn’t have to win, but I see little else; 9 Next Chip- Showed some improvement last time; 2 Handsome Howie- Has been facing better with little luck at the fairs.

Race 10: 7 Captain Jesse- Very nice freshman could pull it off if he can overcome the draw; 10 Jailbird Jesse- He’s gonna have to deal with worse traffic than the Innerbelt; 4 Rose Run Nash- Rapidly improving for a hot barn; 3 Countmymuscles- Needs to finish stronger than he has been.

Race 11: 3 Magical New Day- Has been facing better & the last mile against older pacers impresses; 4 Finn Man- Inconsistent, but contends with his best; 2 Rella On Attack- faces a tougher group than at Carrollton or Mt Vernon.

Race 12: 6 Nora’s Dream T- Always contends, she just needs to finish her mile for a change; 7 Spiced Pork- Has faced better with little recent success. Aaron helps; 4 Canadian Frontier- A different animal when on the engine.

Race 13: 5 Egotistic Pro- Ha returned to Northfield with an exclamation point! 4 Kb’s On My Toes- Rounding into form and must be considered; 1 Goodnite Wilbur- Tends to be pretty good from the rail; 2 Panpoint Accuracy- Was much better last start, until the late bobble.

Friday Filly and Mares and a surprise

2011-07-27T15:02:00.001-07:00

You may want to listen carefully to the first few races and then look around a bit afterwards. Good luck!

You may want to pay close attention to Friday's card, especially the early races.

Good luck!

Race 1: 6 Coupon Lady- Goes for six in a row, seven of nine & four straight at this level; 1 Eradikate- Rail helps in a group that is tougher than $400PS; 2 Royal Cam Osborne- Tough trip in last, but she is much better than she was.

Race 2: 2 Notable Karen- Credible with AA, should be better with Wyatt; 5 Viking Mia- Looks for her fifth straight on the board finish; 4 Wild Nordic- Raced gamely despite constant pressure last start. Solid contender.

Race 3: 4 Admirals Diamond- Better draw help her in a relatively soft group for this class; 3 Saratoga’s Best- May be a bit above her best level; 2 What’s Your Fantasy- Moves back up and may be braver off the solid win.

Race 4: 2 Cinderella Blue- Gest fresh hands and a good trip here and value is the way to go in this group; 1 Shady Attack- Appears best on paper, but as I said, skipping the fave makes sense here; 4 Swift Samantha- Has been doing a bit more work each week and may sustain it here; 8 Hatsoff For Gracie- Change of scenery and class relief.

Race 5: 4 Jessies Band- Seems to always race well with Kurt in the bike; 7 Storms Never Last- Sharp for a hot driver, but post is a concern; 6 Doowrah Silver- Stalked these last time for a win. Can she do enough from out here?

Race 6: 5 Medoland Kendall- Reuniting with Kash gives her the call and I’m not Joshing; 4 Whoville- Has been racing well since the long break; 3 Precious Lass- Has been pretty good when racing in this class.

Race 7: 2 Hillcrest Crystal- First time Swartz has been very good and I don’t like the one Wyatt chose; 6 Magical Delight- Too many issues for me to put her on top; 3 Mcmerry Again- Will e better with this draw and a start under her harness; 5 You Never Let Go- Figures if she can get the top against these.

Race 8: 4 Sunrise Sunset- Closed well to just miss with the drop to this level; 2 Fantastic Fran- The Swartz may be with her tonight; 1 Lady Abba- Second start back and me better from the rail.

Race 9: 9 Vivacious Raider- Closed well last time & gets fresh hands here; 3 Game Danica- A serious of bad posts has hampered her, one last chance here; 7 Winning Yankee- Does good work if she can overcome the post here.

Race 10: 1 Dreamfair Annie- Got tired cutting it off a sick scratch, should be tighter tonight; 4 Moira’s Intended- Has leveled off, but has won twice as many races as any other in the race in ’11; 2 Theprincessdeals- Was credible in her return to Northfield and now draws well; 3 Mach N Cookies- Racing well and draws well for John G.

Race 11: 4 Princessoftheball- Another chance after a costly break; 2 Broadway Petera- Needs the lead and she should be pretty good against these; 8 Gadjet- Swartz’s choice over #6 has a ton of back class.

Race 12: 2 Soaring Cloud- Has been closing very well lately and just missed last time; 1 Cooby N- Drops to the level of her last win and gets the rail; 3 Bullys Joni- Third back and was good here last year.

Race 13: 2 She’sa Town Girl- The first time Swartz angle should pick her up; 7 Gram of Gold- Not sure she will try as hard from out here, especially if she doesn’t make the top; 1 Better Hustle- Rail helps her considerably; 5 My Sweet Lorelei- Has had previous success with Josh driving and we may see a form reversal tonight.

Wednesday 7/27

2011-07-25T08:24:00.000-07:00

Two logical Pick 5 singles tonight- Pray To Me as an ETE class-dropper and Vibrato, so you can go three deep in the other three legs and keep it under $30!

The $10,000 Guaranteed Pool is the Pick 4 on races 8-11 with a 14% takeout.

The play 3569/23/234/36=$48

Analysis:
Race 8: Is wide open. I was tempted to single Pacificam in race 11 so I could go all or close to it.
Race 9: 3)Western Jack is the logical choice. 2) Blissful Court has speed and will add value if he by some miracle hangs on
Race 10: 2)Lucca's Revenge will get crushed at the windows. Last week's break, off the claim, is a big concern. So I am also using 3)Sj's Manawa Sam who is exceptional right now and 4) Date Worthy who is very streaky and had no chance last time.
Race 11: 3)Pacificam looked very good last start, but gets a different driver here. 6) Fueled N Waiting appears to be furthest inside of the higher money earners.

Here are the rest of the picks. Good luck.

Race 1: 6 Going Hollywood- NW1L8 is on a 3rd back angle and gets a slight call; 2 Medoland Jesse- Barn change and JD has experience with the Medolands; 1 R U A Chip- Will be on the point from the rail.

Race 2: 3 Powerful Cam- The kind of race where I‘d rather not pick the favorite, but limited options here; 6 Robin Dontget- Showed a bit two back; 7 VP Hot Rod- Does moderate work most of the time. A maybe.

Race 3: 5 Pray To Me- Eligible-at-time-of-entry for class relief off a win; 4 Seaworthy- Classy veteran needs to do more at this lower level; 1 Lost Photo- Should be well place early.

Race 4: 2 Free Dreams- Just a hunch off a barn change and 1st tag; 3 Vr Rocky Top- Tough trip in move up to this level; 6 Lucky Rockn Horse- Good Q, looked good on Maryland Fair circuit for two days in ‘2010; 8 Wolf Creek Dasher- Closed willingly. Green and still improving, but the snowman hurts.

Race 5: 1 Vibrato- Beat these comfortably last time and should roll; 5 Jh Action- Raced well in recent Sugg start; 7 Cummingsandgoings- Very consistent, but needs to do more to move up the ticket.

Race 6: 4 Cb Attack- Big effort in last and now gets the 3rd start back angle; 2 Liltycantbedenied- usually hangs around and must be considered; 6 Champagne Bliss- Only one with a win in last six.

Race 7: 9 Cause To Smile- Road trouble last time, but raced well in prior starts; 3 Sparkle Tina- Fits well with trainer driving and that’s no Loy; 1 Northern Haze- Has improved with Lasix and the rail won’t hurt; 5 Classy Rocket- Good trip and slow back half in the qualifier, a complete unknown quantity.

Race 8: 3 Northmedo Hooray- Drops to the level of last win and raved well against better; 6 Red Raider- Has been facing better at the Hamburg Fairgrounds; 9 High Gear Speed- Always competes at this class.

Race 9: 3 Western Jack- NW1L8 has been racing a bit better lately; 2 Blissful Court- Needs a breather, but may be cutting this mile and adds value; 4 I’ve Got Life- Always hangs around, a must use in exotics.

Race 10: 3 SJ’s Manawa Sam- Very good draw neutralizes the move up in class; 4 Date Worthy- No chance from the far outside in her last; 2 Lucca’s Revenge- The break last week is my biggest concern; 1 Freedom Hall- Needs the front to be a contender.

Race 11: 3 Pacificam- Not the horse he once was, but can handle these; 6 Fueled N Waiting- Was solid in return off the scratch & faces somewhat softer; 7 Up Front Northern- Killer break last time, another chance.

Race 12: 4 Jeremy’s Chaser- Racing well & on the verge of the breakthrough; 2 He’s All Art- Easier time getting the top here if he wants it; 1 Up Front Carl- Break last time cost him, was racing well before that.

Race 13: 6 Tally Ho Don- Racing well in a late start to his 2011 campaign; 4 Zeus’s Spirit- Seems to like the Route Eight oval; 5 Hope To Finish- Just a hunch he’ll be better with a start under his belt; 8 Shannon’s Boy Scout- Upward form cycle, downward post-draw cycle.

Monday, recovery day

2011-07-23T07:32:00.000-07:00

Posting this in the midst of a weekend of 14 soccer matches, and hosting the Battle of Lake. Things are starting to get busy with the start of the high school soccer season one week from Monday, but I will be posting picks on nearly every card throughout the fall.

There is a $10k Guaranteed Pick 4 on races 8-11, with a 14% takeout.

My play is 2/1389/67/1367= $32
and 27/13/67/67= $16

Race 8: 2) Pure Fantasy is a logical single, but 7)Heath Barkley intrigues me after an aggressive trip at Hilliard against Mypanmar, a winner of $1.5 million career, who was chasing the $750 purse.

Race 9: 3)Abby is stepping up but is very green and should go forward. 1) Candy J has speed and the rail really helps her. They opened up the race for 8)He Cantab You, but the post hurts him and 9)Danny-o can pop at any time.

Race 10:7)Man I'm Good has been just that and wins easily if he avoids road trouble. 6) Firm Jet shows ability and may finish better 2nd time Noble.

Race 11: 3)Angelo Kosmos- Classy old guy has done everything but win lately. 1) Allaince Hall is wildly inconsistent but must be used and 7)Trytopass Sam is streaky and may be in an upward cycle. 6)Go Merrily Along intrigues me-- usually does good work and seems to fit with these. Could add some value.

Here are the rest of the picks. Good luck:

Race 1: 5 Bingo Queen- “B-1” her qualifier and could be anything; 1 Oh Justice- Always does work and frosh has just three starts, so can improve; 6 Ruba Dub Dub- Pa. invader gets Robin in the tub.
Race 2: 3 Snooz Attack- Shows good results with Noble & could return to form; 1 Date Night K- Has been facing better, but still risky with Choppy; 5 Supreme Ruler- Shows intermittent work since the lame scratch, must sustain it.
Race 3: 8 Spiker- A bit risky from the snowman, but seemed much better with straps; 7 Pocketbooktreasure- Good effort last time, maybe after some half-mile track adjustments? 1 Kaptain G- Maybe he will race better than he spells.
Race 4: 1That’ll Work- Not that impressive, but Noble chose over 5, 8 and 9. That’s enough for me; 7 Townline Powerful- Big barn change off the absolute bottom win; 4 Currently Flying- Has not really gone forward for his new barn; 3 Mcfriendly- Needs to be used off the wings and he should show enough interest to contend.
Race 5: 3 Upfront Jesse- Well-connected, but comes to a half from a 5/8 off a break; 6 Sams Yankee- Has never missed the board in his short career; 2 Little Treasures- Seems to be improving with each start.
Race 6: 5 Call Me Merkle- Drops to the level of his last win and Josh has had success with him in the past; 1 S F Spiderman- Has been more successful so far than Turn Off The Dark; 3 Done It All- Porkchop gets class relief.
Race 7: 6 Ridge Park- Well-bred and lightly raced, he could be a good one; 4 Perfekjenlmnkalfas- Where has he been since the 5/24 qually? 1 Fantacular- Tactical speed and shows moderate work, rail helps; 2 Right On Target- First decent draw in this class, may add value to the super.

Race 8: 2 Pure Fantasy- NW1L8 just missed last time as the fave, another chance; 7 Heath Barkley- Nothing like dropping in a $750 fair race and facing a winner of $1.5 million; 4 Lima Jag- Should be a little closer early.

Race 9: 1 Candy J- Should be pretty sweet from the rail; 3 Abby- Stalked in last, may go down the road here; 8 He Cantab You- And he don’t want nobody else. Did dominant fair win awaken him? They opened up the class for him.

Race 10: 7 Man I’m Good- Rapidly improving and may be able to overcome the poor draw with Aaron; 6 Firm Jet- Raced well for Noble last time; 5 Israeli Hall- Just call him “heikhal,” which is Hebrew for hall.

Race 11: 3 Angelo Kosmos- Has a ton of back class and is in pretty decent form right now; 1 Alliance Hall- Always a bit spotty, but could go down the road here; 6 Go Merrily Along- Another chance after a couple flat efforts.

Race 12: 5 Sky Strikes- Was very impressive in the win on Monday; 2 On The Shady Side- Gest class relief and an improved draw; 3 Western Empire- Ducett calls on a catch-driver, could surprise.

Race 13: 4 Ge’s Gilmour- Gets class relief after a good return for owner-driver Merriman; 2 Westedge Matt- Always gives effort and must be considered with best draw in almost two months; 3 Mac Only Bill- Has really been gutted by his recent trips; 7 Nicky Hanover N- inconsistent, but is in very soft, so we will take a chance.

Battle of Lake Erie Card with a #10K Guaranteed pick 4

2011-07-21T11:48:00.000-07:00

Unfortunately we had some horsemen chicken out at the thought of facing the three millionaires in this year's Battle. With just six entrants, it made little sense to add a superfecta, so instead, the Battle, which wraps the Pick 4, will be part pf a Guaranteed Pick 4, and as always, the takeout is just 14%.

My play: 1345/9/2459/125

Analysis:

Race 8: It;s really wide open and their are question marks on both Millner-trainees (1)Australian Stock and 5)Benn's Thunder). 3)Celebrity Wonder, my top choice, gets Anthony MacDonald for absent Robin Miller, and 4)Mom's Looker fits with his best.

Race 9: Going with a risky single in 9)Kb's On My Toes, but i just don't see any other horse that is legit at this level. It may come back to bite me.

Race 10: Another very competitive bunch. Could easily have hit all here if I had the budget or the guts to just go three deep in the first leg.

Race 11: Using the Big Three in the Battle. I love looking for a price, but these three are head and shoulders above the rest.

Here is the rest of the card. See you there!

Race 1: 1 Zakman- Likes the rail and A. MacDonald has 1800+ wins. It’s not like he’s bloody Martin Smith from Croydon; 3 Mattonthechooch- Reunited with Noble; 5 Dax Hanover- Has done good work locally at this level.

Race 2: 6 Anastasia Wildfire- Stahl choosing off the Sherman-trainee is dog bites man, it’s news; 4 Can’t Fence Me In- Recovered from a mistake to beat similar; 9 El Cortez- Gets A Mac, but second tier is a concern for me.

Race 3: 3 Colossal Cruiser- Moves up off a “wow” win and now gets Noble; 4 Rapid Pursuit- Should be good with Goodell as he looks for five in a row; 1 Pw Tootsie- Races well from good posts and the rail is as good as it gets.

Race 4: 1 Cappucino Blaze- Has done good work, but been victimized by trips lately, value play; 9 Egotistic Pro- NW1L8 is in an upward form cycle; 6 Polo Joe- Has some back class and is improving after a rough start to 2011; 2 Moonsailer- First decent post recently, needs to get away well and finish strong;.

Race 5: 7 Delivered Rules- Just keeps rolling along in an attempt to defend his HOTY title; 4 I Know Your Lookin- Very consistent, but hasn’t beat the choice lately; 3 Red River B- Has been solid since shipping in from Scranton.

Race 6: 1 Lrs Mamas Boy- Seems to be best of these, especially from the rail; 5 Magnificent Gift- Always contends, but it’s been awhile since he won; 8 Gold Fever- Drawing the snowman may be a crushing blow.

Race 7: 2 Bodandy Andy- Lukewarm choice which may change pending the tote-board; 6 Scooters Clan- Dismiss at your own risk; 7 Here’s Hooter- Raced well against better last time the Swartz was with him; 9 Depravedhedonist- Always tries, but at ten not the same animal that he was.

Race 8: 3 Celebrity Wonder- Fresh set of hands for a trotter who always puts in solid efforts; 5 Benn’s Thunder- Noble had his choice of Millner-trainees; 1 Australian Stock- Has been inconsistent on this racetrack, chancy pick.

Race 9: 9 Kb’s On My Toes- Well, at least he should be tight after last week; 7 Liftoff Bayama- Seems to race well with catch-drivers and gets the top dog here; 2 Christmas Photo K- Good draw, second time Lasix and a big maybe.

Race 10: 6 Go Cowboy Go- Goodell’s choice over #4, so I will agree; 4 The Long Goodbye- We have a Matt Kakaley sighting & he jumped off the #5 when Eric chose the #6; 2 Vince The Man- was very good here previously.

Race 11: $100,000 Battle of Lake Erie: 5 Giddy Up Lucky- Benefits from the short field and should get clear sailing, hoping the stretch is long enough; 2 Hypnotic Blue Chip- The defending champ gets a perfect 2-hole trip behind the ’09 champ; 1 Foiled Again- Great horse, but he hasn’t won in two months & he should be showing more.

Race 12: 3 Soul Redeemer- Class showed at the bottom, he may handle the triple-class jump; 5 Cambest In Motion- Racing well off two straight wins,; 4 Thisonesforjunior- Moves up and looks for 3 in a row, at a price.

Race 13: 1 Mainline Hall- Gets a great draw and the track’s leading driver; 2 Museum Piece- Moves up in exceptional form, a call even with Wyatt choosing off; 4 Big Valley- Good enough to get a minor piece of this one; 9 Blue Time Overdue- Ran into traffic trouble dropping down and may again from the second tier

Friday- Battle of Lake Erie "eve"

2011-07-20T12:26:00.001-07:00

A good card with some value potential. I will be coaching two teams the Adidas National Showcase, but will be at the track for Battle Night. BTW- Pick 4 Saturday, ending with the Battle, has a $10K Guarantee. I will have that play and my Battle night picks posted tomorrow.

Here is the Friday analysis. Good luck.

Race 1: 4 M A Maria- Best draw in forever and showed signs of waking up in last; 3 Cinderella Blue- One move mare needs to make it at the right time; 7 All Over Now- Just a hunch the Swartz will be with her.

Race 2: 3 Pray To Me- Has shown improvement lately and could surprise; 4 Wild Nordic- Probably the nest with her best, but we just don’t always see the effort; 5 Viking Mia- Always close in, but not winning with frequency.

Race 3: 4 Karrydale Charm- I’m a fan, but she has been awful lately, hopeful pick; 6 Ursula K- May keep going forward second time D. Harvey; 5 Better Hustle- No chance with a bad draw last time, consider.

Race 4: 9 Lima Adore- Drops to the level of her last win and has done some work against better; 3 Hawthorne Maria- Usually does work, Maybe she will sustain it this time; 7 Moira’s Intended- Wyatt’s choice over #2 and #5 should be considered here; 5 Hillcrest Crystal- Gets fresh hands after two improved efforts.

Race 5: 4 Gadjet- Classy mare closed well in last & is due; 1 What’s Your Fantasy- Gets class relief & has shown speed when drawing inside; 3 Drop Of Nutmeg- The fastest of 14 siblings, 13 of them with marks. Worth noting.

Race 6: 3 Paint Tina- She gets a lukewarm call here, but if odds are short, I am off her; 4 Paris H- NW1L8 gets some class relief; 6 Silky Sailor- Form is improving and she has always been streaky.

Race 7: 3 Jimi’s Little Wing- I think she handles the move up as sharp as she is; 5 Boradway Petera- was just in too tough last time, better tonight; 7 Prioncessoftheball- Another one who is racing well, but the draw punishes her; 1 Jenabell- Should get a perfect trip from her and that may be just what she needs.

Race 8: 1 Fantastic Fran- Gets the call with this draw, but she’s no lock; 2 Doowrah Silver- Has a solid close when she fires; 6 Cooby N- Tough trip last time, but she was gamer than the line shows.

Race 9: 4 Icu Roller- Third back and doing decent work since; 2 Whoville- Has drawn as badly as you can all year, so far, not tonight; 3 My Sweet Lorelei- The draw makes her a contender

Race 10: 9 Eradikate- Nice sophomore filly can and should still go forward; 4 Royal Cam Osborne- Looks like she finally figured how to be a race horse; 3 Be Bop Beauty- Racing well, but Swartz chose to the 4; 7 Admirals’ Diamond- May be the best of these, but the outside draw hurts her.

Race 11: 3 Storms Never Last- Has been very sharp of late and is the solid play here; 2 Emma Rose Ben- Class and post relief may make up for her poor current form; 1 Jessies Band- Only a factor due to the rail.

Race 12: 5 Game Danica- Double class dropper should handle these easily; 1 Alysaa Blue- Racing well and now gets the best draw; 7 On The Money- Class relief means she’ll be in the money despite the bad draw.

Race 13: 9 Grace Of Hearts- Just a hunch, she at least tried last time; 7 Stox Up Bluegrass- May still have too far to come in this one; 2 Soaring Cloud- Just not convinced she can win at this level; 1 Dreamfair Frannie- The sick scratch worries me, even though she missed just one start. The rail could mean easy trip for a decent result.

Wild Wednesday

2011-07-18T09:32:00.000-07:00

Lots of youngsters here who can step up any time. An interesting night of racing coming up.
Reminder, I am hosting Battle night 7/23 from the winners circle. With two teams playing at the Adidas National Showcase that weekend, I will probably sunburned and thirsty, but I look forward to all of you stopping by and saying hello.

There is a $10K Guaranteed Pick 4 with a 14% takeout on races 8-11. My play is

12345/3/257/26=$30 and
12345/236/5/2= $15. A total of $45

Analysis

Race 8: A wide open affair. 'nuff said.

Race 9: If 3)Tieler Bea Hotspur races back to 7/13, this one is over. But 2) Doowrah's Deal and 6) Jeremy's Chaser are stalkers who can pick up the pieces if he falters, and they add value.

Race 10: 5) Lucca's Revenge changes barns as often as some horsemen changes significant others. 2)Llc has been sharp versus lesser and Greeno brings in 7)Blueridge Tornado. He usually ships 'em ready.

Race 11: Very tempted to single 2)Samcin, but Jl Nate The Great is just as fast, but against lesser. he can't be dismissed.

Here is the rest of the card. Good luck.

Race 1: 1 R U A Chip- Won this class last time & they opened it up for him. And he draws the rail; 6 Gate Keeper- The Falcon always keeps him close; 7 Going Hollywood- Fresh, back class & raced well in return.

Race 2: 1 Melboy- Showed a moderate close against better in local debut; 2 Tally Ho Don- Very consistent & relatively fresh; 3 Auto Pilot- Does work doesn’t sustain it, but we’ll go with the Lawrence Welk numbers.

Race 3: 9 Thirtytofinalscore- No idea how good he can be, but he’s unbeaten and worth a shot; 2 Cummingsandgoings- He’s been consistently on the ticket and draws well; Silent Star- Best of the rest.

Race 4: 1 Custers Last Stand- Well-connected and impressive so far; 7 Heavenly Deo- Freshman is improving and still has upside; 6 Cause To Smile- Has impressed since return; 4 Northern Haze- Looked a bit better with Lasix last week and may keep going forward.

Race 5: 4 Rose Run Luther- I’ve always liked him and he seems to be maturing, despite no recent wins; 5 Whatsupwiththat- Impressive win from the snowman in last; 9 Pathway Dot Com- faces far softer tonight.

Race 6: 1 Hickory Hunter- The good draw really helped last time, a better one tonight; 4 Zeus’s Spirit- A wake-up call last time, but not a 2-1 wakeup call; 6 Winsmith Delight- ETE off a perfect trip last time.

Race 7: 2 Wolf Creek Dasher- Gets fresh hands and a good draw. Scoreboard; 9 Desired Entry- He’s also undefeated lifetime, but 2nd tier hurts; 3 Rods Howard- Tough time against better in last; 5 Tic Tic Tic Boom- Looked like a different animal cutting it out, even though he tired late.

Race 8: 1 Lookslikefire- Faces much softer and gets a solid trot driver from the rail; 3 Legacy Chip- This class dropper is always close up early; 2 Rain- Gets another chance after the breaking issue.

Race 9: 3 Tieler Bea Hotspur- Has always been streaky and what a way to start a new one last start; 2 Doowrah’s Deal- Is usually hanging around; 6 Jeremy’s Chaser- Very consistent & must be used on ticket.

Race 10: 5 Lucca’s Revenge- Moves back up after another win and claim; 7 Blueridge Tornado- Greeno doesn’t bring ‘em if they are not ready; 8 One Day Wonder- Not sure how he’ll deal with the snowman, but he’s an honest trotter; 2 Llc- Triple class jump for a very sharp trotter who has competed in the class before.

Race 11: 2 Samcin- Sharp as a tack and should handle the move up; 6 Jl Nate The Great- Also very sharp, but was doing it against lesser; 1 Yankeedoodledandee- Not sure the rail helps, but he figures.

Race 12: 4 I’ve Got Life- Finally breaks through against a pretty hapless group; 1 Chocolate Crush- Has tactical speed & must be considered; 7 C And C Hoorah- Two wins this year is twice as many as any other.

Race 13: 3 Robin Dontget- Races evenly and may be forward enough late; 4 Pacificam- Showed improvement with Robin, needs to do still more; 6 Snooz Attack- Doesn’t always fire, but he must be considered; 2 Cappuccino Blaze- Costly break is an understatement for last start, but was good two back

Monday, July 18

2011-07-16T19:09:00.000-07:00

The crazy week continues as I post from Cincinnati. We missed the National Pick 4, going 3 of 4, which is disappointing, but I made a decision to leave off the Yonkers inside horses, based on their form, knowing it could bite me in the behind. Oh well.

Here are Monday's $10K Pick 4 picks and plays. Trying something different here. Sorry, no time for in-depth analysis.

128/45/26/4= $12
1/145/26/24= $12
12/5/269/24= $12
12/45/2/124= $12

Hoping to hit this one (chalky) multiple times.

Here are the rest of the picks:

Race 1: 4 Cinder Sierra- Faces a softer group on paper and may lose her maiden tag tonight; 5 Montmarte Hall- Always hangs around, but needs to do more; 3 Little Treasures- Overcame the shuffle job last time. Consider.

Race 2: 3 Abby- May be better than normal based on her lines; 7 Oh Justice- Raced well in career debut, gets a-nother chance; 4 We Belong Together- Looks good on paper, but driver hasn’t won since 1980, a Gisseresque stat.

Race 3: 6 Ridge Park- Moved up to face these in last & raced well from outside; 7 Cruisin The Waves- Is actually sharper than my choice, but draw is a killer; 1 Thisonesforjunior- Very consistent & a rail, if he handles the move up.

Race 4: 3 Search The Falcon- Lukewarm choice in a (charitably) lukewarm group; 4 Coin Of The Realm- Four straight checks, only the top pick has more than two; 8 Inquisitive Me- First time Nobel may mean improvement; 1 Pure Fantasy- In a group like this, the rail can be huge.

Race 5: 5 Grandpa’s Jojoben- Improving and still very green; 8 El Cortez- Too many questions, especially from the snowman; 6 Little Lee- First time Aaron and Stahl choosing the Sherman horse means nothing.

Race 6: 4 Mr Fenton- Needed the 1st seasonal start & should easily handle these; 7 He Cantab You- Freshened, but may need to be a bit tighter; 1 Red Radar Gun- Myrick is always a threat from the rail & horse hasn’t seen it in ages.

Race 7: 1 Nf Native Lady- The Heit of expectation for a hot barn; 3 Sky Strikes- Aaron’s choice over the #9 has to mean something; 4 Ron Jeremy- Not what he once was and neither is the horse; 9 Hoosier Lion- Kaneoka may be on a roll after a second at The Meadows in a Lady’s Race.

Race 8: 1 Museum Piece- Racing well and they opened it up for him; 2 Ge’s Gilmour- The qualifiers have been impressive, but…; 8 Blue My Mind- Fits well in all ways but the post draw.

Race 9: 5 Firm Jet- Talk about a tough trip. Last time? Yikes; 4 Vr Rocky Top- Showed improvement last time and is a major player; 1 Man I’m Good- Moves up off a win, but Wyatt chose off to the #4.

Race 10: 2 Angelo Kosmos- Just needs to finish. Maybe he will. No Joshing; 6 Sj’s Manawa Sam- Has really turned things around lately; 9 Audit- Big-time class drop, but still unproven at this level; 5 Diehl’s Deal- Another chance at a level where he should be pretty good.

Race 11: 4 Bell Valley Diva- Henry Beachy to Dan Noble. What could I be thinking? 2 Suited n Booted- Coming off a lifetime best for the new barn; 1 Israeli Hall- Don’t dismiss from the rail.

Race 12: 6 Royal Sugar- Has issues, but they opened up the class for her and she was a nice mare; 4 Altesse- Looking for a Noble effort first time with Dan; 1 Shekinah Glory- Consider with class relief and the rail.

Race 13: 8 Westedge Matt- Big last panels may allow him to overcome the snowman; 1 At Daybreak- Does work, needs to time it properly; 5 Egotistic Pro- Showing signs of life lately; 6 Native Fate- Figures with his best.

Saturday 7/16 picks

2011-07-14T20:16:00.000-07:00

Packing up and getting ready to leave Vernon Downs. Had a poor night at the windows tonight (first night of live racing) but hit a $12 winner late to keep close to even.

BTW- Nest Saturday, I will be hosting the Battle of Lake Erie show (7/23) at Northfield. Stop by and say hello. Good Luck!

Race 1: 3 Can’t Fence Me In- Has been knocking at the door and may provide value; 7 Anastasia Wildfire- The likely favorite is not as effective from out here; 1 Possessive Power- Rail helps considerably.

Race 2: 2 Up Front Carl- Have to love the eligible-at-time-of-entry at the absolute bottom; 5 Happy Hylight- Has always been a tease, but maybe the drop will help; 1 Triggerhappyfellow- Needs to finish, but shows some speed.

Race 3: 6 Near The Limit- This ETE isn’t as sure, he actually moves up; 4 Christina Victory- Needs to show a bit more pop late; 1 Lady Rev- Hepner has done an outstanding job with this mare. Ignore at your own risk.

Race 4: 2 Cambest In Motion- Let’s see if he builds on an impressive win at the bottom; 1 Heez Ruthless N- Has two wins in the last five and arguably beat better in last; 4 Currently Flying- Another chance in the new barn; 5 Worries Stay Small- Class relief helps, but he is not showing quite the pop we are used to.

Race 5: 6 Big Valley- Another chance after a tough trip in last. Needs to leave aggressively; 1 Depravedhedonist- Gets the rail after a string of generally awful posts; 5 Bodandy Andy- The sick scratch is a major concern.

Race 6: 4 Intrepid Orion- Hunts for his third straight life mark; 2 Fox Valley Flyby- A bit above his best level; 5 Fantasy Character- Showing signs of life recently.

Race 7: 1 Ata Ata- First time Charlino and the rail get him to the winners circle; 2 Goodnite Wilbur- Needs to finish stronger; 4 Kb’s On My Toes- Another one who needs stronger final 16ths; 9 Fox Valley Sly- Should get the perfect trip to wrap up this super.

Race 8: 4 Rapid Pursuit- Razor sharp and gets the eligible-at-time-of-entry angle; 6 Tooter Lane- Repeats last week’s exacta; 2 Raps A Million- Showing signs of life the last couple of starts, consider.

Race 9: 6 Delivered Rules- It’s not like he raced bad in the Buffalo9 Open; 2 I Know Your Lookin- Lost to my choice in his last start; 1 Gordieisanartist- Do not ignore, especially from the rail.

Race 10: 2 Go Cowboy Go-Ultra-consistent pacer gets the call in a competitive field; 1 Left’em Standing- Impressed last time with the good draw; 3 Mattonthechooch- Tough trip last time, give him another chance; 8 Pw Tootsie- Racing well, but the snowman may do him in.

Race 11: 1 Gold Fever- Looks for three-in-a-row with Aaron and the rail; 4 Magnificent Gift- Always right there, but no recent”1s” on the card; 6 sharp Shuttle- Draws bestr of the fours and has been facing much better.

Race 12: 5 Soul Redeemer- Jus a hunch he is sitting on a big effort; 3 Western Jack- The trip o Telegraph Rd seems to have awakened him; 1 Gyraider- Gets the rail and class relief.

Race 13: 5 Samcin- The continuing theme of ETE for this one; 2 Laughing Is An Art- Best draw in ages and some back class; 4 Cunning Design- Third back angle and showed improvement in the 2nd start; 9 Christmas Photo K- Gets Lasix and seemd to be improving.

Friday Northfield Picks AND the National Pick Four

2011-07-13T17:44:00.000-07:00

I hope to be back from a week at Vernon Downs in time to play the National Pick Four. I am tempted to go three deep in the Yonkers race, or four deep in the Meadowlands leg, but I hit it for $1800+ on a $48 ticket, so let's try again. Good Luck!

The Play: 5-8-10/1-2-5-7/5-7/5-6= $48

Leg A (Meadowlands Race 8): A tough race with a lot of question marks. My top pick is #10 Don’t Know Chip who shows consistent quality closes. #5 In Focus gets trotting hopples and easily won a qualifier with the straps. An unknown quantity who could improve. And #8 A Gentleman gets the first time David Miller angle and adds value. That worked last year, anyhow.

Leg B (Northfield Race 8): A wide open affair, but #2)Mindy Love Brown is sharp and could win despite the move up. #1 Getherdone Sue is a Jeckyll and Hyde type who wins for fun if she duplicates her June 3 race, but hasn’t been able to lately. #5 Sarastar moves into a super-sharp barn and can’t be ignored and #7 Saratoga’s Best always gives effort, but the post hurts her.

Leg C (Yonkers Race 9): I just don’t see any inside horses contending, the two assigned outside may not be able to handle that punishment. Let’s put T Js Mr Lavec who only lost last week because he was assigned post eight. #7 Looking Hanover won from the same post last week, so he factors in, too.

Leg D (Maywood Park Race 6): Maywood is a speed-crazy track, but the inside horses show little of late. #6 Notjustaprettyface moved to the half-mile oval last time and got roughed up, but can race from behind and should be solid. #5 Allamerican Virgin gets results with Carpenter driving and has some tactical speed. He could trip out.

Here is the Northfield card:

Race 1: 4 Here I Glow- Has shown some decent results and gets the call is a soft group; 6 Abba Abra- Third start back angle and showed a little last time; 5 Jarmoto- Was done in by the trip in last, tonight she gets Stahl back.

Race 2: 5 Deena- Got roughed up against slightly better, back to her winning ways here; 4 Jessies Band- Shows good lines when drawing well. She does here; 2 Sara’s Lil Sis- Has been streaky & may have started one last week.

Race 3: 6 Urusla K- Showed improvement with fresh hands and gets fresher hands here; 1 I Am A Laag- Shows little, but from the rail could save ground to compete; 3 Myoneandonly- Gets a good draw, but also a P driver.

Race 4: 3 Hillcrest Crystal- Wildly inconsistent, but deserves a look against this group (& after checking board for value); 2 Stonebridge Beauty- Has drawn miserably of late & has still managed some results; 6 Towner’s Big Sadie- Closes now and then; 9 Jjs Request- Always hangs around and needn’t do much to be on this super.

Race 5: 1 You Never Let Go- Was 3rd against slightly better last time she but raced here; 2 All Over Now- Shows the ability to hang around with a good draw; 6 Swift Samantha- Always does work, rarely sustains it, though.

Race 6: 4 Paint Tina- Drop to this class should allow her to get it done; 1 Precious Lass- Shows occasional speed and the rail should be huge; 5 Medoland Kendall- The sick scratch is the big concern.

Race 7: 1 Dream Misty- Usually faces better, drop last week was negated by the snowman; 2 Electric Presence- Was fried by the Independence Day trip at Hoosier; 6 Moira’s Intended- Always hangs around, but moves back up; 9 Game Danica- Capable of closing, but doesn’t always fire.

Race 8: 2 Mindy Love Brown- She heads up Northfield’s leg of the National Pick Four; 1 Getherdone Sue- Major player if she can duplicate the win four back; 5 Sarastar- Moves into the hottest barn at the track right now.

Race 9: 6 Gadjet- She won’t Stahl with Ryan tonight; 1 Jimi’s Little Wing- Competes with the $4 claimers, who are better than these; 5 Allamerican Dora- Shows enough results to put on the bottom of the ticket.

Race 10: 5 Coupon Lady- Hottest mare on the grounds right now; 4 Be Bop Beauty- Moves up yet again, but having a solid campaign; 2 Princessoftheball- Consistent and she gets a good draw. Could upset if not for the bearcat; 3 Sunrise Sunset- Has been facing better, this is a better spot for her.

Race 11: 5 Hula Lu- Lukewarm call in what may be the night’s toughest race to ‘cap; 9 Fantastic Fran- Does the win at $600 mean a return to ’10 form? 6 Soaring Cloud- Moves up but is in a positive form cycle.

Race 12: 3 Silky Sailor- Winless this year, but she has a 20% lifetime strike rate; 1 Ann’s Win’n Design- Has at least tactical speed, so the rail helps; 4 Winsmith Delight- Just a hunch.

Race 13: 1 Get Ready To Rumba- Gets her best draw in a long time; 9 Scandalous- From a good barn and Kurt chose over #2; 2 Hawthorne Maria- Looks decent on paper, but loses Sugg; 5 Holdzmfromfloppin- Should compete at this level, but is as consistent as Michelle Bachman.

Wednesday's wild winners (7/13)

2011-07-11T08:06:00.000-07:00

It's a crazy week, so I may miss a few posts this week, as I did w/Saturday's card. Sorry. We did hit 15 winners on the weekend, which isn't bad. I was also reminded that sheet metal is easily repaired while on a family reunion with my wife's family. She had gone to pick up our daughter and was involved in an accident. Everyone is OK, except the car, which suffered a lot of damage. Her family was shocked at how calm and relaxed I was, considering I am a pretty tempermental, cranky old SOB. But it's simple. Becki and Dana were not hurt. And the car is being repaired. So, other than hundreds of poker chips being thrown throughout the vehicle, it's all good. As soon as the damaged wheel gets replaced, I am off to Vernon Downs for an HHYF Youth Camp for as week. I have some time free in the evenings and hope to get all the picks done.
I return Friday night and will post Monday, and then leave first thing Saturday for a soccer tourney in Cinci. Then things calm down a bit.

Wednesday has a $10,000 Guaranteed Pick 4 on races 8-11, with a 14% takeout.

The play-124/456/145/1= $27
AND 12/456/145/5= $18. Total play $45

Analysis;
Race 8: A wide open affair and if I had the guts to really single Master Wheels in the 11th, i would go deeper. 2) Currently Flying moves to a barn that is lights out with first starters, 1) Step by Step gets class relief and 5) Cousin Mikey popped a big mile two back.
Race 9: 6) Angelo Kosmos has not had a lot of pop, but has contended consistently and gets Noble here. 4) Lucca's Revenge gets a change of scenery and he usually responds to that. 5) Go Merrily Along has actually been more competitive than the top pick, but seems a step or two slower.
Race 10: 1) Rapid Pursuit is eligible at time of entry off two straight wins. He is sharp, but so is 4)Yankeedoodledandee with underrated Daren Harvey. 5)Fancy Schmansy is just a better animal, but he is sooooo inconsistent.
Race 11: Great classification work by McKirgan on 1)Master Wheels. He gets ETE and class relief after beating far better Saturday. J.D. Wengerd's trainee, Near The Limit also gets ETE, but has not faced quite as tough and he has historically had a bit of trouble trotting the turns here.

Here are the rest of the picks. Good luck.

Race 1: 3 Hogue’s Rockie- Lukewarm call, but if memory serves, last year’s win was at this level; 2 He Cantab You- Freshened and looked good in the qually; 1 Jo- Jeckyll & Hyde trotter could be anything here.

Race 2: 1 Power Stroke Chip- Getting it together after missing his 4-year-old campaign; 6 Jazzy’s Boy- Seems to be in an upward form cycle; 5 Cummingsandgoings- I like mares who close willingly.

Race 3: 2 Medoland Jesse- Has been racing poorly from bad posts against better; 7 S F Spiderman- Has raced well for Noble in the past; 6 Gate Keeper- Very solid when racing at the bottom and should contend.

Race 4: 1 Thisonesforujunior- Has been competitive every start this year; 5 A Legend At Last- Has shown some ability and is just getting started; 6 Debonair Flair- Did close decently two back, but would like to see more work; 4 Vr Rocky Top- Raced well from the snowman in his return home.

Race 5: 1 Beware Of The Diva- Just missed with a solid closing effort in last; 2 Cause To Smile- Has done well since returning off 5-month break; 4 Kevin’s Lil Vixen- Fast following mile in OSS may not mean much.

Race 6: 9 Northmedo Hoo-ray- Seems to fit well in this one; 2 Oceana Hanover- Had no chance with the draw, even w/drop.12-1, I’d put her on top. She won’t be; 4 High Gear Speed- Gut says he improves here.

Race 7: 9 Jl Nate The Great- I love the eligible-at-time-of-entry angle; 2 Moon River Dell- Usually contend ast this level, but has been here a long time; 3 Shannons Boy Scout- Looked like his old self last race; 6 Ben’s Big Bird- Injury scratch is a concern, but didn’t miss a lot of time.

Race 8: 2 Currently Flying- First time Ehrhardt angle is huge even though Dan chose off; 1 Step By Step- Class relief and the rail; 5 Cousin Mikey- Seems to be improving, at least on paper.

Race 9: 6 Angelo Kosmos- Noble gives him the winning edge; 4 Lucca’s Revenge- Changes barns as often as Steinbrenner changed managers, but fits; 5 Go Merrily Along- Has done everything but win lately.

Race 10: 1 Rapid Pursuit- Had no problem moving up last week. Very sharp; 4 Yankeedoodledandee- In an upward form cycle; 5 Fancy Schmansy- Should really be better than he has shown; 8 Lil Dudes Mach Up- Also eligible-at-time-of-entry, but the snowman hurts.

Race 11: 1 Master Wheels- Very well-classified, ETE means class relief off a win; 5 Near The Limit- Same situation as McKirgan’s trotter, but overall resume not as good; Rain- Likes it here, but faces tough ones.

Race 12: 6 Triggerhappyfellow- Hoping for a return to bottom of the form form in drop to the bottom; 4 Ohio Star- Maybe the barn change helps. Maybe; 5 Cb Attack- Needed the last start & may be better fresh.

Race 13: 3 Tieler Bea Hotspur- Good draw, does work, gets Noble; 1 Little Big Man Vmw- Comes off two good efforts and gets the rail here; 9 C And C Hoorah- Dittos, but with the 2nd tier; 6 Tally Ho Don- Very consistent, but moves far enough outside to leave questions.

Monday Thoughts

2011-07-08T08:50:00.000-07:00

A tough card with some nice youngsters who could step up or who could disappoint. And we get a $10K guaranteed Pick 4 with a 14% takeout on races 8-11

The Play: 24569/245/123/1= $45

Race 8: Wide Open affair and would love to hit the all button here.
Race 9: 5) Ilooklikerudy has come up short his last few starts, buts is due. 2) Rose Run Freddie is always solid and draws well, while 4)Diehl's Deal has won more races than any other trotter at Northfield this year. He drops in poor form.
Race 10: 1) Goodnite Wilbur- I liked him last time and he always gives effort. 2)Rapid City beat better six back and takes a double drop, while 3) Guile's Boy moves up off a good win and they opened up the race for him.

Here are the rest of the picks. I hope to at least catch the end of the card from Vernon. Good Luck.

Race 1: 1 Magnaflo- Have to pick him due to the Sergio Corona factor; 9 Abby- Should keep improving in purses races; 2 Natural Sevens- Draws well and has done some work, just needs to learn to sustain it.

Race 2: 5 Master Lad Pro- NW1L8 gets a double class drop and has been competitive w/better; 9 Altesse- Should go forward with Noble driving; 2 Stock Boy Freddie- Current form poor, but draws well for the first time in a while.

Race 3: 2 Rose Run Nellie- Filly is still figuring it out but can win with a flat trip; 4 Powerful Spur- Improving with each start; 9 Rose Run Louie- Closed well in last start and may have more in the tank.

Race 4: 9 Star Drifter N- A hunch that he’ll benefit from a racing style change; 2 Museum Piece- As consistent as you could want, must use in exotics; 1 Search The Falcon- Has tactical speed and may cut this one; 6 Powerful Cam- Usually does a little work and has been caught in some fast miles for the class.

Race 5: 5 Cody Coy- Raced well in the OSS career debut; 3 Sams Yankee- A major player if he trots both laps; 1 Pocketbooktreasure- Arguably faced better at The Meadows.
Race 6: 4 Mr Fenton- Fresh horse gets the only driver whose UDRS is over The Mendoza Line and even then it depends on which interpretation you use; 3 Abc Flower- Maybe class relief will help; 2 Diva Two- Another class dropper who can contend with these.

Race 7: 9 Pure Fantasy- Gets Merriman and has previous local success; 3 Egotistic Pro- Twice-beaten fave since returning; 1 Mr Kite- Gets class relief and the rail; 2 Cambest In Motion- Draws well, drops and gets Noble.

Race 8: 9 Key Western- This is a tough group for the class, but getting Noble gives him the edge; 4 Native Fate- I picked this one to win until Noble chose off; 2 Chocolate Crush- Just too inconsistent to put higher on the ticket.

Race 9: 5 Ilooklikerudy- Has disappointed at times but looks the best here; 2 Rose Run Freddie- Should be solid from inside; 4 Diehl’s Deal- Winningest local trotter has leveled , but does get class relief and Noble.

Race 10: 1 Goodnite Wilbur- “Flew” late to get the last win, always tries; 9 Ccs Belief- Gets class relief after a game effort against three claimers; 3 Guiles Boy- Must consider if only because they opened up the race for him; 2 Rapid City- Gets class relief, dropping below the level of his last win.

Race 11: 1 Cruisn The Waves- Moves up off an eye-popping win; 6 Dm Ion- Always rolls late and his style is a perfect foil to the top pick’s style; 4 Scooter In Motion- Raced well coming off a sick scratch, will he bounce?

Race 12: 2 Suited N Booted- Moves to a hot barn and may go forward with Sugg driving; 5 Bell Valley Diva- Racing well and may be better value than the ML; 7 Bella Bionda- Draws poorly, but always gives good effort.

Race 13: 4 Eddie C Hanover- Three-year-old has more upside than the others; 5 Standin On a Beach- Gets his best local draw and Merriman; 2 Styler- Eaily beat lesser, but may have to battle early for the lead; 8 Ramember- Last start was impressive and this one is a hunch, since the trip may be similar.

Friday fillies and mares Favorites (mostly)

2011-07-06T09:01:00.000-07:00

Fridays are back to the (mostly) traditional Fillies and Mares and this looks to be the chalkiest card I have seen in a long time.
By the way, I will be on the road July 8-17. SHOULD be able to get the picks all posted, but some may go up at odd times, so don't panic.

Good luck!

Race 1: 3 Date Worthy- Picked up a win last time at this level and has generally been competitive with better; 2 Wild Nordic- Has gate speed and drops to the level of her last win; 4 Viking Mia- Improved dropping to this level last time.

Race 2: 3 Soaring Cloud- Closed well dropping to absolute bottom last time; 2 Silky Sailor- Could rebound from the rough seas of 2011; 4 Cinderella Blue- Should be better with a start under her belt and she did at least pull in return.

Race 3: 5 High Heels N Spurs- Has been ultra-consistent & gets pilot she knows; 4 Endless Vacation- Moves up, but gets another chance after a break; 1 Anastasia Wildfire- May need a start & a different post, but contend w/best.

Race 4: 1 Cooby N- Start four back says go to the front and roll; 4 I Love Being Right- Did good work dropping to this level last time; 5 Cruisin Delight- Her form is Sybil-like, Just depends which personality one shows up; 7 I Am Samsational- Has started doing some work of late and is the class of this field.

Race 5: 4 Swift Samantha- The Swartz was with her last time and she really woke up; 9 Karrydale Charm- Not sure she’s sharp enough to quarter-move, but may still trip out; 7 Beach Bunny- Decent Q and the time off may help.

Race 6: 2 Icu Roller- Good qualifier, good post and a fresh horse; 3 Fantastic Fran- Needs to sustain her work and gets 2nd best UDRS driver in the race; 6 Myoneandonly- May be the best of the NW1L8 horses.

Race 7: 5 Deena- Easily beat better last time, easy call; 2 Storms Never Last- Always hangs around and draws well, consider her; 4 Cosmetician- May have a tough time getting the lead; 9 Jimi’s Little Wing- May get a similar trip to last for John G.

Race 8: 3 Scandalous- The drop back down to NW$200PS may make her Sugg-cessful; 2 Royal Cam Osborne- Drops back to a level where she has competed well; 5 Makybe Diva- Class dropper needs to do more.

Race 9: 1 Lima Adore- Gets her best post draw in months and is a solid player; 2 Princessoftheball- Also draws well and seems to be at a competitive level; 5 Be Bop Beauty- Raced well when Wyatt got the call last time.

Race 10: 9 Shez Good Osborne- Massive class dropper is the best bet of the night, 2nd tier the only question; 4 Longlegacy- Can hang with these; 6 Gadjet- Inconsistent, but Robin seems to get along with her; 3 Admiral’s Diamond- Is the most consistent of these and has gate speed, but will be challenged throughout.

Race 11: 3 Coupon Lady- Sharpest mare at the track right now and she’s still not in the top class; 2 Misster Wilker- Sick scratch a question, has the class to beat these; 1 Darting Larkin- Needs an uneventful trip & rail may not help.

Race 12: 9 Winsmith Delight- Has done a bit of work against (arguably) better; 1 Lisa Chracter- Will be on the point and may drag my pick along; 5 Alyssa Blue- Improving with Rachel at the lines.

Race 13: 3 Sartoga’s Best- Always gives effort, just needs to do a bit more; 4 Holdzmfromfloppin- Third back angle and raced well in the second back; 1 Paint Tina- Has some speed, but doesn’t always sustain it; 7 Get Ready To Rhumba- Worth a chance at a price, not sure she overcomes the bad draw.

Wednesday- hoping to stay on a roll (and avoid a bagel)

2011-07-04T08:41:00.000-07:00

We didn't exactly crush Saturday's card, but 8 winners and all 13 winners mentioned on my tickets is pretty solid. I an wondering if the reduced Northfield schedule actually caused me to lose a bit of focus.

Wednesday features another $10K Guaranteed Pick 4 on Races 8-11 and the takeout is just 14%!

The play: 139/149/124/46= $54. I am a little over budget, but since I was under a couple times the last few weeks, deal with it (smiley face).

Race 8: Is wide open, but 9)Bella Bionda always gives effort, 3) Call Him Cruiser appears to be improving and 1) Scooter in Motion was solid, but the scratch gives cause for pause.
Race 9: 1)I've Got Life is the class of the field and the rail helps, but he does not always sustain his effort; 7) Dream Sunrise gets 1st time Noble and 4) Goodnite Wilbur has put in two very good recent efforts
Race 10: 4) Sleek Fish gets fresh hands and drops to the level of his last win, 1) Vilas Blue Chip gets class relief and 2) That'll Work changes barns
Race 11: If budget is an issue, singling Intrepid Orion, off a lifetime best with Noble driving, makes sense. But 6)Dm Ion is improving rapidly and can't be ignored.

Here is the entire card. Good luck!
Race 1: 5 Touch Of Chip- If this one trots he will win easily with Noble. Big if; 1 Danny-o- Has some tactical speed & the rail has to help him; 4 Here I Glow- Gets class relief but has shown little since the Q.

Race 2: 5 Man I’m Good- Good results and improves each start; 1 Thessaly- Not a fan, but has some speed and eventually will maintain it; 2 Game Maggie- Depneds on how she responds to the fresh hands.

Race 3: 3 Ilooklikerudy- Always gives effort and style fits well with this group; 7 Sj’s Manawa Sam- Drops back a bit and should be on the point for most of this; 2 Rain- Recent form is poor, but he likes this track.

Race 4: 4 Cruisin The Waves- Impressive winner in his last, should repeat; 6 Fantacular- His win was ten lengths slower than choice, speed doesn’t always matter, but… 8 Firm Jet- A trifecta of snowmen hurt his chances, but still solid; 5 Zhihong Pang- Will be on the ticket, but at 0-23 in ’11, it will be bottom of ticket.

Race 5: 1 Thisonesforjunior- Seems to be better after a winless 17-start 2K10; 3 Bells Cruiser- Showed improvement in last & the dam’s foals like Northfield; 7 Ridge Park- First time Noble and has been decent.

Race 6: 6 Super Rapper- Was much better in Noble debut and may break through; 2 Altesse- May have a chance if Daren puts her on the point; 1 Llc- Just 1-19 this year, but always on the board, must use from rail.

Race 7: 1 Mcfriendly- Always hangs around and gets as soft a group as he has seen in a while; 9 Hickory Hunter- May get a perfect trip behind my pick; 4 Search The Falcon- Another one who gets lots of checks, just not big ones; 2 In The Money- Just a hunch the change of scenery may help.

Race 8: 9 Bella Bionda- Solid performer is still learning and can go forward; 3 Call Him Cruiser- Does moderate work sometimes, consider; 1 Scooter In Motion- Would get the call if not for the missed time.

Race 9: 1 I’ve Got Life- If I keep picking him, he will win eventually; 7 Dream Sunrise- Only because Noble chose and even that may be an “account” choice; 4 Goodnite Wilbur- NW1L8 is in a positive form cycle.

Race 10: 4 Sleek Fish- Here, Noble chooses off D.J., again an “account” choice? 1 Vilas Blue Chip- Class dropper is 3rd back from the rail with fresh hands, many positives here; 2 That’ll Work- Moves back up off a barn change, taking a chance; 9 Monkey Off My Back- Dropped in with these last time & was just beat 1½.

Race 11: 4 Intrepid Orion- Noble steered this soph to a lifetime mark in his last; 1 Rounding Third- Dale pilots, which should help this squirrely one; 6 Dm Ion- Very consistent, but must do more with the move up.

Race 12: 9 Snooz Attack- Has gotten a little better with each local start; 3 Dynamite Dazzler- I know, I know, but she draws well; 1 Currently Flying- Likes being on the point and may be from the rail.

Race 13: 1 Triggerhappyfellow- The rail helps; 2 Big Black Jack- Should solid from the two-hole; 3 Mac Only Bill- Fresh horse draws well, but outside the top picks; 4 Guile’s Boy- Can easily be fourth with this draw.

Saturdays are back!!

2011-06-30T11:29:00.000-07:00

A pretty good card for the return of Saturday racing. We have been finding some decent priced horses but not using them properly, and when we hit favorites, we seem to be missing the tris and exactas. I need to heat it back up and maybe with Saturdays back, I will.

BTW- Northfield's Strategic Wagering for July will be the same as it has been- Monday and Wednesday Pick Fours, $10K Guarantee with a 14% takeout.

Here are the picks. Good luck.

Race 1: 1 Rose Run Margarita- Lukewarm call in a race where anything might happen; 9 Little Treasures- Has done moderate work now and then and can save ground; 2 Natural Sevens- Improving with every start, but enough?

Race 2: 7 Little Lee- Gets Aaron and may provide some value if he can overcome the outside; 5 Grandpa’s Jojobeni- Did no work following a fats mile; 1 Macao- Shows some competitive lines locally.

Race 3: 4 Sweetie Sue Cam- Gets class relief and may pull the upset; 5 Fantastic Fran- Third back and gets Charlino, may return to form; 3 Matt-scoot-n-bunny- Hoping Triple G wakes this one up.

Race 4: 4 Heza Firecracker- NW1L8 has been improving and maybe ready for a win; 1 Blue Time Overdue-He certainly is and Wyatt chose over #2 & #5; 5 Lima Jag- Grinder fits here, but Wyatt chose off; 6 Standin On A Beach- Improved post may help him here.

Race 5: 2 Colossal Cruiser- Dominating win in last and gets the ETE tag; 1 Southview Don- The other NW1L8 has tactical speed & gets Charlino; 6 Key Western- Veteran can easily hang with these & do more than hang w/his best.

Race 6: 6 Rose Run Mac- Exceptionally sharp, other than the one break; 5 Spit Happens- Needed the last start off a sick scratch; 1 Angelo Kosmos- Tactical speed and the rail, but Aaron chose off, dropping him a bit on this ticket.

Race 7: 1 Rapid Pursuit- Class relief and the rail may get him his 2nd win of the year; 3 Ben’s Big Bird- tends t compete from good draws and he gets one here; 7 Museum Piece- Usually contends, but he is 0-18 this year; 5 Tieler Bea Hotspur- NW1L8 gets Grismore and has been victimized by some tough trips lately.

Race 8:3 Zipsnapndrop- Nearly beat these in last, how will he react to fresh hands? 9 Kb’s On My Toes- Class dropper gets Aaron, Dan C. chose off; 8 Fox Valley Flyby- May be best of these, but I don’t see a win from post 8,

Race 9: 3 Go Cowboy Go- Moves up in exceptional form, close to getting the Giss of Death as a best bet; 1 Panskrit- Also racing very well right now; 2 Stand N Shout- And so is he, which is why the #3 is not a best bet.

Race 10: 1 Caramel Dimpling- Should be close enough early to kick it in late; 9 Jenna’s Dream- Has been very consistent but may not get a great trip; 2 Eagle Jacob- Can be solid if dumpling provides cover; 7 Delivered Rules- The valid speed in the race must be considered.

Race 11: 2 Worries Stay Small- Has had success with Aaron before and woke up a little in last; 3 Sharp Shuttle- Has been inconsistent, but gets fresh hands; 8 Class Worker- Looking for value and Charlino will get him in the flow.

Race 12: 2 Mattonthechooch- Has done everything but win since the layoff; 9 Bodandy Andy- Not sure the 2nd tier is a great place for him; 3 Race Track Cruiser- Should get a decent trip and he can hang with these..

Race 13: 2 Wardog Hall- Snowman cost him all chance in his local debut, NW1L8 is solid in here; 9 Doowrah’s Deal- The other NW1L8 could trip out here; 4 Cousin Mikey- With the pedal to the metal, the Swartz may be with him; 1 At Daybreak- First time Charlino, the rail and class relief. Hmmm, why do I only have him fourth here?

Friday fillies and mares (mostly)

2011-06-29T11:52:00.001-07:00

This looks like a very playable card to me. Good luck!

Race 1: 1 Acoustic Hanover- Gets class relief and the rail off a career-best win; 5 Nora’s Dream T- Faces softer and may finish stronger at this level; 9 Viking Mia- Has back class and previous local success.

Race 2: 5 Back Home Again- Has shown some moderate work and may beat this soft group; 2 Cinderella Blue- Showed some pace in the Q and this is a good fresh horse class; 3 Vivacious Raider- Comes off a sick scratch.

Race 3: 4 High Heels N Spurs- May show more with Smitty in the bike; 1 Irwin- Does work most times. Irplace, tonight; 2 Hardrockenjessica- Good local win three back , needs a flat mile.

Race 4: 9 Get Ready To Rumba- Last start against better is not as bad as it looks; 1 Campside Angel- Lanny should get a pretty good trip here; 6 Moira’s Intended- Faces lesser and usually does moderate work; 4 Radiant Star- A bit inconsistent, but the drop back down may help her.

Race 5: 5 Lucca’s Revenge- Perhaps he will finish stronger with class relief; 6 Yesternite- Showed what she can do with a flat mile, will we get another? 2 Pathway Dot Com- Class relief and a good post may get him on the ticket.

Race 6: 3 Clarskville Jazz- Has done good work, needs to sustain it and get a good trip; 9 Silky Sailor- Showed signs of improvement at the absolute bottom; 6 Zim And Torre- Let’s see of fresh hands wake her back up.

Race 7: 3 Storms Never Last- Pretty consistent and gets a slight call in a well-matched group; 1 Deena- Moves up and has been racing better with Lasix; 2 Miss Port Foal Leo- Is also in a positive form cycle; 8 Emma Rose Ben- Snowman hurts, but she is dropping two classes and may overcome the outside.

Race 8: 6 One Day Wonder- Has been very solid & can beat these; 7 Rose Run Luther- Seems more controllable since the time off and must be considered; 5 Flowing James- Likely fave hasn’t made a nickel L/5; he’s vulnerable.

Race 9: 5 Coupon Lady- Sharp as a tack, catch me if you can girls; 7 Eradikate- starting to put it all together and may still improve; 2 Jenabell- May be a bit braver with her recent efforts, consider despite the move up.

Race 10: 6 Moira’s Bliss- May be th best mare at the track right now, best bet (ie: Giss of Death); 3 Longlegacy- Last week’s loss was more impressive than the win two back; 5 What’s Your Fantasy- To be better than third on this ticket; 2 Caribean Cruise- Always a solid player and could be better than fourth.

Race 11: 4 Surf New York- Nice filly looked solid in sophomore debut; 5 Cruise On Ashley- Has been facing better, based on last year’s performance; 8 Memphis Glow- May be the best horse, but she gets the worst post.

Race 12: 3 Karrydale Charm- She’s way overdue and may have found a group she can beat; 5 Medoland Kendall- Always hangs around, but rarely wins; 2 Ann’s Win’n Design- Was a bit better with Sugg driving. A maybe.

Race 13: 4 Mindy Love Brown- Stahl choosing to the Sherman trainee is dog bites man; 6 Saratoga’s Best- Like the choice gets class relief and us a serious contender; 8 Stonebridge Beauty- In superior form right now, but gets another awful post; 2 Holdzmfromfloppin- Gets class relief, but showed little in her first back off the break.

Wednesday 6/27

2011-06-26T12:14:00.000-07:00

It's another $10K Guaranteed Pick 4 on races 8-11, with just a 14% takeout. Hope to have a July update soon.

Here is the play. It looks a bit different than usual.

38/23/all/5=$36
38/23/47/6=$8 Total play $44

Race 8:Look for a repeats of 3)Bella Bionda and 8)Firm Jet's duel from last week. The Jet draws the 8 hole again, while the filly is improving with every start.
Race 9: I love 2)Christmas Photo K now that he finally has shown us a good effort, but 3)Delaware Fortune is a more experienced animal who gets the nod with Noble.
Race 10: 7) Lee A Bryant is the best horse but draws outside. Let's hope for a longshot
Race 11: There may be a trainer in the country hotter than Gregory Straub and is primary owner is driver Ryan Stahl. That makes 5) Gran Mer Jac a logical single. But, these are conditioned claimers and anything can happen, so we play a saver with 6) Zhihong Pang.

Here is the whole card. Good luck.

Race 1: 5 Candy J- She’s racing better Lasixless and with a change of scenery; 3 Posessive Power- Two big efforts have come up short, post helps a lot here; 2 Ocean Front- Fresh horse angle off an iffy qually.

Race 2: 3 Game Maggie- Closed a bit in the Q and gets a soft spot here; 2 Izalovelyscooter- May improve with Wyatt drivng, has a bit of gate speed; 1 Western Spark- Consider from the rail.

Race 3: 1 Count Dracula- Class dropper is an easy winner if he stays flat; 9 Mac Attack Mac- Another class dropper, he has shown little, but gets Noble; 4 Gate Keeper- Fits well, but Noble chose to the #9.

Race 4: 6 Go Go Osborne- Has done everything but win so far. Rod Stewart horse (tonight’s the night); 3 Upfront Pensive- Was facing better in Pennsy, but he is unproven at any level; 7 Bells Cruiser- 3rd back angle and value; 4 Tic Tic Tic Boom- Decent qualifier merits minor consideration for first-timer.

Race 5: 2 Count Dale- Racing well against better & should cruise; 6 Power Strike Chip- Solid maiden win at ScD, but he’ll need to do more; 7 Endless Vacation- Racing well, but not as effective from out here.

Race 6: 5 Rose Run Freddie- Has been solid over his last six and gets the call; 1 Super Rapper- Class dropper shows little, but has Noble; 7 High Gear Speed- Always does some work, will it be enough?

Race 7: 9 Intrepid Orion- Big class drop and Noble chose over #1 and #5; 1 Tally Ho Don- May be cutting the fractions in this one; 3 Southview Don- was much improved with a competitive post draw last time; 7 Powerful Cam- Default choice to wrap the super.

Race 8: 3 Bella Bionda- Continues to race well & may turn the tables this time; 8 Firm Jet- Tries to make it 2 straight from the snowman. Good luck with that; 1 Call Him Cruiser- Best of the rest, especially from rail.

Race 9: 3 Delaware Fortune- A horse name or Phil Terry’s salary? I kid, but he wins; 2 Christmas Photo K- Still has upside, don’t ignore; 4 Colossal Cruiser- Drops, but was awful before leaving for Indiana.

Race 10: 7 Lee A Bryant- Solid sophomore stays in the class off an impressive win; 4 Heez Ruthless N- Always streaky and he is in a good one now; 9 Race Track Cruiser- Can stalk these for a piece; 1 Bodandy Andy- Needs to finish better, wraps the super in a well-matched group.

Race 11: 5 Gran Mer Jac- Third back for a red-hot barn; 6 Zhihong Pang- Was very game last time, but loses Stahl; 1 Cruisin The Waves- has tactical speed and races well for Swartz.

Race 12: 6 Egotistic Pro- Too old to be named for Lebron, he raced well in his return; 5 Cb Attack- Freshened and now he drops to the bottom; 7 Chocolate Crush- Raced well in his only try at this level.

Race 13: 2 Star Drifter N- Easy winner if he duplicates the qualifier; 3 Raps A Million- Gets solid class relief, Noble and a good draw; 5 Nicky Hanover N- Third back angle and showed some work at Scioto; 1 Sultan Desbi- Too many auto pitches here and he does have the rail.

The Last Monday before Saturdays return

2011-06-24T12:27:00.000-07:00

And that means the last Monday without NW$150PS and maiden claimers. Saturdays return July 2 and there is no Monday racing next week, July 4. I will be watching my girls try to cement an undefeated summer league record. Results are not important in this league, but at some point you dig in. We are defending brilliantly (3 goals allowed in 6 matches) as last year, and we are seeing a number of them really pick things up. It's gonna be a fun summer/fall
Here are the picks:

Race 1: 2 Rose Run Nellie- Scotty calls on Noble for Nellie, who should be tighter; 4 Simmy- Raced well in the prestigious $600 Open at Circleville; 5 Christmas Knight- Just a hunch this well-connected trotter improves.

Race 2: 1 Moonsailer- Usually does good work, gets the rail and now has Stahl; 5 Vaniscape- Inconsistent, but must figure with Noble driving; 3 I’ve Got Life- Could win at any time on memories alone, will be on the point.

Race 3: 6 Jazzys Boy- Rider calls on a top catch driver in Charlino; 9 Rose Run Margrita- Good qualifier, but may need a start or two; 3 Cinder Sierra- Always puts in effort, rarely acts like her old man (and that’s a good thing).

Race 4: 2 Moreland Flash- Loves this track and Noble chose him over #6 and #8, he’s facing softer; 4 Rounding Third- Still trying to put it all together; 9 Little Gary Perry- In tough, but another who likes the Route Eight oval; 1 Tooter Lane- May be on the ticket from the rail.

Race 5: 9 Monkey Off My Back- Drops below the level of his last win and has faced far better; 2 Native Fate- clearly improved in his Route 23 stint; 3 Blissful Court- Only due to Charlino. I thought Rawlings made baseball gloves.

Race 6: 1 Christina Victory- Has beaten better here regularly and is the main threat from the rail; 6 Celebrity Wonder- Doesn’t always fire, but racing style fits here; 2 Spit Happens- Sick scratch worries me, or he’d be on top.

Race 7: 3 Rabbitman- Was no littler bunny Foo Foo last time Charlino drove; 1 Shannons Boy Scout- Has a huge brush that we might actually witness in this class; 7 Goodnite Wilbur- Very professional and adds some value; 4 Liltycantbedenied- Top four last five, must use on the bottom of your super ticket. NW1L8.

Race 8: 2 Gold Fever- Nominally gets some class relief, but you wonder why; 3 Fortune Ho- May actually benefit from the missed time; 9 Magnificent Gift- Usually gives effort and being inside, even in the 2nd tier, helps him.

Race 9: 1 Fox Valley Flyby- Moves up off remarkable win for hottest barn around; 4 Delivered Rules- Hoping his C-bus form carries over as he returns home; 8 Caramel Dumpling- Class relief and will be flying late despite snowman.

Race 10: 3 On The Shady Side- Major player if he finishes his mile; 1 Go Cowboy Go- Has been solid since the barn change; 7 Left’em Standing- Has been facing better, but moves outside; 2 No No Richard- Hot barn and this one could be anything. I like the way he won at Paulding.

Race 11: 9 Goin Home Ray- Moves up off a good win and Charlino makes a rare choice off Zakman; 3 Mattonthecdhooch- 3rd back off a Circleville prep; 2 Zakman- A major player, even without Dan C.

Race 12: 3 Key Western- Improved with the drop to 600, a maybe pick;’ 5 Up Front Northern- NW1L8 has a chance with his best; 2 Moon River Dell- Comes off two good closing efforts and must be thrown into the mix.

Race 13: 4 Ge’s Antonio- Drops below the level of his last win & could be a decent value play; 1 Doowrah’s Deal- Class relief, the rail and decent results against better; 9 Standin On A Beach- Third back after a pair of snowmen, should contend; 8 Wardog Hall- Aaron chose over #6 and #9 who look better on paper. Snowman is a big issue.

Friday fillies and mares

2011-06-22T11:23:00.001-07:00

I may actually be at the track for a few races Friday if I can clear my schedule and weather cooperates.

Good luck!

Race 1: 4 Date Worthy- She’s the only one in here carrying a tag, big advantage; 5 Catherinethegreat- Is the fastest winner of these, but without victory recently; 7 Sturgeon- Risky off a break, but raced well in new barn debut.

Race 2: 2 Vivacious Raider- Lukewarm call with Stahl in the bike; 9 Matt-scoot-n-bunny- Just a hunch and we need some value to play this race; 3 Swift Samantha- Inconsistent, but contends with her best.

Race 3: 1 Acoustic Hanover- Sounds good to me with Sugg choosing over #3; 3 Spiced Pork- Nice trotter, but Kurt chose off; 4 Brewing Master- I need a beer with that pork, this one is better than the lines show.

Race 4: 3 I Am Samsational- Faces a pretty soft group here; 2 Jjs Request- Has shown a bit and Harvey chose over #1; 6 Lisa Character- Contends with her best, but is an up-and-downer; 1 Hawthorne Maria- Has a bhit of speed and may contend from the rail.

Race 5: 1 Ima Cricket Also- Stahl and the rail get her the win; 4 Go Merrily Along- The string of place finishes continues; 8 R Cowboy- Not sure this old guy can overcome the snowman, but he’s worth a shot against these.

Race 6: 6 Jimi’s Little Wing- I’ve always liked this mare and she is in a good spot here; 1 Friendly Kathy- Winless on the season, but may be a player from the rail; 6 Sand Bird- Another winless one, but the barn’s been warming up.

Race 7: 4 Paint Tina- Unlike the others, she still has upside; 2 Memphis Glow- the obvious odds-on choice and a likely winner; 3 Scandalous- Showed signs of warming up last time; 8 Capital Baby- Depends on the trip from out here, but a longshot bottom-of-the ticket choice.

Race 8: 3 Storms Never Last- Robin chooses to the Hollar horse, as usual, so flash gets stuck with Stahl; 1 Sara’s Lil Sis- Should get the trip she needs from the rail and may surprise; Longlegacy- Fast, but doesn’t always fire.

Race 9: 7 Sj’s Manawa Sam- No idea what his upside is, but the likely fave has been tiring; 3 Lucca’s Revenge- Will be on the point until at least mid-stretch; 5 Rose Run Mac- Crawford & McKirgan are a good trotting combo.

Race 10: 6 Osborne’s Sweeper- I know regular readers are absolutely shocked by this pick; 2 Drop Of Nutmeg- I’ve always liked her and she may be best of the rest with Robin; 1 Admirals Diamond- Likes this track and the rail, tool; 4 Caribean Cruise- Nice, honest mare. Could easily be 2nd or 3rd.

Race 11: 1 Enticing Attack- Gets the rail and Kurt Sugg, who chose her over #3/7/8; 7 Saratoga’s Best- Always gives good effort, but PP7 may be hard to overcome; 4 Eradikate- This filly is going to figure it all out one day.

Race 12: 2 Electric Presence- Love the Stahl/Melloy angle, especially since Ryan chose off the ML pick; 1 My Sweet Lorelei- Put her in a good position and she will give you effort; 4 Fantastic Fran- On memories alone.

Race 13: 6 Cruisin Delight- Comes in off a win against softer, lukewarm call here; 3 She’s All Country- We’ve got that Stahl/Melloy thing going again; 1 Sadie Falcon- Not a fan, but she must be considered from the rail; 9 I Love Being Right- Just needs to follow the 1 and she will get a decent result.

Wednesday June 22

2011-06-21T11:08:00.000-07:00

After a 100 hole golf marathon Monday, I am trying to get all my various body parts working with full range of motion again, so I apologize if we have (more than the usual number of) typos.

Pick 4 Races 8-11
$10K Guaranteed 14% Takeout

A great night on Monday's card with 7 or 8 winners and a positive ROI, but did not pick a single winner in the Pick 4, with my single finishing 2nd. Had several 2 of 4 tickets and that pays the same as my son pays rent. Nada.

Here is Wednesday's play. It looks to be a pretty tough one.
125/2348/24/12=$48

Analysis:

Race 8:1) DD Cam Ram has drawn poorly of late and now gets the rail and Noble, who chose over #2/3/6. 2) Delaware Fortune doesn't win much, but contends often. 5) Slade Gram is just a professional racehorse who must be considered from any decent draw.

Race 9: 4)Bella Bionda is relatively green and we have used her at a good number the past two weeks. Won't be 10-1 here. 3) Zhihong Pang is one of those frustrating animals who is either very good or very poor and gives no advance indication. 8) Firm Jet is the best in this race but seems to need the front. Can he get it from out here. And 2) Suited N Booted must be considered with Noble.

Race 10:4) Lee A Bryant is a solid animal who always does work. 2)Lucifer Bluegrass drops waaaaaayyyy down in awful form. Can't take the chance on him waking up by leaving him out.

Race 11: Noble and Stahl chose their drives here and both are serious improvements over the trainers, who normally drive. Slight call to #2)Liftoff Bayama over #1) Big Valley, but both need to be on the ticket.

Here is analysis on the whole card;

Race 1: 1 Candy J- Winning Q may mean she has more to show against a very soft group; 3 Impressive Mariah- Has been anything but, but gets fresh hands; 5 None For Me- His name or his win record this year?

Race 2: 2 Jessejo- Looked very impressive with hopples & may have more to offer; 1 Clayton Delaney- 3rd back & racing well, should win, but at ridiculously short odds; 5 Rose Run Freddie- Best of the rest.

Race 3: 2 Goodite Wilbur- Finally draws well and having Noble won’t hurt; 5 Search The Falcon- Drops to the bottom and should contend; 7 Eclipse Seelster- Yet another bad draw, but has ability.

Race 4: 6 Heza Firecracker- Class relief following a very strong effort; 9 Big Bad Tj- Arguable they best horse, I just think he’ll need a start; 2 Chocolate Crush- NW1L8 gets his best draw since I worked at the track full-time; 4 Hickory Hunter-Usually hangs around from decent post draws.

Race 5: 5 Fitsgonnahitdashan- The call just for his name & good effort in local debut; 2 A Legend At Last- Did huge work in career debut, serious player; 7 Beware Of The Diva- Good advice w/Noble driving.

Race 6: 3 Freedom Hall- Harris to Noble may pick him up slightly; 4 Final Scorpion- drops a couple classes and must be considered; 1 Chippin Snow- Class dropper must trot the mile in this one.

Race 7: 3 Perry- Maybe the 4th track in 4 starts gets him home; 2 Gran Mer Jac- Straub and Stahl, the pair rarely fall; 6 Cruisin The Waves- Has been competitive in conditioned-claimers; 7 Brother Of Another- Actually, brother of several who have raced here, faces softer tonight.

Race 8: 1 Dd Cam Ram- Has been inconsistent, but I think it’s due to post position; 2 Delaware Fortune- Moves up and Noble moves off; 5 Slade Gram- Professional race horse must always be considered.

Race 9: 4 Bella Bionda- Still green and still improving; 3 Zhihong Pang- Stahl’s choice from among 1/3/5/9; 8 Firm Jet- Very fast, but it seems he needs the front & I don’t see him getting it from the snowman.

Race 10: 4 Lee A Bryant- Big closing kick gives him the call in a tough group to ‘cap; 1 Rapid Pursuit- Has tactical speed, gets Stahl and the rail; 2 Lucifer Bluegrass- Could win by ten or lose by twenty, the monkey wrench in the works; 6 Rocco’s Revenge- Has been facing better, but is all over the place.

Race 11: 2 Liftoff Bayama- Big win with Stahl two back; 1 Big Valley- Gets Noble, would like him more w/Barbara Stanwyck; 3 Mr Kite- Veteran is inconsistent, but draws well, sort of like the late Harvey Pekar.

Race 12: 3 Snooz Attack- Third back, class drop and Noble, who chose over 2/4/5; 4 Sultan Desbi- Gets fresh hands; 7 Mcfriendly- Ususally does work and may sustain it in this evenly-matched field.

Race 13: 3 Lima Jag- Only because Wyatt chose over #2, who was my original pick; 2 Blueridge Tooquick- Had no shot from the snowman in his local return; 1 Ron Jeremy- Showed signs of waking up in last and the rail helps; 9 House Of Green- Has proven he can hang around at this level.

Friday fillies and mares and some thoughts on cheese

2011-06-15T10:31:00.000-07:00

On to the picks in a minute. The other day, I stopped at Burger King for a Whopper with cheese. The cheese was extra. The Big Mac includes cheese. The Quarter Pounder with cheese, well... The Romanburger from Mister Hero includes cheese. Hell even Iron Chef Mike Symon includes cheese with his B-Spot burgers at no extra charge. So what is up with that and how much is your cheese worth?
I mean, I get paying extra for a cheeseburger over a hamburger. Heck, White Castle charges a coulpe pennies more for jalapenos than pickles.But the Whopper is the King, the be all-end all of their menu. And I have to pay 25 cents extra for a slice that weights maybe 3/4 of an ounce. $5.00 a pound for cheese. I guess that isn't outrageous. But it still seems cheap and, well, cheesy. By the way, according to BK's website, they have a Cheddar option or an American option.

Rant over. Here are the picks on what seems like a very playable card.

Race 1: 1 Sturgeon- Closed well in last and may be getting the caviar tonight; 2 Can’t Fence Me In- Dirty chose over #5 & this one may have more; 3 High Sonyador- Best draw in a while & shows some good efforts. Sometimes.

Race 2: 6 Ursula K- Hoping fresh hands make her Sugg-cessful; 3 Freenezdwontheroad- We have a Doug Guptill sighting; 9 Sophia- Needs to finish her mile, but may get a pretty decent trip here.

Race 3: 2 Legacy Chip- Easily beat these last time in the class from a poor post; 4 Lucca’s Revenge- had faced better on Route 23 and likes this track; 3 Lofty Jailbird- Robin’s chose over #1, nice colt for NEDAB stalwart Acker.

Race 4: 4 Mandm Willeedee- NW1L8 gets a slight call in a tough group to figure; 5 Quite A Shark- Wyatt chose overt he ML choice despite an iffy qualifier; 1 Mach N Cookies- Has contended in this class previously; 9 Back Home Again- Always gives effort, just doesn’t have tons of ability.

Race 5: 1 Jenabell- Inside draw may be the key, getting Stahl won’t hurt; 3 Moira’s Intended- races well when she draws well. She does, she should; 2 Longlegacy- Ends a miserable string of post positions and may surprise.

Race 6: 1 Darting Larkin- Easy winner with a flat mile. No guarantee of that; 3 Dappers Flash- Big-time class relief, but current form is suspect; 7 Paint Tina- Hasn’t sustained her work lately, but beat lesser last time Stahl drove.

Race 7: 3 Moira’s Bliss- Raced well for the new connections and may keep going forward; 1 Gadjet- Rail helps in an evenly matched group; 4 Storms Never Last- The Swartz is with her instead of the #5; 5 Caribean Cruise- Cochran’s okay, but I would like Russ or Ryan better.

Race 8: 4 Spring Fling- Solid effort with Kenny taking over the lines in last; 5 High Heels N Spurs- Has benefitted from post & trip lately, we’ll now see what she’s made of; 3 One Starry Night- Does good work, she’s a player here.

Race 9: 1 Precious Lass- Major class relief puts her atop this ticket; 2 Deena- Racing well, but she’s 0-14 this year; 6 Imagine Freedom- Imagine a 20-1 ML on a horse who is worse than 4th just once in last five in this class.

Race 10: 6 Admirals Diamond- It could be a big night for John G; 9 Jjs Request- Consistently good efforts of late; 1 Lisa Character- Lasix is not helping her late in the mile, one more chance; 5 Sara’s Lil Sis- Third start back angle.

Race 11: 3 R Cowboy- Class-dropper races two levels below his last win here; 1 Seaworthy- Will be forward early from the rail; 2 Diehl’s Deal- Fresh hands and a good draw after a bunch of bad posts.

Race 12: 9 Coupon Lady- Very impressive in her last start, 2nd tier a question; 2 Doowrah Silver- Moves up in an exceptionally good form cycle; 8 Mindy Love Brown- Gets the snowman again, was best of the rest against the top choice despite that last week.

Race 13: 4 Sadie Falcon- Maybe she will wake up after a pretty decent win; 2 Scandalous- faces far lesser than she has been; 5 Jetstreamjazziecam- Back to her old habits last time, that’s worrisome; 6 Towner’s Big Sadie- Getting a bit braver and should be on this ticket.

Wednesday wonders and musings

2011-06-13T08:15:00.000-07:00

Just heard this. Why didn't Lebron James go to college? He didn't want to show up for the finals.

So, my home office has two large windows overlooking Lee Road, a pretty busy street. Windows were a luxury I never had when I worked at Northfield (not just me, very few of us) so I enjoy the air and the sights and sounds. I often work from my front porch thanks to the advent of wireless technology. And I have to say, my neighborhood has some of the ugliest dogs in the world. I am not a dog guy, but I appreciate labs and shepherds and even specific breeds of terriers. But we have the most non-descript, funny-looking cartoon animals being walked in front of my house that i have ever seen. At least the majority of them are on leashes (and hopefully are spayed or neutered). Okay, observations over, on to the races.

$10K Guaranteed Pick 4 Races 8-11 (14% takeout)

The play: 1256/256/1/12= $24
and 26/256/17/12- $24 $48 total wagered.

Analysis:

Race 8: The class relief helps 6)Fox Valley Flyby who campaigns for a sharp barn, but 2)Samcin may trip out here. 1)Auto Pilot defends the rail and 5)Heez Ruthless is my longshot pick.
Race 9: I thought 6) Ilooklikerudy raced pretty well with Kurt Sugg in the bike for the first time. Look for a big mile from him. 2) SJ's Manawa Sam comes off consecutive life marks and will be favored and 5)High Gear Speed is in good form.
Race 10:1)Panskrit is my best bet of the night and I want to thank Director of Racing Dave Bianconi for putting this race int he Pick 4. 7) Go Cowboy Go still has some upside as a recent Ehrhardt acquisition coming off a life mark.
Race 11:Looks like the inside two are the only valid players here.

And the whole card:
Race 1:5 Llc- Has to win eventually & still meets 10% career threshold; 2 Trytopass Sam- Fresh & should improve with a start under his belt; 1 Mr Sam- Showed improvement first time Noble and gets him again.

Race 2: 6 Impressive Mariah- Lukewarm call in a race where I prefer to abstain; 9 Danny-o- Has the same number of ’11 wins as Lebron has rings; 1 Lost Photo- Robin chose over the ML choice, rail helps.

Race 3:2 Eclipse Seelster- Has drawn miserably of late & post two helps. A lot; 1 Big Valley- Another one with improved position. Will “The Falcon” fly? 5 Macinnis Seelster- Freshened and did a little work in return.

Race 4: 3 Make My Day Mary- Talk about a troubled trip. Yikes! 6 Man I’m Good- Closed well in career debut, how much more does she have? 5 Sparkle Tina- Has faced better and had an excuse in her local return; 7 Mr Ballistic- Moves up but has shown some ability, victim of the pace here.

Race 5: 2 Tally Ho Don- Gets Noble and I doubt these go :55.1 like the qualifier; 3 Raging Bull- Always does work, needs to sustain it this time; 5 Hickory Hunter- A bit inconsistent, but must consider with these.

Race 6: 2 Just Walter- Drops to the level of his last win; 6 Shekinah Glory- Stalking sort will need to work out a trip but adds value; 5 Freedom Hall- Always hangs around and must be used on the ticket.

Race 7: 5 Wow Power- Third back angle from a NW1L8 class-dropper; 4 Chocolate Crush- Perked up with the drop to the absolute bottom; 1 Up Front Northern- On the board three straight, makes it four tonight; 9 Liltycantbedenied- Let us down last week but must be used on this super ticket.

Race 8: 6 Fox Valley Flyby- Drops and has been racing well for ridiculously hot barn; 2 Samcin- Best post in two months and has still raced well; 5 Heez Ruthless N- Has back class, perhaps a wake-up call in last?

Race 9: 6 Ilooklikerudy- Closed well 1st-time Sugg & may be even better here; 2 Sj’s Manawa Sam- Easily handled slightly lesser in last, his first with Noble; 1 Hogue’s Rockie- Triple class drop and the rail.

Race 10: 1 Panskrit- Best bet of the night. There’s your Giss of Death; 7 Go Cowboy Go- Has raced well for Ehrhardt, post hurts; 9 Crown Time Rambo- Won’t draw first blood from the second tier; 4 Race Track Cruiser- Minor contender with a positive post draw.

Race 11: 2 Fancy Schmansy- Ground out a first-over bid that faltered, better trip tonight; 1 Doowrah’s Trifold- Will defend the rail but needs to step up; 6 J D’s Turismo- Has faced better with little success.

Race 12: 4 Bella Bionda- Looks slightly best in a very well-matched group; 8 Scooter In Motion- Would get my call if she hadn’t drawn the snowman; 9 Zhihong Pang- Always hanging around. Must do more.

Race 13: 1 I’ve Got Life- Back down the road with his nose on the gate; 6 Triggerhappyfellow- Shows some decent closing efforts and sets up well here; 3 Jeremy’s Chaser- The only NW1L8 in here must be considered; 9 Goodnite Wilbur- A horse is a horse, of course, of course.

Monday June 13, 2011

2011-06-10T13:34:00.000-07:00

There is a $10K Guaranteed Pick 4 on races 8-11, with a low 14% takeout (as always).
Here is my play:

234/14/245/23= $36
234/14/5/23= $12

Analysis:
Race 8: 3) I Know Your Lookin ships from Buffalo and those shipper often need a start locally, so add 4)Show Me Big Slick, who is rounding into form, and 2) Winter cruise who may be bravened after beating lesser.
Race 9: 1)Kb's On My Toes beat these last time in the class, but Class Worker is very sharp.
Race 10: It's tempting to single Picasso's Dream, down two classes after a huge mile against the $6s, but I need to protect myself with 4)Magnificent Gift and 2)Dm Fatboy Slim, who threw in a rare bad effort last time.
Race 11: 2)Dr Jacks Shack has been very solid, beating these three back, but 4) Blue Time Overdue gets double class relief.

And the rest of the card:

Race 1: 5 Cologio- Homebred looked like a different animal in that last qualifier; 1 Triple Threat- May have actually arced better than the pick in that Q, but lost; 9 Bo Belle- Maybe racing from a hole will help him. Maybe not.

Race 2: 3 Rounding Third- Nobody knows this one better than Dale does; 2 On The Shady Side- Another chance after the break; 5 Rapid City- The likely favorite has owned this class in the past.

Race 3: 3 Endless Vacation- Fresh hands, McKirgan to Noble,. Who chose over #2 and #4; 9 Powerful Spur- Maybe he figured it out in his last start; 2 Spiker- Gotta pick somebody

Race 4: 2 Aliquippa- NW1L8 must be given serious consideration; 3 Laughing Is An Art- Noble’s choice, but he just isn’t winning races; 1 House Of Green- Dismiss him at your own risk, especially from the rail; 5 Hooser Lion- Is a bit of a tease (oh, the punch lines), but must be looked at seriously here.

Race 5: 1 Gordieisanartist- So he moves back up. Gets the rail off a 53.2 win; 6 Jenna’s Dream- Keeps making big moves late and is furthest in of the Winners Over; 4 S F Dynamite- Post punishes the other logical players.

Race 6: 8 Iknowwhatboyslike- Has been very good forever, may not overcome the snowman, but that’s how to bet; 2 Rose Run Mac- Uncharted territory, but a nice one; 6 Can’t Lose- Yeah, he can, but very good form on Route 23.

Race 7: 1 Delaware Fortune- Third back, the rail and Noble. ‘Nuff said; 4 Gina Marie P- Double class drop makes him a player; 2 Date Knight K- Local return was pretty good and now he gets Aaron; 5 Sometimes Eternal- Fresh horse, third start this year, and he has previous local success.

Race 8: 3 I Know Your Lookin- Monstrous class drop. Will he need a local start? 4 Show Me Big Slick- Third back and racing well; 2 Winter Cruise- May be braver off the win, has contended at this level in the past.

Race 9: 1 Kb’s On My Toes- Did win last time in the class & Charlino chose over my initial choice, who was: 4 Class Worker- Moves up in exceptional form & may surprise; 2 Rocco’s Revenge- One of these days I’ll figure him out.

Race 10: 5 Picasso’s Dream- Raced huge against the sixes last time and is now in for four; 4 Magnificent Gift- Big last quarter and may be closer up this time; 2 Dm Fatboy Slim- Should rebound with the inside draw; 9 Lrs Mamas Boy- Improving each start for owner-driver Stahl and trainer Straub.

Race 11: 2 Dr Jack’s Shack- Gets the call in a competitive group that he beat three back; 3 Blue Time Overdue- Drops down and should be fine; 4 Sleek Fish- First time Noble angle may help.

Race 12: 4 Ata Ata- Now that he (finally) has won, he may string several; 9 Rd Rustler- Inconsistent, but has a chance if one in front of him leaves; 2 Lima Jag- Improved post draw gives him slight hope.

Race 13: 3 Winter’s Finali- NW1L8 gets Aaron, who chose over 1/2/5; 4 I Believe Hoye- Form is improving, but it is it enough? 6 Wildirdge Star- Has only missed the board once recently; 9 Southview Don- Not usre. Class dropper clearly needed the last start, but seemed totally disinterested.

Friday fillies and mares

2011-06-08T10:54:00.000-07:00

Picks in a minute, first a totally off-topic rant. Most fast-food places, when you order a , you get a drink. That should be part of "a meal," it seems. But the Yum Foods folks (who bring you the Kentuckly Derby) apparently don't think so. At least not at the restaurants formerly known as Kentucky Fried Chicken. So I paid $9.50 for a $7.75 (already overpriced) 3-piece meal. Well not again.

Back on-topic, rant over. Congrats to Northfield for pulling the trigger on an "instant guarantee" on the $20K Pick 5 Wednesday. Ironically, I had just sent off this month's Harness Eye column pleading for bigger guarantees when I got the word. Well done.

Here are the picks. Good Luck!

Race 1: 2 High Heels N Spurs- Moves up in good form and gets Aaron; 5 Sturgeon- Love first-time Ehrhardt, but needs a big form reversal; 4 One Starry Night- the sick scratch makes this one a big, big question mark.

Race 2: 3 All Over Now- Third start back and first good purse post in ages; 5 Friendly Kathy- Koch chose this one over the ML favorite; 2 Back Home Again- Must be considered with the good post draw.

Race 3: 2 S F Spiderman- Should be an easy winner with a flat mile; 1 Brewing Master- Nice horse, but can’t bring myself to put him on top with trainer driving; 6 Yesternite- Got the flat mile off a Q and can be more aggressive now.

Race 4: 1 She’sa Town Girl- Gets class relief and the rail; 2 Medoland Kendall- Probable favorite gets a 2nd start back but seemed short in the return; 7 Miss Port Foal Leo- Major player with Merriman driving; 4 Broadway Petera- Seems to get along pretty well with Robin, or vice-versa.

Race 5: 6 Admirals Diamond- Has been knocking at the door and may break through here; 2 Saratoga’s Best- Should get a pretty good trip here; 3 Sarastar- 1st-time Lasix & has faced better on paper, but may need a local start.

Race 6: 6 Storms Never Last- Versatility gives her a slight edge; 5 Caribean Cruise- Gets class relief and Stahl, a major factor; 9 Jessies Band- Not 100% sure how she will contend at this level, but worth a chance.

Race 7: 4 Queen Aliceanna- Gets class relief and has been solid against better, 12-1? 1 Gram Of Gold- Must be considered with Aaron and the rail; 2 Coupon Lady- Draws well and should be on the ticket; 8 Mindy Love Brown- Would be on top of the ticket if not for the snowman.

Race 8: 2 Moira’s Bliss- Barn change and gets owner-driver Stahl; 8 Osborne’s Gypsy- Raced well against similar, but the snowman and loss of regular pilot hurt; 1 Getherdone Sue- Contender from the rail, but in tough.

Race 9: 1 Master Lad Pro- Different horse when you use him leaving; 6 Done It All- He gone forward since the barn change. Is there more? 5 Go Merrily Along- Sugg’s choice over #7, who is one of the winningest locally.

Race 10: 2 Jetstream Jazzie Cam- Showed a glimpse of her potential last time; 1 Dreamfair Annie- Just a hunch from the rail; 9 Cooby N- May trip out if the #1 leaves; 4 Royal Cam Osborne- Shows decent lines against better.

Race 11: 7 Vivacious Raider- Class relief gives her the call in what seems like a two-horse race; 9 Cruisin Delight- Big improvement with the drop last time, but Stahl chose off; 1 Ursula K- Needs a good trip.

Race 12: 3 Lisa Character- Has been a bit better with Lasix and this is her best level; 4 Karrydale Charm- Class relief and Aaron, so tempting, but… 9 Doowrah Silver- Always contends but rarely wins.

Race 13: 1 Clarksville Jazz- Gets the call dropping down with the rail; 5 Jimi’s Little Wing- Trip from Hades last time. Find a pylon; 3 Getcha Sum Fortune- The other class dropper may need a local start; 6 Sadie Falcon- Not a fan, but must consider with Merriman.

wide-open Wednesday 6/8-

2011-06-06T08:54:00.000-07:00

An interesting card. You feel like there should be a lot of value, or a lot of false favorites, but identifying the value is tough.

BULLETIN- With a big carryover, Northfield is guaranteeing a $20K Pick 5 pool tonight. 14% Takeout, too. Races 3-7. My play:

25/24/15679/1/1345= $80. A bit large, but well worth it with a $6K Carryover

Sorry, no time to analyze.

Pick 4 $10K Guarantee and 14% Takeout:
27/39/14/147= $24 invested. Just not all that confident in this one.

Race 8: Maiden pacers. 2) Thisonesforjunior is solid and 7) Bewareofthediva gets Noble. The 1)Ava Marie Cam and the 6) A Legend At Last could spoil the ticket here.

Race 9: 3) Sj's Manawa Sam gets my call with Noble, even though Stahl chose off. 9 M B Winner K drops and gets trotting master Don McKirgan.

Race 10: Looks to be a two horse race between the nice sophomore, #4) Lee A Bryant and #1) Crown Time Rambo, whose recent lines are impressiver (yeah, I know).

Race 11: 1)Panskrit, on paper, is clearly the best. But he has let us down in the past and we must back ourselves up. 4) Wow Power got a good tightener in his last and 7 Shannons Boy Scout drops to the level of his last win and gets fresh hands.

And the entire card:
Race 1: 4 Super Donut- Good Q may mean ready in 1st back for super Pork Chop; 2 Northmedo Hoo-ray- Noble will drive the fave, but is 0-17 in 2011; 3 Sullivan’s Travels- Good draw for 1st time w/ a catch driver.

Race 2: 2 Redzilla- Appears the best, but I had to hire an attorney to understand the AE’s; 9 Danny-o- Doesn’t sustain his work, but at least he does some; 5 Canadian Frontier- Also shows recent work, must time the move.

Race 3: 2 Suited n Booted- No value with Noble, but a winner anyway; 5 Jetstream Cruising- Has shown improvement in recent efforts; 1 Thessaly- More effective from the rail, but how much more?

Race 4: 4 Go cowboy Go- Noble chose the class dropper who has been pretty consistent; 2 House Of Green- Drops to the level of his last win, but was overmatched at NW$200PS; 6 Up Front Northern- Always contends, but Noble chose off; 9 I’ve Got Life- Not sure how interested he will be racing from a hole.

Race 5: 9 Mr Sam- Change to Noble could push him over the top; 5 High Gear Speed- Needs to find overdrive after a string of solid efforts; 1 Trytopass Sam- Freshened and gets the rail.

Race 6: 1 Liltycantbdenied- I really don’t see him winning, but none of the others look any better; 6 E C K- Recent strike rate is about 7%, 0% this year; 9 Laag The Mile- Gets a perfect trip, but has $0 earned L5.

Race 7: 3 Liftoff Bayama- Love the change to Stahl here; 1 Tactical Dreamer N- Has faced better and raced better earlier this year; 5 Powerful Cam- Has shown some pop dropping to this level; 4 Jeremy’s Chaser- Should be good (for a while, anyhow) from this draw.

Race 8: 2 Thisonesforjunior- Good seasonal debut and he gets around a half fine; 7 Beware Of The Diva- Sloan-homebred gets Noble off a decent Q; 1 Ava Marie Cam- Closed well and can still go forward.

Race 9: 3 Sj’s Manawa Sam- Moves up off an impressive win. The call even with Ryan choosing off; 9 M B Winner K- Gets class relief for the master; 5 Rose Run Freddie- Only because Stahl chose over my pick.

Race 10: 1 Crown Time Rambo- More experienced than the likely fave, but I would box the exacta; 4 Lee A Bryant- very nice three-year-old is an unproven fast winner; 9 Auto Pilot- Has a bit of back class and is almost 50% on the board lifetime; 3 Lt Commander- Fresh hands angle, Kash to Noble.

Race 11: 1 Panskrit- He has teased us before, but should easily win this; 4 Wow Power- Gets class relief after a needed start; 7 Shannons Boy Scout- Drops to level of his last win and may kick in w/fresh hands.

Race 12: 5 Heez Ruthless N- Drops out of claimers -- cheap ones, granted – to the bottom; 9 Chocolate Crush- Usually does some work; 2 Mcfriendly- Two recent on-the-board finishes equal the rest of the field.

Race 13: 1 Rb’s Luck- Supposed to be a good one and was pressured in local debut; 6 Zhihong Pang- Needs to sustain his work, but he fits; 7 Scooter in Motion- Outside post will hamper him, but how much? 4 Here To Stay- Was overmatched in last, this is a better level for him.

Monday, Monday

2011-06-03T10:16:00.000-07:00

A very playable card- I see a lot of value, especially early. Good luck.

$10K guaranteed Pick 4 with a 14% takeout (the pool has been in the $17-18K range most recent nights, btw)

The play:
34567/256/69/5=$30
all/5/6/45=$18

Analysis:
Race 8: A wide open affair. If not for the $50 limit I self-impose, I would simply have hit all, a $54 play, and hoped for a longshot.
Race 9: 5) Mainline Hall appears the nest on paper, but if 2)Scoozi can trip out, he becomes a factor. 6) Dm Fatboy Slim may be too far outside to contend
Race 10: 6) Sf Dynamite cruised in his local debut-ignore Stahl choosing off, he always goes to the Hamlet/Osborne horses 9) Cruise On Osborne may have met his match here, but must be used
Race 11: 5) Spit Happens has dominated in recent Northfield appearances. 4) Australian Stock is a nice horse who has had trouble with Northfield's surface in the past. I have to throw him on a few tickets as a "just in case."

Here are comments on the entire card:
Race 1: 6 Dynamic Thomas- They gave $4700 for him at Delaware, they must like him; 1 Bo Belle- Tired after a good 1st half in the Q, these won’t go :58; 5 Our Best Boy- Has picked up two checks in two starts and may improve.
Race 2: 7 Nascart- Stahl’s choice has done more work more consistently that the ML fave; 5 Big Valley- Inconsistent, but contends with his best; 1 Inquisitive Me- Fresh hands angle, and the rail doesn’t hurt.
Race 3: 2 Wild Pitch- Appears to be best with the inside draw; 1 Mr Bing- Was bet way down last time and raced well; 9 Swivel Hips- Ammon is a good trotting guy, and this one may step up, but 2nd tier is an issue.
Race 4: 5 Heza Firecracker- Has leveled against better, bus has had excuses; 1 Sleek Fish- Tends to make hard trips for himself, maybe not this time from the rail; 2 Sometimes Eternal- Class dropper may need one more start, but ignore at your peril; 6 Dm Ion- Moves up with a positive form cycle.
Race 5: 5 Wyatt- Very sharp and Noble picked over the rail horse; 6 One Sharp Spur- Always does work at Northfield and may add value; 3 Master Wheels- Best post in a couple months, can earn minor honors.

Race 6: 3 Rd Rustler- Just a hunch he steps up with Aaron driving; 4 Lrs Mamas Boy- Has raced well since Delaware purchase by Stahl, et al; 9 Cousin Mikey- Third back and has been racing well since the scratch.

Race 7: 4 Gordieisanartist- Has been highly competitive with better, Pick 5 single? 1 Bodandy Andy- Needs to finish his mile; 5 Soul Redeemer- Has had success with Aaron in the past and is racing well; 7 At Daybreak- Best of the rest, post is my issue.

Race 8: 5 Jenna’s Dream- Very consistent and now gets Charlino; 3 Sharp Shuttle- Has also been solid and he gets his best draw in two months; 4 Forever Friendly- Just as professional as they come. Always consider.

Race 9: 5 Mainline Hall- Was very game in his last win, watch the video; 2 Scoozi- Can get the stalking trip he needs here; 6 Dm Fatboy Slim- Fits with his best, but too many questions for me.
]
Race 10: 6 S F Dynamite- Stahl choosing off means little, impressed in local debut; 9 Cruise On Osborne- Love this horse, but #6 appears tougher; 4 Category Six- Draws inside the other speed and is better on the point; 2 Show me Big Slick- Has tons of ability, but also has issues. He has been freshened, yet again.

Race 11: 5 Spit Happens- Dominated last time here in this class; 4 Australian Stock- Doesn’t always race well here, but current form means he’s a must use; 2 Catherinethegreat- Has leveled some, but she fits with inside draw.

Race 12: 3 Winter Cruise- Has been improving and now gets class relief; 9 Fancy Schmansy- Gets fresh hands in Noble; 4 Mr Kite- Third start back and could be ready for a big effort.

Race 13: 1 Buzz Hershey- Class relief and the rail should be the ticket, not that Charlino hurts; 5 Winter’s Finali- Aaron chose over #3 and #4; 4 Laughing Is An Art- Seems to be improving a bit and has back class, but no Aaron; 2 Ben’s Big Bird- Only knock is Noble choosing offm I will disagree;

Friday on My Mind (The Easybeats)

2011-06-01T12:21:00.000-07:00

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rBJLoYd8xak

Tonight I'll spend my bread, tonight I'll lose my head.

A very playable card. I will be packing up for a trip to Vernon Downs and Tioga Downs as the Handicapping Herpetologist, so I won't have a chance to play the card, but good luck!

Race 1: 4 Date Worthy- Not 100% convinced, but appears best on paper; 6 Rockin H Winnie- Gets class relief and Kurt chose over #1, who figures; 1 High Heels N Spurs- Consistent performer gets fresh hands here.

Race 2: 2 Anns Win’n Design- If you want to try to beat the fave, why not do it with a longshot? 6 Medoland Kendall- Can’t put her on top off a sick scratch and month off; 1 Cooby N- May be able to hang around from the rail.

Race 3: 3 Getherdone Sue- Slight call in a well-matched group; 6 Darting Larkin- Moves up, but does it in a positive form cycle; 2 Sunrise Sunset- Has been doing good work and now gets her nose on the gate.

Race 4: 6 Deena- Third back and seems the best of these; 2 Miss Port Foal Leo- Gets class relief and hasn’t been racing badly; 7 Jimi’s Little Wing- Another class dropper, but she needs to overcome a bad draw; 1 Sara’s Lil Sis- Just so I can say, Rachel had a choice of this one or the #9.

Race 5: 8 Osborne’s Gypsy- Even with the snowman, she is the solid play here; 9 Caribean Cruise- Should get a good trip behind Nutmeg; 5 Moira’s Bliss- The dark horse here, not sure how she fits, but nothing will surprise me.

Race 6: 9 Stox Up Bluegrass- Lukewarm call at best off a good broken equipment effort; 1 My My Marie- Well-connected and should still go forward; 5 Eradikate- Big improvement in last and youngster can still improve.

Race 7: 2 Storms Never Last- As consistent as they come and Wyatt chose over #3, who I really like here; 3 Admiral’s Diamond- May still be Sugg-cessful with 2nd choice driver; 1 I Am Samsational- Faces softer and may be sitting on a big mile; 5 Doowrah Silver- Has been impressive of late.

Race 8: 1 Dontevenknowmyname- Massive class relief and has gate speed; 5 One Starry Night- Took care of business last time, don’t ignore; 4 S F Spiderman- Barn change and may be in search of proper classification.

Race 9: 6 Cruisin Delight- Third back and gets the call with a drop to the new bottom; 3 Better Hustle- Usually does work, but must sustain it here; 8 Silky Sailor- Really like this mare, really hate her post draw.

Race 10: 1 Jessies Band- Racing well against some sharp winners; 9 Moira’s Intended- Racing well against lesser. Can she step up? 4 Dreamfair Frannie- Lasix seems to be helping, but she needs to show more; 2 Queen Aliceanna- Would like her a lot better if she wasn’t coming off a sick scratch.

Race 11: 3 Master Lad Pro- If it wasn’t for bad luck, he would have no luck at all; 4 Mom’s Looker- Needs to catch a breather and may not in this mile; 2 Done It All- Improving for pork chop and Marty, how good is he really?

Race 12: 1 Towner’s Big Sadie- She’s 0-19 this year, but Stahl chose over #5 and #7, so… 4 Happy Occasion- inconsistent, but fits with her best; 5 Sassy Susie- May be able to contend for Racy Rachel.

Race 13: 1 Princessoftheball- Third back and can handle these after her last stalking win; 5 Lima Adore- Moves up, but is improving with Lasix; 6 She’sa Town Girl- Drops back down a bit, which makes her a player; 7 Jj’s Request- Harvey is heating things up of late and this way I don’t have to hit the all button.

Wednesday 6/1 - Let's avoid the June Swoon

2011-05-29T11:19:00.000-07:00

Interesting card here. Not much top say other than remember the 410K guaranteed, 14% takeout Pick 4, where I am playing:

1247/159/2/1249= $48

Race 8: 7 Be Bop Beauty looks best, but post is an issue. Beware the Schillaci newcomer, 4 Rbs Luck, but 1 Scooter In Motion is the major threat.
Race 9: Love 9 Bad As Billy, although he made need a local start. One Day Wonder may have to do more work that usual, but must be used, as must 5 Wyatt, who always gives effort.
Race 10: 2 Cruise On Osborne won his last two at this level. Best Bet.
Race 11:Wide open, so we will go four deep.

Good Luck.

Hoping the weather is better

2011-05-26T09:11:00.001-07:00

After tornado warnings Monday when part of the grandstand was cleared, and then a power outage/massive storm with flooding forced cancellation Wednesday after two races, let's hope things calm down for friday.

Good luck!

Race 1: 4 Mr Bing- Love the fresh hands angle on this one, pitch the last start from 2nd tier; 6 Tansi- Best horse on paper in this one; 1 Little Lee- Solid effort in the seasonal debut.

Race 2: 4 Hardrockenjesscia- Well-connected and well-bred filly can handle these; 1 Lima Silk- Was pretty smooth in her sophomore debut; 8 Mystical Ways- Can overcome the snowman with an aggressive leave.

Race 3: 5 Cruizin At Dawn- Inconsistent, but wins with her best, and at a price; 9 Broadway Petera- Gets a catch driver, but second tier hampers her; 6 Towner’s Big Sadie- Inconsistent, but contends with her best.

Race 4: 7 Fantastic Fran- Owned this racetrack in her last stint here; 2 Jessies Band- Very consistent and seems to fit well; 4 Coupon Lady- Nice easy trip in return no bounce worries here; 3 Becausewecam- May end up cutting this one, becauseshecam.

Race 5: 4 Northern Opal- Was it the Lasix or the pace that resulted in last week’s fast effort? 1 Shelbys Muneymaker- Returned like she had never been away; 3 Storms Never Last- Seems appropriately named.

Race 6: 4 Darting Larkin- Moves up with a positive form cycle; 1 Radiant Star- Usually hangs around, especially from the inside; 2 Tina Starzzz- Has faced better at Delvin’s old place.

Race 7: 3 Alhambra Bokay- 1:54.2. Really. 1 Gadjet- Will sits on the speedster’s back and prompt her throughout; 6 Getherdone Sue- Racing well, but draws farther outside than I would like; 5 Emma Rose Ben- Most consistent of these gets fresh hands.

Race 8: 1 One Starry Night- Wasn’t a bad qualifier for this Northfield-bred; 8 Irwin- I really like him, but he may not overcome the snowman; 9 Count Dracula- Form has gone a bit south of late, but may get a good trip.

Race 9: 3 Myoneandonly- Gets a lukewarm call here off the driver improvement; 1 April Fool Days- Must consider from the rail after a string of bad draws; 7 Sassy Susie- Maybe Charlino will help.

Race 10: 9 Sunrise Sunset- She’s done everything but win lately, maybe tonight’s the night; 1 Lisa Character- Class relied and the rail are huge; 7 Winsmith Delight- was right in it two back at this level with the trainer in the bike, now gets Charlino; 6 Hf Velmas- Stahl chose the class-dropper over #5 and #7. I disagree.

Race 11: 2 Diehl’s Deal- Should ease on down the road at every call in this one; 4 Mom’s Looker- Class-dropper has really leveled lately, but still figures; 8 Master Lad Pro- Leaves aggressively, finds two hole, tires a bit late.

Race 12: 6 Lima Adore- Has raced much better since the barn change and Lasix addition; 1 Jenabell- First time Charlino and a rail at the bottom class; 4 Deena- Needed the last start after the injury scratch, strong player.

Race 13: 9 Saratoga’s Best- Was awesome in her previous stint here and is in cheap; 2 Rhino- Better post in a third back means he could horn in on the action; 5 Soul Redeemer- Stahl choosing to the Sherman-trainee is no big deal here; 6 I Am Samsational- Double class drop may help her a great deal.

Wednesday, May 25, 2011, in case you missed The Rapture

2011-05-23T07:55:00.000-07:00

First off, thanks to all of you for your prayers and wishes during Mrs. Giss's surgery. She is doing very well and pissed that the Dr won't let her do more yet (which is no surprise to those of you who know her)

This card is being raced on our 25th anniversary, so I will not be watching it. Considering there are a bazillion NW$600L5 heats AND I have picked three horses from the eight hole, that may not be a bad idea.

Here is a Pick 4 ($10K guarantee and 14% takeout):
156/4569/8/1369=$48

Analysis:
Race 8: Pretty wide open here. 5) Be Bop Beauty will be favored, but I like 1)Scooter In Motionj a bit and 6)Askpedia can't be dismissed.
Race 9: 9)Clayton Delaney has the back class, but it's a first start back off a layoff. 4) Rose run Freddie is racing better over his last few, as is Call Me Merkle. 6)Yesternite is a breaker who could upset the apple cart with a flat mile
Race 10: A very risky single in 8) S F Dynamite, but Stahl chose him over the 1 (and the 6). Has been competitive in what is really "beyond category" races and shows the good local qualifier.
Race 11: Gonna spread out again in a wide-open race. Don't really like 6) Ge's Gilmour- Delaware horses tend to be failures in their Northfield debuts, but there are a lot of question marks. Will 9)S F Stampede show interest if not on top, what will Swartz do with 1)Cousin Mikey. And so it goes. Good Luck.

Race 1: 8 High Gear Speed- risky choice from the snowman, but on paper this one appears several lengths the best in competitive miles; 1 Iliad Lite- With a flat mile, which is a big if; 3 Lotsa Help- Has leveled lately, but still figures.

Race 2: 1 Cummingsandgoings- Just hunch, had no chance in local debut; 5 Leanto Prayer- Tough trip in last, but The Mullet is improving; 4 Jh Action- Moves up off a game win which was better than the line shows.

Race 3: 9 Guile’s Boy- Gets the call as one of two NW1L8; 5 Samcin- The other one, but he appears a few steps slower; 1 Liltycantbedenied- Has more speed than he has shown lately and he may cut the fractions.

Race 4: 8 Phagus Hall- Tough trip in last is like saying Custer’s trip to Little Bighornj was tough; 2 Currently Flying- Only with a price and only because of Noble; 7 Raging Bull- Always does work, will he be close enough to be relevant? 1 Powerful Cam- Seems to be a rail contender despite moving back up.

Race 5: 4 Tidewater Tiki Tai- Catch driver made a huge difference last time and this one has license to go forward; 1 Ava Marie Cam- Came down to me choosing Noble over Majeski; 2 Aggressive Guy- Nice seasonal debut.

Race 6: 1 Red Radar Gun- Charlie, leave, then you won’t jam him up; 9 Red Raider- Very consistent, but hasn’t won since the namesake camp closed; 7 Llc- Maybe fresh hands will push him over the top.

Race 7: 4 Firm Jet- Gets class relief- first tag- and Noble. That should do it; 1 Mr Ballistic- Didn’t blow up in local debut, so things look Rosy for him; 3 Suited n Booted- Continues to do work but not sustain it, one day, maybe; 2 Right On Target- Decent frosh gets a competitive draw in his second sophomore start.

Race 8: 5 Be Bop Beauty- Should graduate from the class tonight; 1 Scooter In Motion- Speedster seems the main competition from the rail; 6 Askpedia- Solid on-the-boarder has teased us in the win column.

Race 9: 9 Clayton Delaney- Was racing well when they quit and picked right back up with the Q; 4 Rose Run Freddie- Form is moving upward & he is a solid player; 5 Call Me Merkle- Raced like he was primed in last, a tell?

Race 10: 8 S F Dynamite- Massive class dropper is my third snowman pick of the night. Shocking. 1 Rapid Pursuit- Will quickly follow the choice; 2 Go Cowboy Go- May be leveling off the barn change, we’ll see- Noble chose over 3/4/7; 5 Auto Pilot- Needs to maintain his speed and maybe get a breather somewhere.

Race 11: 9 S F Stampede- May get a very good trip behind Cousin Mikey but should not be favored; 1 Cousin Mikey- Monster mile last time, will he bounce? 3 Ideal Ticket- Best draw since Bin Laden was alive.

Race 12: 2 Western Empire- Has shown some slight work now and then; 1 Spur’s Arturo- Does moderate work occasionally; 7 Nascart- Does a little bit of work, but not regularly and draws poorly.
Race 13: 3 Aliquippa- Could just as easily be Monaca or Economy, solid player; 1 Ata Ata- The rail makes him a player; 5 Wildridge Star- Third back and improved post off two good efforts; 9 I’ve Got Life- Ata Ata may carry the classy old guy a long way.

Monday not (Memorial Day)

2011-05-20T12:01:00.000-07:00

Kind of weird that I have full wireless access in a hospital waiting room (Mrs. Giss getting some surgery) and that I can "do business as normal," whatever normal is.

Pick 4:

My comments came back to crush me Wednesday night as the last horse I dropped won in the first leg (where I said I wished I could go deeper) and then hit the last three. Ouch.

345/126/14/13= $36
34/126/14/3= $12 Total invested $48

Race 8: 5)Red White And Crue is the key. He was scratched sick after one of the fastest miles of the year at Northfield. In tough, probably needs a stary, but can't leave off.
Race 9: This is a screwy morning line, but 2) At Daybreak looks best to me in a wide-open race. #1 Alakazam Mike nearly surprised last week and Artistic Dreamer figures despite a less than optimal draw.
Race 10: I love 4)Sharp Shuttle, but the soft effort at Scioto forces me to use 1) Stand N Shout as well. He will be forward early in case the choice falters.
Race 11: Looks to be a two-horse race, but 3)Forever Friendly gets Noble back and bids for three-in-a-row, but 1)Dm Fatboy Slim is also sharp.

Here's the whole card. Good luck.

Race 1: 8 Wild Pitch- Snowman hurts, but this is not the strongest group of maidens ever assembled; 5 Angel Samantha- A hunch; 3 Little Lee- May not Stahl after an okay qualifier.

Race 2: Imagine Freedom- Generally races well when he draws well. She does, she should; 3 Sweet She Rolls- Thought about putting the maiden on top; 4 Mr Kite- Back class but bad current form.

Race 3: 7 Count Dale- Should win if he minds his manners; 9 Mr Bing- Last week was better than it looked, on the ticket here, not a win threat; 2 Macao- Improved from Q to Q to 1st start, should keep going forward.

Race 4: 3 Shackleton Hanover- Always does work and must be considered; 2 On The Shady Side- Moves up in very good form; 4 Class Worker- Has raced well since Charlino took over, NW1L8; 6 Dr Jacks Shack- Could not sustain huge effort last time, consider.

Race 5: 6 Dunktser- Class will win out in this competitive group; 5 Lookslikefire- Was super impressive his in last, will he bounce? 2 Master Wheels- Always does moderate work.

Race 6: 5 Dragoninthekash- Lukewarm call here off the class drop; 2 Pacificam- Gets Charlino in third start for Edwards; 6 Slade Gram- Most consistent of these despite the accident.

Race 7: 4 Lee A Bryant- Impressed me in his last start, may be “getting it,” 5 Intrepid Orion- Charlino chose this one over the #7 and #9; 9 Fueled N Waiting- Good in last and Aaron won’t hurt him; 1 Zakman- Moves down and inside, both of which should help.

Race 8: 3 Eagle Jacob- I still have no idea how good he is, but I would love the ML here; 4 Jenna’s Dream- Solif player, especially with Noble; 5 Red White And Crue- Risky after he scratched sick off a monster effort,

Race 9: 2 At Daybreak- Wide open race and this one usually does good work; 6 Artistic Dreamer- Not the best post for this one; 1 Alakazam Mike- was overlooked in last and raced well.

Race 10: Sharp Shuttle- Returns home after a flat Scioto effort; 1 Stand N Shout- Will be on the point, but will he last; 8 Whispers Art- May be the best horse and will close from far back; 6 Lawsuit- Big move back up, but he can play with these off his best.

Race 11: 3 Forever Friendly- Is racing very well right now and fits well here; 1 Dm Fatboy Slim- Can protect t he rail, which makes him a player; 5 Scoozi- In good form against lesser, the move up is an issue.

Race 12: Lrs Mamas Boy- Newcomer can contend for connections who are pretty sharp first out; 1 Ben’s Big Bird- Raced well in return off a four-month freshening; 3 Winter’s Finali- Has raced well for Aaron, but needs a breather.

Race 13: 1 Here’s Hooter- Rail and Charlino in a group dominated by NW1L8s; 2 Royal Tattler- Racing as consistently as he ever has and Noble won’t hurt; 4 Up Front Northern- Has some back class and should be on the ticket; 7 Laughing Is An Art- Only because Aaron chose him.

Funny Friday of mostly fillies

2011-05-18T12:07:00.000-07:00

This is an odd card. Several races I wouldn't touch with a 10 foot pole (or a 12 foot Hungarian - my grandfather's, of blessed memory, favorite joke). Others that have apparent standout value plays and some that are just very competitive.
Hoping I will be home from the hospitable to watch these on the 'puter (Mrs. Giss is going in for some minor surgery), and it's the first time in awhile I have really felt that way. Good luck!

Race 1: 3 Mom’s A Hustler- Woke up a bit with the class relief & gets hot, fresh hands; 6 Mystical Ways- Continues her consistent form run, but hasn’t been winning; 2 Iliad Lite- Has shown signs of improvement and may surprise.

Race 2: 1 The Count- Slight call with Wyatt choosing over the #2; 2 Gate Keeper- Rebounded last week, but Wyatt chose off; 4 Wild Nordic- Has raced well since Joey picked up the lines and must be considered.

Race 3: 3 Stand Out Girl- Let’s try the “barn change” angle in a race with little to recommend it; 1 Happy Occasion- Let’s try the “fresh hands” and “rail” angle; 5 Sophia- She gets the “fresh horse” angle. I’m desperate in this one.

Race 4: 6 Shelbys Muneymaker- Current form is awful, but she should beat these on memories alone; 1 Blueridge Empress- Has enough speed to protect the rail; 4 Jjs Request- No shot from the last post, let’s see if she can compete at NW$200PS; 6 Doowrah Silver- Moves up but does it on a very positive uptick in form.

Race 5: 5 Brewing Master- Lippiatt calls on a catch-driver. That’s enough for me; 6 Leantoprayer- moves into straight NW2, but is consistent enough to be on the ticket; 1 Irwin- Tough debut in the Sires Stakes, rail helps.

Race 6: 2 Candy Apple Miss- Tactical change nearly worked last time, it may work here; 3 Hula Lu- Road trouble in last or would be riding a nice on-the-board streak; 6 Jenabell- Looking for value, but she is inconsistent.

Race 7: 9 Tt’s Little Lass- A slight call in a very competitive race; 4 Gadjet- Does solid work, but Wyatt chose to the #9; 8 Miss Big Time- Form warrants her inclusion, snowman post not so much; 5 Precious Lass- A tough one to figure what to do, she could easily win this one, but only bad recent line is in this class.

Race 8: 9 I’m Over The Top- Gets class relief and a perfect trip, but may need a local start; 1 One Day Wonder- Will cut this one out with the choice right behind; 7 Rose Run Mac- May continue to forward, he’s 7-11 lifetime.

Race 9: 4 Alhambra Bokay- Has come back with a vengeance off the freshening; 9 Storms Never Last- has been knocking at the door and should again here; 3 I Am Samsational- Risky after two tough trips and bad results.

Race 10: 2 Rock-n-patty- Decent qualifier and history shows she can go with these at first asking; 4 On The Money- Raced well jumping up three classes and fits here; 1 Liveandinconcert- Should get a similar trip to last week’s winning one; 7 Becausewecam- Back at a level where she can compete, if she can overcome the post.

Race 11: 1 Jarmoto- Lanny calls on trotting expert to be Sugg-cessful here; 6 Master Lad Pro- has been solid of late’ 4 Audit- A classy mare, she drops down slightly but may not be ready to be these yet.

Race 12: 5 Jetstreamjazziecam- A hunch. She has been improving with Mapes; 1 Dream Misty- Doesn’t make up much ground, but from the rail may not have to; 7 Eradikate- Soph filly faces a tough group, but has ability.

Race 13: 5 Lima Adore- Looked like a totally different animal coming off the sick scratch, rolls with a similar effort; 2 Hawthorne Maria- Drops to the level of her last win, a rare angle at this level these days; 1 Sassy Susie

Wednesday 5/18- A playable Pick Four

2011-05-16T08:58:00.000-07:00

Even though I am not wild about the 8th race, this Pick 4 looks like it has some potential, so we will attack it.

1359/19/123/69- $48

Analysis

8th race: In my real (no budget limit) play, I would hit the all button, but without a logical single, I am kind of stuck.
9th race: 9)Vaniscape will get a perfect trip behind 1)Shark Lover who loves the front and gets his first decent draw since Zach Galifinakis's last haircut. (That's a really long time)
10th race: The inside three all have recent wins against lesser and show good form. the 7)Bell's Panacea worries me, even with Tye driving, and the 9)Perfect Door was a good horse once, Did the win at the bottom wake him up?
11th race: I was very tempted to single 9)Be Bop Beauty, which would have allowed me to go deeper elsewhere, but Zhihong Pang has been stuck in some fats miles and could be a sleeper.

Here are the rest of the picks. Good luck.

Race 1: 4 Mega Man- May improve now that he has a start under his belt. A value, but won’t be 12-1; 3 Northmedo Hoo-ray- Was roughed up a bit in his last; 6 Llc- As consistent as they come, but not winning and doesn’t draw well.

Race 2: 1 Rose Run Freddie- Solid player after good efforts from bad posts recently; 3 Catch K D- Third start back and triple class drop; 6 Come Along Fred- may not suffer with Sugg choosing off as he gets Noble.

Race 3: 4 Go Go Osborne- Not racing badly, juts not racing well enough, another chance; 2 Aggressive Guy- Decent qualifier and may be ready to step up while moving down; 5 Billy the Kiddo- Improving and should contend.

Race 4: 9 Christmas Photo K- I have to pick someone to win, so why not; 2 Three Sox Missing- Has earned checks in three of last four, the best of these; 7 Ata Ata- Has fallen off the map with the b ad draws and gets another one here; 1 Better Hustle- The rail is always a playable angle in this class.

Race 5: 4 Suited n Booted- Can consider back with a decent post position; 3 Jetstream Cruising- Overdue, but needs to do more work; 8 Tidewater Tiki Tai- Trying to figure out why Noble picked her over the #4.

Race 6: 4 Skit Er Done- Impressed in her last start and may be even better; 2 Acoustic Hanover- Showed big improvement with a top driver in last; 5 S F Spiderman- Racing very well, but draws a bit outside the other two.

Race 7: 9 Tactical Dreamer N- Gets class relief and Stahl, who chose over #3; 4 Search The Falcon- Form cycle is on an upswing and adds value; 6 Irish Raider- Nearly overcame a ridiculous trip at 1-2 last time, no guarantee this trip will be much better; 3 Dm Ion- Big wakeup call at the bottom, start of a trend?

Race 8: 9 Danny-0- Lukewarm call in an ice-cold bunch; 1 Redzilla- Has ability, but is 0-15 this year; 3 Valentino‘s Peace- one of only two 2011 winners in this year’s field and must be considered.

Race 9: 1 Shark Lover- A rail after drawing 9-7-8-8-6-9; 9 Vaniscape- Should get a perfect trip behind my choice; 2 Guile’s Boy- Very, very consistent and wraps up the trifecta of NW1L8.

Race 10: 3 Crown Time Rambo- Post hurt him last time, but he’s very sharp; 1 Rapid City- Has always been better on the engine, but last start is a concern; 7 Bell’s Panacea- Just a hunch that he can contend with these, even with Tye driving; 2 Sleek Fish- Finally timed his move properly and moves up off a win.

Race 11: 9 Be Bop Beauty- Super sharp and still has a couple starts in this class left; 6 Zhihong Pang- Generally does work, but can’t pick him to win at 0-17; 1 Scooter In Motion- Moves up off an impressive maiden win.

Race 12: 6 Ben’s Big Bird- Lightly raced, but qualified pretty well; 5 I’ve Got Life- Went backwards after pulling in last, should be tighter here; 8 E C K- Two on the board finishes in last six is more than the rest of the field combined.

Race 13: 5 Triggerhappyfellow- Third back after two very good closing efforts; 9 Nascart- Always hhangs around and this may be the kind of group to wake him up; 4 Heremy’s Chaser- Seems to like the Route Eight oval a bit better than Washington, PA; 1 Hickory Hunter- Has a bit of tactical speed and can wrap the super from the rail.

I Don't Care if Monday's Blue (5/16)

2011-05-13T11:38:00.000-07:00

I like this card so much I may actually head out for at least a few races. good luck!

Here is your Pick 4. 410K guaranteed pool and just a 14% takeout.

Northfield, Monday 5/16, Pick 4 Races 8-11

A tough night Wednesday, but those things happen.

Tonight's play:
1379/1/1239/149= $48

Race 8: A tough race because there is very little legit speed, so we need to go deeper than i would like.

Race 9: I am not sure how good 1)Eagle Jacob is, but my gut says we haven't seen his best and he basically beat the saqme group last time. Plus he gets the rail.

Race 10: Would like to go deeper here, too. 9)Free For Life has had local success and should add value; 1)Get And Gone is a bit of a pack animal but must be used from the rail; 3)Zipsnapsndrop is streaky and can handle the move up and 2) Hummer N always does work, but hasn't been winning lately.

Race 11: 4) Magical New Day has huge upside and could be singled, but he might bounce after a big OSS mile; 1) Blue My Mind has good tactical speed and will be in striking range; 9) Expresso Forte will get away well behind the rail horse and needs to find a way into the cover flow.

Here is the entire card. Good luck.

Race 1: 3 Mr Bing- Showed two moves in an improved effort last time; 9 Wild Pitch- Followed fast horses, but still a player; 1 Endless Vacation- Needed the safe trip last time and can close to contend with these.

Race 2: 1 Bodandy Andy- Another chance after a disappointing finish; 6 Rapid Pursuit- Faces tougher than he has locally, but figures with a trip; 2 Forever Friendly- May be ignored at the windows with the switch to Robin.

Race 3: 8 China Fame- Has a fast win here and has been facing much better elsewhere; 7 Iknowwhatboyslike- Is sharp as a tack right now; 6 Not To Be Denied- Interesting story here, could be anything in his first start back.

Race 4: 2 Winter’s Finali- Raced gamely with the switch to Aaron; 1 Speak To Me Easy- Just a hunch he will be better 2nd time GGG; 4 Goodnite Wilbur- Best draw in nearly two months; 9 Royal Tattler- Can save ground and get a small piece of this.

Race 5: 9 Chang Dynasty- Gets class relief as a NW1L8 and has raced well against better; 4 Go Cowboy Go- Has gone forward since the move to the Ehrhardt barn; 2 Fancy Schmansy- The better draw really helps him.

Race 6: 7 Cruise On Osborne- Was racing very well here before trying Mea5/8; Launch Angle- has been facing better, but the snowman is a killer; 3 Caramel Dumpling- Has not gotten in gear well at this level, but must consider.

Race 7: 2 S F Stampede- NW1L8 gets class relief and a good draw; 6 Phagus Hall- Always contends, but hasn’t been winning; 1 Backbeat Hall- Seems to be bravening up a bit; 9 Laughing Is An Art- Current form iffy, but historically has done well with Aaron driving.

Race 8: 1 Doowrah’s Deal- Huge post improvement may result in a huge result improvement; 3 Spellbinder- How will he deal with the change in scenery? 9 Blue Time Overdue- Likes being inside and had excuses last two.

Race 9: 1 Eagle Jacob- Not sure how good he is, but similar effort to last two wins this; 4 Artistic Dreamer- raced well from the snowman and should be better here; 5 Heza Firecracker- Will be on the point, but will he last?

Race 10: 9 Free For Life- Loves this racetrack and this is a good level for him; 1 Get And Gone- Rail helps for owner/driver Stahl; 3 Zipsnapndrop- Moves up in very good form; 2 Hummer N- third back and has raced well off the sick scratch.

Race 11: 4 Magical New Day- May bounce, but have to put him on top off those miles; 1 Blue My Mind- Should get a very good trip for the Deli-man; 9 Expresso Forte- always gives effort and cannot be ignored.

Race 12: 2 Dm Fatboy Slim- Good draw and no Eagle Jacob here; 5 Slade Gram- Aaron chose off, but Gris suits him well, will add value; 7 Salteas Sanjay- Versatile and rounding back into form.

Race 13: 2 Dr Jacks Shack- Had no trouble moving up to this level and now draws better; 9 No Escape N- Gets class relied and should do a little bit more late than he has been; 6 Class Worker- Always races well for Charlino and must be used on the ticket; 5 Foo Too- Old guy likes this track and could surprise.

Friday the 13th

2011-05-11T13:21:00.000-07:00

A wide open evening of racing. This may be one of those all chalk/no chalk nights, with no middle ground. I am locking myself in a bubble for Friday the 13th, just in case. Good Luck!

Race 1: 3 My Mystique- Racing well for trottin’ man Sugg and appears a step or two fastest of these; 2 Red Raider- The other player, if Swartz improves him, the main threat; 4 Andrea Pauline- Always hangs around, no threat to win.

Race 2: 1 Date Worthy- Gets a slight call with the improved post draw; 7 Mystical Ways- Continues to draw poorly, but still race well; 2 Forever Friends- Too inconsistent to do much with, contends with her best.

Race 3: 3 Precious Lass- The line two back shows she is a player at this level and may be a value; 4 Resort Art- Monster mile at Lebanon in last, will she need a local start? 1 On The Money- Will be in the money from the rail.

Race 4: 1 Cmybest- Not sure how good this recent Stahl acquisition is. Have we Cnherbest? 9 Emma Rose Ben- Figures to get a perfect trip here; Shez Good Osborne- Is “Shez” good enough to overcome the snowman? 5 Gadjet- Very nice mare, but not sharp enough to beat these right now.

Race 5: 1 Catherinethegreat- It’s a 1-2 or a 2-1, and I think it pays better this way; 2 One Day Wonder- Like the rail horse, racing very well right now; 6 The Count- Can fly late if he trots the whole mile, but a risky one.

Race 6: 4 Paint Tina- Raced well from the snowman with Andy Wright and get Stahl tonight; 6 Jenabell- Has done big work in last two, needs to time that brush; 7 Towner’s Big Sadie- Will be in the flow and must be considered.

Race 7: 5 Can Do It Forever- Class dropper raced well for Watts last time; 1 Gram Of Gold- Moves up in relatively good form; 3 Mattress Dancing- Just a hunch; 9 Sunrise Sunset- The only NW1L8 is reunited with her regular pilot.

Race 8: 4 Swing Anna Cash- Has had another month to train down, ignore at you own risk; 6 Brewing Master- Was not “ale”ing in a “stout” performance on Sires opener; 1 Count Howie- His heat was 20 lengths faster than the #6’s.

Race 9: 6 Marilyn B- Top Maine performer gets a soft group for the class & can win at 1st asking; 2 Royal Cam Osborne- Was much improved 2nd try at this level; 3 Jetstreamjazziecam- has been facing better & woke up in last.

Race 10: 3 Sassy Susie- That’s what the dartboard says, wide open; 5 Friendly Kathy- Nearly picked her to win and she still might; 2 Stonebridge Beauty- Inconsistent, but gets Lasix which could help; 1 Attack On The Town- Post helps her a great deal.

Race 11: 9 Legacy Chip- Drops below the level of several competitive miles recently; 1 Master Lad Pro- Best form of these, but has been doing it against lesser; 5 Diehl’s Deal- Gets another chance from me, albeit a slight one.

Race 12: 5 Stox Up Bluegrass- Very sharp right now and seems the best here; 1 Storms Never Last- Has just missed in her last two, a big factor; 7 Queen Aliceanna- Could surprise if she overcomes this draw,

Race 13: 3 Doowrah Silver- Almost survived a tough trip last time, improving form cycle; 5 Medoland Kendall- We can at least count on her to do some work; 9 Mach n Cookies- On the ticket, but not much more based on recent efforts; 1 Freenesdowntheroad- Gets class relief, but her current form is awful.

Welcome Wednesday with a $10K Guaranteed Pick Four

2011-05-09T11:49:00.000-07:00

Post script to my Mint Julep rant. I am in the liquor store over the weekend because #1 son wants to buy mom (my first and current wife) a bottle of her fave vodka for Mother's Day. So i head up and notice that they have Makers Mark (a good wheated bourbon) in a gift box with two wax-dipped rocks glasses for the same price as a bottle. #1 son and I were at the Makers Mark Distillery in Loreto, KY in March and nearly bought the glasses in the gift shop at $7.95 each. So I add that to my order. Guy behind me orders a bottle of Makers Mark. I mention the glasses deal. "Not interested." What if I pay you $5 and you give me the glasses (Never know when you might need a set of four). He says no thanks, and I figure what the heck. Now, here's where it gets weird. The clerk says he can sell me some of the glasses at $5 a set of two. Should I 1)Buy the glasses 2)Report him to his boss for stealing 3)Give him a strong suggestion to rethink the offer? My answer is below.

Okay, on to the picks. I actually use the term jogburger tonight.

Pick 4-play
All/39/39/2=$36
And then a 56/379/39/2= $12
Yep, I am singling Joey Mapes!

Analysis- Not much to say. 8th race is impossible; 9th race, Llc is racing great but not winning and Lotsa Help draws outside; 10th race Eagle Jacob is a huge "bounce" threat so I have to back it up a bit and then Irish Raider is my single in the 11th.

Good Luck!

Race 1: 2 Possessive Power- Got my call when Stahl chose him over the #6; 6 Call Me Merkle- Seems best to me on paper, but Stahl chose off; 7 Fortune King- Only NW1L8 here will need to deal with a bad draw.

Race 2: 3 Skit Er Done- Raced well in the first seasonal local start; 1 Just For The Day-We are all over the chalk, but not by choice; 9 Leanto Prayer- Most consistent of these, must use in tris, probably not on top.

Race 3: 5 On The Shady Side- Third back off a very good effort and gets the local leading driver. Duh; 2 Be Bop Beauty- Was very impressive in last and looms the main threat; 6 Askpedia- Seems best suited for this level.

Race 4: 5 Triggerhappyfellow- Just a hunch, raced well off the sick scratch, but will be overbet; 1 Electrifying Cam- Decent little qualifier, could be anything; 9 Liltycantbedenied- Should get a pretty decent trip; 6 Cousin Mikey- Can contend for minor honors.

Race 5: 2 Thesaly- Improving and should break through here; 5 Mr Ballisitic- Never saw the pylons in the qually; 3 Jetstream Cruising- Supposed to be a decent one, inconsistent so far, fresh hands may help.

Race 6: 4 Wyatt- Double class drop off a good qualifier + Noble = Jogburger; 9 High Gear Speed- Always puts in effort and usually contends; 6 Craiger- Big class relief, but hasn’t made a nickel last six.

Race 7: 6 Go Go Osborne- Seems versatile and way faster than these; 7 the Big Jolt- I like the Lasix qualifier; 5 Ava Marie Cam- Maybe she “cam” now after getting a start under belt; 9 Western Spark- Nice Q and may surprise after a five-year freshening. Make that six years.

Race 8: 6 Perfect Door- A sucker bet, but I just don’t see anything else here who can win; 3 E C K –First time Noble, recently, anyway; 5 Pacificam- May improve in second start for the Edwards barn.

Race 9: 3 Llc- Has done everything but win in his last three and draws well; 7 Lotsa Help- Classy old guy is in good form, post hurts him; 9 Northmedo Hooray- Gets class relief after a good local debut, gosh Daumit.

Race 10: 3 Eagle Jacob- May bounce after a monster effort last time, but still have to pick him; 9 The Libberteriann- Never saw the pylons dropping to this class and gets Noble here; 6 Rabbitman- Always hangs around and seems a bottom of the ticket sort here; 5 Goin Home Ray- Not sure what to expect, let’s take a chance.

Race 11: 2 Irish Raider- Drops below the level of his last win, as cheap as he has raced in ages; 5 Currently Flying- Gets in at $199 per start and raced well last time; 1 Raging Bull- Good be better than third easily.

Race 12: 3 Capricious Art- Always does work, but when will he win one? NW1L8; 5 Belle Valley Indian- NW1L8 gets class relief here. Mullet over; 7 Ata Ata- One of the most annoying animals racing here right now. Sulker

Race 13: 1 Lawsuit- Tired late but held third as Eagle Jacob’s rabbit; 4 Jeremy’s Chaser- Gets class relief after a moderate effort in his local debut; 2 Vaniscape- Not a fan, but Noble chose him over #3, who I do like; 3 Guile’s Boy- Would like him more with Noble.

Monday feels like Saturday these days.

2011-05-06T14:08:00.000-07:00

Saturday night horses racing on Monday for the next two months. I like it.

$10K Guaranteed Pick 4 with 14% Takeout

The play:
34/2/all/2= $18 and
34/all/6/2=$18 Total play $36

Analysis- Pretty simple. Hoping to get lucky with some prices (actually a price in leg 2 or 3. Good luck.

Race 1: 3 Mega Man- First starter will be prepped for the half-mile oval; 1 Next Chip- Should be better from inside, especially with straps; 4 Macao- Got much needed experience in what appears to be a flat line in debut.
Race 2: 1 Bodandy Andy- It’s all about post in this one. He gets the best, that makes him best; 4 Blue My Mind- Solid contender after an outside draw last time; Gordieisanartist- Needs to step things up.
Race 3: 5 Forever Friendly- Only because Noble picked him, has been close lately; 2 Go Cowboy Go- My original pick gets bumped based on the Noble choice; 4 Next Idol- Drops to the level of his last win.
Race 4: 4 Backbeat Hall- Showed signs of waking up last time, but risky; 6 Little Gary Perry- May need a start after two tiring Q efforts; 3 Salteas Sanjay- Was game until very late in the mile last time; 1 Sky Strikes- Worth a flyer against these from the rail.

Race 5: 1 Ken Ubr Dream- Not sure I agree that there was “no excuse.” 4 Three Five Seven- In his best form of the last two years; 7 Crown Time Rambo- Appears to be improving and may surprise.

Race 6: 9 Brother Nick- Super sharp right now and post is no obstacle to his style; 7 Benn’s Thunder-Josh picked him and he is almost as sharp and my to pick; 8 Iknowwhatboyslike- Love the horse, hate the post. Simple.

Race 7: 7 Intrepid Orion- Longshot special, Charlino chose over #1 and #4 who both figure on paper; 1 Supreme Ruler- Was my top pick until he wasn’t Daniel’s; 2 S F Stampede- Has a chance if robin leaves; 3 Dr Jacks Shack- Went forward first time Aaron, will need to deal with a big jump in class.

Race 8: 3 Gramma’s Guy- Was my second choice until the driver choices came out; 9 Shackleton Hanover- Drops on my ticket, sans Dan; 4 Gina Marie P- A worker, which makes her worthy of consideration.

Race 9: 2 Worries Stay Small- Raced well here in Lasix debut; 6 Cruisinfullthrottle- Had him on to with Aaron driving; 9 Sharp Shuttle- Usually races well, but can be a victim of trip and pace.

Race 10: 6 Jackson One- Can upset these with a good trip and two moves; 3 Red White And Crue- Snowman cost him any chance, pitch the last line; 1 Jenna’s Dream- Gets the rail and Grismore chose over Kinnick; 8 Gordie How- Not sure he can overcome the snowman here, but is racing very well.

Race 11: 2 Category Six- Moves up a bit, but draws well and keeps Aaron; 1 Whiteascanbe- Needed the last start and has always raced well inside; 4 Shannons Boy Scout- Gets another chance in (for him) rarefied air.

Race 12: 2 Scoozi- Outdraws the other major players; 7 Pan Au Chocolat- Tired off blistering fractions but gets fresh hands here; 3 Pembroke Touch- Moves up and can contend if he steers.

Race 13: 9 Race Track Cruiser- NW1L8 gets my lukewarm call; 7 Winter’s Finali- Rachel K. to Aaron M. may pick him up slightly; 3 Green Acres Pill- Horse is a tease, but must be considered; 1 Heez Ruthless N- Classy old guy can get a small piece from the rail.

Final Friday Pick Four w/Guarantee (and the other races, too)

2011-05-04T12:25:00.000-07:00

The $10K Guarantee will be on just Monday and Wednesday cards starting next week.

The Play:
249/458/13/15=$36
and 24/458/4/15=$12, total invested $48

Analysis:
Race 8: I am tempted to single 4)Queen Aliceanna here, but she can get collared late and the two and the nine are the likely suspects.
Race 9: 8)S F Spiderman is clearly the best horse, but he draws the snowman. 4)Jo impressed me in his debut Saturday and may step up, 5)Drift Away just needs to keep trotting
Race 10: 3)Famed Artist shows little, but somehow I keep coming back to him. 1) St Jated Strike is a major player from he rail. 4)Polo Aub is my ? horse...I need to use her, but I am not a fan, so we use her as a saver.
Race 11: 5)Campside Angel is getting her legs under her and closed gamely for Swarts last time, while 1)C R Dream has been a tease lately, but will get an aggressive trip with fresh hands.

Good Luck.

Race 1: 3 Gadjet- Russ’s pick over the #1. May the Swartz be with you; 1 Tt’s Little Lass- Solid player draws well & looks good, but driver choice angle is big; 2 Precious Lass- Moves up in exceptional form and must be considered.

Race 2: 6 Less Stress- Disappointed in local debut, but gets class relief for John Ryan here; 2 Altesse- Has faced better with some success, but Buff horses often need a start here; 1 Red Raider- Another NW1L8, very consistent.

Race 3: 4 Miss Big Time- Tried to get her beat, but didn’t see an angle that would do it; 1 Theresa’s Princess- Gets fresh hands and the rail; 7 Jellyfish Joy- A bit of a backward step last time but she can add value to this ticket.

Race 4: 1 Towner’s Big Sadie- Wyatt jumps off #9 to drive, rail helps here; 4 Back Home Again- I’m very interested to see how the Headworth-Hollar combo works out, I think fresh hands make it a positive; 5 Jjs Request- Can I request a stronger finish, please? 2 Broadway Petera- third back, good post and should improve.

Race 5: 9 Jimi’s Little Wing- Raced well in her return and Wyatt picked over #1/2/8; 6 Hollysfolly- Consistent and I think Schillaci fits her well; 1 Vivacious Raider- Inconsistent and seems to lack gate speed, but must consider.

Race 6: 6 Talented Flyer- Moves up off the bottom win, but a similar effort gets her home here; 1 Musical Dream- Will protect the rail; 8 Mystical Ways- Arguably the best horse, but clearly the worst post.

Race 7: 2 Doowrah Silver- Hollar-Headworth again, by now look for a trend; 1 I Am A Laag- Showed improvement with Swartz last time; 4 Gram Of Gold- At $48.86, may be worth a shot off the qualifier, commodity traders; 7 Sassy Tempest- Just a hunch she’ll be “Koching” for Kenny.

Race 8: 4 Queen Aliceanna- Was very tempted to single her in the Pick-4; 9 Miss Port Foal Leo- Racing well, but needs to find a way to overcome the second tier; 2 Stox Up Bluegrass- Maybe the better draw will help.

Race 9: 8 S F Superman- May need to be faster than a speeding bullet to overcome the snowman; 5 Drift Away- Give me the beat, boys and free my soul; 4 Jo- Impressed in career debut with an explosive move.

Race 10: 3 Famed Artist- A very suspect group and this one has been freshened; 1 St Jated Strike- Streaky, but double jumps off that win; 4 Polo Aub- Must be considered, pitch the last line; 2 She’sa Town Girl- Always hangs around, but needs to do a little bit more than she has been.

Race 11: 5 Campside Angel- Closed well in last, first with Russ; 1 C R Dream- Has a move in her and will get a needed aggressive trip; 3 Storms Never Last- Tell THAT to Betsy Kling, usually does good work.

Race 12: 6 Admirals Diamond- Class-dropper gets a driver, but may need a local start; 5 Sunrise Sunset- When did she get to be a beauty? Consider; 2 Mattress Dancing- Best post this year.

Race 13: 6 Hula Lu- Koch chose over the #4, she’s consistent, but rarely wins; 4 Cruizin At Dawn- My initial pick until Kenny chose off, but at least she has a decent career strike-rate; 3 Darting Larkin- races well when she draws well. She does, she should; 2 Matt-scoot-n-bunny- Bes

Wacky Wednesday and a Kentucky Derby suggestion

2011-05-02T12:13:00.000-07:00

$10K Guaranteed Pick 4-play. Gonna try to hit it for $2:
15/169/123/12=$36
15/69/123/1- $12

Analysis:
Race 8: Soul Redeemer is a major player from the rail and although Noble Thought hasn't won recently, his current form means he must be used.

Race 9: Not wild about any of these, and you might consider going deeper here.

Race 10: Noble was listed on nearly every horse, but chose 1) Medoland Tess. Phagus hall keeps running into horses making monster efforts and Zipsnapndrop showed he may be back with his win at the bottom last week.

Race 11: 1) Go Cowboy Go is first-time in the Ehrhardt barn, which is about money in the bank, even though he may not look it on paper. Not like Dan Noble hurts you here 2)Auto Pilot has back class and finally won a race last start, which makes him a scary competitor.

The Kentucky Derby is Saturday. Tradition states that you drink mint juleps on this day. A mint julep is a drink that encourages you to take the finest whiskey ever invented, bourbon, and ruin it with crushed mint leaves and sugar water. Sugar water? Even Woodford Reserve, one of the top, if overpriced bourbons made, encourages this travesty. Here is a simple fact. The mint julep must be made with cheap bourbon, in order to make it remotely drinkable. Better yet, make it with Scotch. But if you must, here is my recipe for a perfect mint julep.

Fill 12 oz. glass with crushed ice.
Make a simple syrup (sugar and water) and add muddled mint leaves and add to another glass.
Fill the glass with a quality bourbon. Elijah Craig 18 year is unreal, and Buffalo Trace and Elijah Craig 12 year are quality bourbons at reasonable price.
Now, take the simple syrup and pour it into your room humidifier. You will get just a hint of the mint flavor in the air without ruining the bourbon.

Glad I could help. Here are the rest of the picks

Race 1: 6 Audit- Has a ton of back class and the local debut was a good one; 5 Jarmoto- Love the eligible-at-time-of-entry angle, but the 6 is much better; 1 Rockin H Royal Dot- Sugg chose over the 3, why not look for a price?

Race 2: 2 Celebrity Wonder- NW1L8 and class relief puts him atop my ticket; 6 Llc- Moving into a positive form cycle and has always been streaky; 3 Redzilla- Shows some good work at this level.

Race 3: 5 Catherinethegreat- Gets the ETE angle off a lifetime best; 4 Medoland Jesse- Gets along well with Noble, or vice versa; 2 Diehl’s Deal- Has more claims than a shrimp fisherman in Louisiana.

Race 4: 3 Blueridge Empress- We won’t see Eligible-at-time-of-entry much with the new draw schedule, so let’s jump on it one last time; 4 Electric Highlight- NW1L8 always hangs around; 5 Moon River Dell- Was decent in his return and may improve; 7 Triggerhappyfellow- Very lukewarm choice from outside and off a sick scratch.

Race 5: 1 Radiant Star- Gets the rail and our Angle Du Jour (or is that angle De La Nuit?) 6 Jenabell- Gets fresh hands with Noble for Josh; 5 Scoot To The Top- Another chance after the free-legged break.

Race 6: 3 One Day Wonder- Had nearly as good an April as the Indians, moves up, should still win; 2 Benn’s Thunder- Also moves up in good form; 5 Count Dracula- Closes moderately every start, on the ticket only.

Race 7: 4 Dm Fatboy Slim- NW1L8 gets a slight call since he has won a couple this year and current form is good; 7 Ata Ata- Tough trip in last and now gets Noble, post hurts; 1 Eagle Jacob- Could be just about anything from the rail; 2 Lawsuit- Needed the last start and should finish better with a red-hot Kurt Sugg,

Race 8: 1 Soul Redeemer- Veteran is a different animal from the rail; 5 Noble Thought- Good current form, but where are the wins? 4 Little Big Man Vmw- Had faced better and qualifier wasn’t bad.

Race 9: 9 High Gear Speed- Always gives effort and finds a group he can handle here; 6 Sandblast- Has back class and must be considered this cheap; 1 Corporate Politics- Gets the rail and has stalking speed.

Race 10: 1 Medoland Tess- Noble listed on the #1/#4/#5/#6/#8/#9, he chose this one. “nuff said. 3 Zipsnapndrop- Moves up off a very good win; 2 Phagus Hall- Always does work and must be considered; 4 Fancy Schmansy- Has been the most consistent I ever remember lately.

Race 11: 1 Go Cowboy Go- First time Ehrhardt, gets Noble and a the rail; 2 Auto Pilot- Finally got the first seasonal win and may start racing better; 6 House Of Green- Just a hunch.

Race 12: 2 I’ve Got Life- Classy old guy has come back fresh the last few years; 3 Samcin- Will challenge for the front; 1 Western Eddie- Drops back down to the level of his last win, but current form is suspect.

Race 13: 9 Deena- Has the best current form, there are enough non-winners that 0-11 isn’t that big a minus and Sugg chose over 2 and 5; 2 On The Money- Was easily in the money dropping to this level; 5 You Never Let Go- Sort of, kind of a third back angle and gets Stahl; 4 Medoland Kendall- Inconsistent, but fresh hands may help.

Monday- Add a $10K Guaranteed pick 4.

2011-05-01T16:52:00.000-07:00

With Northfield dropping Saturdays, this week only, 410K guarantee on Monday-Wednesday-Friday, going to Monday-Wednesday starting May 9.

We are hitting these Pick fours, but not making much money lately. I am hoping to change that starting Monday.

The Play- 13/2347/129/13= $48

Analysis:

In race 8, Alliance Hall is the clear choice, but Master Lad Pro is in very good form. The other contenders are "on the ticket" horses, not winners.
In race 9, I am tempted to single Go Go Osborne, but these youngsters can step up at any time, so we protect ourselves by going relatively deep.
In race 10, Ron Jeremy seems to stand out, but is only 1-15 this year, so we need to protect the ticket, especially since Dickie Tad is not much of a leaver. Those two will likely be 1st and 2nd up.
In race 11, Caprcious Art let me down last time so I will back myself up with the 31, Tieler Bea Hotspur. The rail is a great angle at this bottom class.

Here are the picks. Good luck!

Race 1: 3 Ivor Hanover- Was competitive for Noble before and get his best draw in ages; 6 Call Me Merkle- Good qually with the trainer in the bike; 8 Fortune King- Most consistent of these, snowman is a killer.
Race 2: 3 Celebrity Zelda- May be better now that she has a start over the oval; 6 Liltycantbedenied- The only NW1L8 in here, a huge angle; 5 Goodnite Wilbur- Was previously competitive with Noble driving.
Race 3: 1 S F Spiderman- Held on to beat these in last & should be even braver now; 6 Leanto Prayer- Extremely consistent, would like to see a catch driver; 3 El Paso Mama- Shows work and gets good, fresh hands.
Race 4: 1 Dr Jacks Shack- Gets a catch-driver after showing improvement in last; 6 O T’s Attack- Rebounded well off a 2½ year layoff, what’s his bottom? 2 Zihong Pang- Always contends, but rarely wins; 3 I Believe Hoye- This change to Noble thing may just work out.

Race 5: 5 Jl Stand Forward- I don’t care where he stands as long as he moves forward; 1 Suited N Booted- You’ll never guess what angle I’m looking at here; 6 Thessaly- Third start back angle, needs to finish stronger.

Race 6: 1 Lotsa Help- Racing well. He may be winless in 13, but so is all but one of the others; 2 Red Radar Gun- Historically races well fresh; 7 Red Raider- Very consistent, but a tough draw here.

Race 7: 3 Guile’s Boy- Big effort with Noble back in the bike last time; 1 Tooter Lane- Gets Charlino and the rail, that may be enough to win; 2 Laag the Mile- Drops to the level of his last win, but has been awful since; 7 Shark Lover- Gets class relief, but races off a sick scratch, so drops to fourth on my ticket.

Race 8: 3 Alliance Hall- May be returning to expectations with his last line; 1 Master Lad Pro- Versatile, the rail and they opened it up for him; 6 Less Stress- Indeed there is… indeed there is. Class dropper gets A Merriman.

Race 9: 4 Go Go Osborne- Enough in the account thanks Mr O’s other Osbornes that I can take another shot here; 3 Here To Stay- Is he really as good as his last line? 7 Yourgonnamissme- Indeed you have, and I am flattered.

Race 10: 9 Ron Jeremy- All out of porn jokes, but he appears the best here; 2 Fantastic- Class-dropper may be need a local start; 5 Winter’s Finali- He’s no Hickory Hunter, but he may get a small piece here; 1 dickie tad- Has disappointed lately, hoping it is due to recent post draws.

Race 11: 3 Capricious Art- Please steer in the lane this time. Please; 1 Tieler Bea Hotspur- I hope he does better than Tottenham has; 8 Aliquippa- Not sure he can close from out here, but worth taking a chance if he’s a big #.

Race 12: 1 Sleek Fish- Class relief and the rail, now he needs a trouble-free trip; 2 Rapid City- Needs to leave aggressively, but fits well; 3 Slade Gram- Can hang around with these.

Race 13: 4 Yankeedoodledandee- Let’s wrap up with another 1st-time Noble angle; 1 Samovar Hanover- Has tactical speed, how will he respond to the barn change? 3 Fox Valley Mavro- Gets class relief and may improve; 9 Coin Of The Realm- The only Nw1L8 in this group.

Courageous Lady Card

2011-04-28T11:38:00.000-07:00

I am so excited to be back in the tux and in the winners circle doing picks that I gave up FREE Columbus Crew tickets for Saturday. Coaching clinic at OSU Fri-Sat and then to the Flying Turns for cigars and handicapping.

Courageous Lady is interesting- Some Girls Do does not have to win the first heat, although for now I have her on top. If Mark MacDonald really switched to OK Dynasty, do not dismiss her chances! Robert Young won the Breeders Crown at Northfield with That'll Be Me (A $20 horse I gave anyone who would listen) and has a legit shot with this mare. In the 2nd heat, more wide open, but I like the Seeknman horse- she is a speedster and draws well.

Here is a Pick 4, "Bookended" by the Courageous Lady heats

2/1357/238/234=$36
26/15/36/24-$16
(Yes it's over budget, but I want to hit this baby and with the 2 in the first leg, the price will be short).

Here are the rest of the picks. Back at it live, there may be changes so watch the broadcast! Good luck!

Race 1: 2 Bo Belle- Well-connected and did some work in the seasonal debut; 1 Little Treasure- Gets a good draw and a catch-driver, which may be a “tell,” 8 Mr Bing- Just a hunch, he has some experience, but current form is poor.

Race 2: 9 Count Dale- Classic 3rd back angle doe a trotter who has done some work, 2nd tier concerns me; 4 DRIFT Away- Good qualifier and showed ability at two; 2 Tansi- Qualified for Night of Champs at two, “Q” is questionable.

Race 3: 3 Gyraider- Drops to the level of his last win and gets a lukewarm call in a very competitive group; 4 Phagus Hall- NW1L8 was second to better last time; 6 Laughing Is An Art- Look for improvement with Mark Mac in the bike.

Race 4: 4 Category Six- Gets class relief below the level of his last win and gets that Merriman guy, too; 2 Next idol- Faces slightly lesser, worth considering; 1 Scoozi- Third back, good speed and the rail, will he last? 5 Tactical Dreamer N- Gets MacDonald, but Aaron chose off, but he figures with his best.

Race 5: 4 Sharp Shuttle- Has that big closing kick & may offer some value; 7 Chang Dynasty- Gets class relief & is racing well, just not super sharp, likely overbet; 5 Shannons Boy Scout- Not sure of his bottom, but worth a chance.

Race 6: 6 Iknowhatboyslike- April 23 was a defining moment for this one; 1 Lucca’s Revenge- Will be on the point, but missed a week; 8 Rose Run Ivan- Snowman hampers him, but I don’t think we’ve seen all he has.

Race 7: 4 Whispers Art- Moves up in exceptional form; 6 Grammas Guy- Consider if Dave actually drives him, but he will be bet to nothing; 3 S F Stampede- Can hang around with these to be a bottom of the ticket animal; 1 Stand N Shout- May well be on the point, but for how long?

Race 8: Courageous Lady Division 1: 2 Some Girls Do- Has won 7 this year, the other 6 have won 2; 6 Ok Dynasty- Robert Young doesn’t ship here to lose, interesting driver switch re: Aaron & Mark Mac; 5 Hi Maintenanchic- Showed speed in 2011 debut.

Race 9: 1 Ken Ubr Dream- Arguably getting class relief, price is the key to a play; 7 Dax Hanover- Will be flying late and must be considered at a price; 5 Bodandy Andy- Form may be leveling after his last two efforts, a maybe.

Race 10: 3 Gordie How- Should be awesome after drawing 7-8-6-7-7 last five; 8 Red White And Crue- Best horse, worst post, big maybe; 9 Caramel Dumpling- Major player if he fires, may be closer early; 2 Rocco’s Revenge- Moves up in very good form.

Race 11: Courageous Lady Division 2: 2 Southwest- There’s a reason they don’t assign seats, he won’t be taking one; 4 Stash The Cash- raced well Delaware Fund races, a player; 3 I Kill Time- Good two-year-old & a couple nice qualifiers, the likely favorite.

Race 12: 3 Broadway Fame- Super-duper, ultra-consistent; 7 Pan Au Chocolat- Hasn’t missed a beat off the claim, but post hurts; 1 Mike Lanigan- Is he just a trailer filler, or with his early speed, a contender? I say the latter.

Race 13: 9 Show Me Big Slick- Nice qualifier, but may need a start or two; 4 Shackleton Hanover- Crushed by the post moving up to this level, another chance; 2 At Daybreak- Third back and a decent post, a maybe; 6 C And C Hoorah- The Stahl-Brown combination has been surprisingly good, but this is a big move up.

Friday thoughts (With the Pick Fourplay)

2011-04-27T12:41:00.001-07:00

Pick Four $10K Guaranteed and just 14% takeout.

1479/24/5/13468= $40 And
49/24/5/24=$8 and let's hope we hit it for $2 (I might even be comfortable sticking with the $2 play, but some of these horses are iffy).

Good luck!

Race 1: 5 Jarmoto- Has raced well since Lanny called on J.D., may break through tonight; 4 Betta Ona Freddie- Not racing well, but gets fresh hands; 1 Andrea Pauline- Can do enough from the rail to wrap up the trifecta.

Race 2: 4 Broadway Petera- Class-dropper may still be a start or two away from her best, but is in very soft; 6 Hula Lu- 10 of 14 on the board this year, but just one win; 5 Doowrah Silver- As consistent as Fausto Carmona lately.

Race 3: 4 Lt Commander- Has always done work racing at this class, maybe, just once, he can sustain it? 1 Wildridge Star- NW1L8, like the choice and has tactical speed; 8 Zeus’s Spirit- Big pilot change, snowman hurts.

Race 4: 4 Gadjet- Raced well dropping down and should get ‘er done here; 7 Stormy Gray Sea- Marlin Smith- Ryan Stahl, boom or bust tonight on that angle; 3 Vivacious Raider- Tough trip bouncing back up, another chance this time; 9 Hawthorne Maria- Can close and surprise a few folks with Sugg.

Race 5: 5 Osborne’s Gypsy- Just missed in her seasonal debut, not worried she’ll bounce; 3 Jellyfish Joy- Seems to be getting her legs back under her; 2 Theresa’s Princess- Beat the choice last time and barn is red-hot.

Race 6: 3 Catherinethegreat- They opened it up to $205 for her off a win; 4 Mystical Ways- Had been racing well prior to the break; 1 Count N Caloris- Wired these two back and draws as good as it gets here.

Race 7: 1 Back Home Again- Just a hunch, I have no idea why; 2 On The Money- Gets class relief as a NW1L8; 7 Radiant Star- Another class-dropper, Lasix seems not to be helping her; 5 French Worker- If I pick her, she races badly, if I don’t she excels. We all have a horse like that and she’s been mine this year.

Race 8: 4 I Give Youmy Word- Drops down to what is really her best level and may be overlooked a bit; 9 Northern Opal- Beat these with a big effort in her last start; 1 Queen Aliceanna- Needs to finish strong and should.

Race 9: 2 Paint Wheel- Slight call based on old form, none are proven at this level; 4 Becausewecam- Fast and shows work, but just three wins in last 16 months; 7 Hollysfolly- Ultra-consistent, but can she overcome the outside?

Race 10: 5 Shez Good Osborne- Best bet of the night (unless Gypsy is); 2 Miss Hkb- Gets J.D. here and can contend at this level; 1 Jetstreamjazziecam- Gets a fresh set of hands and another chance after a bad break; 7 Clarksville Jazz- Moves up in very good form, can be on the ticket.

Race 11: 1 Emma Rose Ben- Moves back up in very good form, rail is a bonus, except when we cash; 4 Campside Angel- Seems to respond to catch drivers; 6 C R Dream- Not racing badly, just needs to do a little bit more.

Race 12: 1 Mach N Cookies- Shows solid effort in this class four and six back; 5 I Love Being Right- Back at a competitive level; 3 Freenezdowntheroad- Weak final sixteenths, but has been there otherwise.

Race 13: 1 Forever A Cowgirl- Should at least see a pylon this time, right Wyatt? 9 Stonebridge Beauty- Contends with her best, not sure we will see it; 5 Darting Larkin- Inconsistent, but can break through at any time; 6 Towner;s Big Sadie- Usually gives at least moderate effort.

Wacky Wednesday with a $10K Guaranteed Pick Four

2011-04-25T09:24:00.000-07:00

Apparently I missed the announcement last week about the added guarantee. Great move and makes sense with Saturday's going away after the April 30 Courageous Lady.

Pick Four-play: 46/13467/193/9= $30
and a 46/36/139/4= $13 (saver ticket)

Analysis:
Race 8: 6)Ideal Ticket was very good against lesser with Noble three back and 4) Ge's Antonio is one of those teasers you just have to use

Race 9: Wide open group of nice young trotters. 3) Anastasia Wildfire can be her own worst enemy at times, 6)Brewing Master may need a start and I don't know what his stakes calendar looks like. These are young 'uns that can step up at any time, so I have to add a few more.

Race 10: The $2500 claimers, 1) Phagus Hall and 9) Toronado Mindale are only moving up in class nominally. The claimers are tougher than this group. Fancy Schmansy is another Millner/Kash horse that will bite you if you ignore him

Race 11: 9 Lookslikefire- Playing Kurt Sugg's choice over #1 and #8, who both figure, but since I have budget left, let's p[lay a saver with Legacy Chip, the 34, a solid claimer who is a threat every out.

Good Luck.

Race 1: 6 Wild Nordic- Drops to the level of a very good last win, but may get stung early; 4 Just Walter- Another class-dropper, but he has regressed since the claim; 2 Come Along Fred- Very consistent worker can’t be ignored.

Race 2: 7 Captain Korki- Risky off the break and outside draw, but seems best with a flat mile; 2 Llc- Monster effort last time for this one; 3 Redzilla- Just keeps hanging around and picking up checks. Will explode one day.

Race 3: 9 Cmybest- We saw it Friday to get the Eligible-at-time-of-entry angle; 5 Matt-scoot-n-bunny- Must be considered with Noble driving; 4 Deena- the drop to this level seemed to wake her up a bit.

Race 4: 3 Up Front Northern- Was competitive with better and just missed on the drop; 4 Beach Brawn- Good first
back and should go forward in this one; 5 Capricious Art- Tough trip from the Snowman, another chance here; 1
Doowrah’s Trifold- Drops back to the level of two pretty good efforts five and six back.

Race 5: 2 Fiesty Kind Of Luv- Has always been streaky and form is good right now; 1 Gate Keeper- Beat these last
time and the rail helps; 6 Oceana Hanover- They opened it up for her and she should contend at this level.

Race 6: 6 Dm Fatboy Slim- Stahl line two back gives him the call in an iffy bunch; 3 Spur’s Antonio- Tends to contend from inside posts; 9 Liltycantbedenied- Inconsistent form, but can be Swift with his best.

Race 7: 2 Drop Of Nutmeg- Another ETE horse who is waking up big-time; 1 Jimi’s Little Wing- Noble- John G. combo is solid and this one likes the Flying Turns; 4 Get Ready To Rhumba- Should be better with Stahl and a start over the oval; 9 Bullys Joni- No threat, but a must use on the bottom of your exotics, imho.

Race 8: 6 Ideal Ticket- Noble-J.G. and a winner last time they combined; 4 Ge’s Antonio- Josh’s barn choice just isn’t winning races, maybe tonight? 7 Pee Wee Scooter- Third back, but post is an issue.

Race 9: 3 Anastasia Wildfire- sometimes beats herself, but gets the call in a good group; 6 Brewing Master- Very solid freshman may want a start as a soph; 1 Lofty Jailbird- Impressed in seasonal debut & will be forward early.

Race 10: 1 Phagus Hall- As consistent as they come, and this field is no tougher than the claimers; 9 Toronado Mindale- Second tier knocks him down to second choice; 3 Fancy Schmansy- Contends, but it’s been a while since he has won at this level; 5 Roman Knows Best- Established pack animal can wrap this ticket.

Race 11: 9 Lookslikefire- Kurt’s choice over #1 and #8 raced well in 2k11 debut; 4 Legacy Chip- Solid claimer cannot be ignored; 1 Count Dracula- Returns to his old stomping grounds and may taste blood tonight.

Race 12: 1 Crown Time Rambo- Impressive win before the side-trip to Michigan; 3 Currently Flying- Doesn’t win much, but always hangs around; 9 Eclipse Seelster- Raced well after missing time to a sick scratch.
Race 13: 1 Moira’s Intended- ETE and the rail off a win with a break, jogburger; 2 Candy Apple Miss- I’ve always liked her but she hasn’t shown much lately; 3 Stand Out Girl- Awful of late, but does get Noble; 8 Medoland Kendall- I’d like her a lot more if she hadn’t drawn the snowman.

Monday 4/25- The Return of the Giss!

2011-04-22T12:11:00.000-07:00

After the time away, this program seemed very easy to handicap, meaning I will probably get shut out. But, good luck anyway.

Race 1: 3 Pray To Me- NW1L8 due to cap, drops and is simply faster; 1 Danny-o- Fits well, will be forward with this group; 9 He Cantab You- Should get an absolutely perfect trip, but he did last time, too. Still…

Race 2: 1 Buzz Hershey- Drops below the level of his last win and gets Noble; 5 Noble Thought- Won last time Stahl drove and always tries; 4 Zipsnapndrop- Class dropper could be Sugg-cessful with this soft group.

Race 3: 2 S F Spiderman- Racing well off the four-year freshening; 4 Leanto Prayer- Regally bred, but seems not to like winning; 1 Hollys Wild Thing- From the rail, she makes my heart sing. Ignore at your own risk.

Race 4: 2 Blueridge Tooquick- Raced ver aggressively in first back off a sick scratch and now he drops; 4 Auto Pilot- Still winless on the season; 1 La Suvera- Mare has had previous success here, must consider from the rail; 9 Tieler Bea Hotspur- Inconsistent, but could “Kash” with the right trip in this one.

Race 5: 5 Lotsa Help- Winless this year, but scores about one of six lifetime; 2 Royal Cat- NW1L8 figures to be on the ticket; 1 Mr Sam- Class dropper gets the rail, but his form has really leveled lately.

Race 6: 2 Suicidal Sadie- Doing good work and gets her best post in a while; 9 Be Bop Beauty- I’d like her better with her nose on the gate; 1 Jetstream Cruising- Will get heavy play from the rail but hasn’t shown me enough yet.

Race 7: 4 Rapid City- Cruised last time Noble drove, hoping he gets ignored; 1 Ron Jeremy- Starting to race better and is a big player here; 3 Osbornes Potential- They opened the class up for this one who did huge work last time Aaron drove; 5 Go Cowboy Go- Not showing much lately, but he has been stuck in some fats miles.

Race 8: 3 Rose Run Ivan- Has been facing better with no success, new Steck purchase may surprise; 1 Alliance Hall- Cruises with his best, but will we see it? 5 High Gear Speed- Gets class relied and must be considered here.

Race 9: 3 Go Go Osborne- Closed a bit in seasonal debut and should not Stahl tonight; 1 Firm Jet- Raced well in return off a 5-year freshening; 5 Yourgonnamissme- Has shown little against much better at Mea5/8, Noble helops.

Race 10: 4 Break The Bank- The only NW1L8 gets another chance after breaking on the drop in class; 2 Leach- Races better, but not well, with Aaron driving, on ticket; 1 A Firm Kisser- Historically does okay from the rail; 7 Western Empire- He is the class of this group and can be used despite his iffy form.

Race 11: 2 Aliquippa- Has done it all but win in fast miles recently; 6 Vaniscape- Amman-Noble is a good combo, must consider; 3 Leo Hanover- May be figuring out the local surface, a chance.

Race 12: 7 Winsmith Delight-12-1 would be a gift w/Noble. Check recent local form; 4 Vest Over Pants- Aaron’s choice over #6, a huge ML fave; 6 O T’s Attack- May bounce in his 2nd start since August ’08.

Race 13: 6 Gunman’s Ace- NW1L8 has raced very well and should seal the deal tonight; 1 Frenchies Pride- Rail and a Noble-J.G. Wengerd angle; 4 Rd Rustler- Usually does moderate work from a decent draw; 2 Mcfriendly- He is the other NW1L8, but current form screams danger, warning, danger.

Saturday Northfield Pick 4 Play

2011-04-22T08:57:00.000-07:00

Full Monday picks will be posted later this afternoon as we are "back at it after a great trip to the Carolinas, Indiana (for a meeting at the palatial HHYF Home office) and St Louis, where we dodged tornadoes to meet the Tritons of the University of St Louis @ Missouri with Herps Alive!
REMEMBER- April 30, The Giss returns to Northfield TV for the Courageous Lady. Weather permitting, I will be on the apron all night, so stop by and say hello!

I will not be at the races this Saturday as I am going to a Dr Who Season Premier Party. Go ahead, say it.

This is a tough play. I could easily go 3-4-5 deep in the three of the legs. But, let's try:
14678/1/156/145=$45

Analysis:
Race 8: Can 6)The Long Goodbye handle the outside? Can 1)Delivered Rules protect the rail? Can 4) Dax Hanover win and not just compete at this level? 8) Cruisinfullthrottle would get my call on top from PP6 or in. 7) Chang Dynasty appears best to me but even he has question marks fron out here.

Race 9: 1) Worries Stay Small should be very good from he rail. he shows a win at this level. 8) Panskrit worries me from the outside, but, due to budget and the snowman draw,we will leave him off the ticket, going for the single here.

Race 10: 1)Gina Marie P always puts in effort, but was a beaten fave last time. 5)Fueled n waiting was Charlino's pick over #2 and #7 and has beaten these int he past. 6) Gordieisanartist has been doing work but not winning. 9)Rocco's Revenge gets cut for budgetary reasons.

Race 11: 4 Red White And Crue- Sharpest of these at t his class; 1) Expresso Forte- a notorious ticket killer both ways, but must be used from the rail; 5) Jackson One- Was it post or his skill level that did him in last time? A slight call over #2 and #7- Imperious worries me but may be too far outside- as the third horse on the ticket.

Good Luck!

Friday Pick Four

2011-04-20T07:54:00.000-07:00

Survived the tornadoes in St Louis last night and en route to University of Missouri at St Louis shortly, but here is a Pick 4 for you. Full selections return with Monday's card. Good luck

23/36/19/124569=$48

Race 8: The Osbonre horses have been good from the get go and I am tempted to single3)Shez Good Osborne, but 2)Dream Misty draws well and must be considered with the first starter.
Race 9:3)Hollys Folly has done everything but win lately and finds a good spot here. 6)Gadjet must be considered with the triple class drop
Race 10: 1)Moira's Bliss closed well in her local debut, two classes higher and 9)Campside Angel gets fresh hands which may wake her up.
Race 11: Wide open, so we go deep.

Good luck.

Weekend Pick Fours

2011-04-14T12:44:00.001-07:00

Greeting from Rock Hill South Carolina. Between herpetology programs at Winthrop U.
Here are the weekend Pick Four Plays- No time for analysis. Analysis returns next week, even though full picks don't.

Friday: 37/5/129/all=$48
Saturday:1239/123469/1/12=$48

Good luck.

GREETINGS FROM ROCK HILL, SOUTH CAROLINA

2011-04-13T19:54:00.000-07:00

SELECTIONS ARE ON HIATUS UNTIL MONDAY 4/25, BUT BECAUSE I LOVE YOU GUYS, I WILL POST A PICK FOUR PLAY FOR FRIDAY AND WILL TRY TO POST ONE FOR SATURDAY.

CONGRATULATIONS TO AL POLLACK AND SCOTT SINSEL, WHO WON MY TRIVIA. AL FOUND A RED HOT CHILI PEPPERS REFERENCE, WHICH WAS NOT THE ONE I WAS LOOKING FOR, BUT IT COUNTS.
SCOTT NAILED THE AVRIL LAVIGNE REFERENCE IN MY PICK OF SKATER BOY.

Wednesday- A Trivia question and then a brief hiatus

2011-04-11T12:39:00.000-07:00

This is a very bettable card. It is a shame I will be watching Winthrop and Wake Forest play baseball in Rick Hill, SC, so I will not be betting. Head tot he Carolinas for several days, home for a day for Passover and then to Indiana for Harness Horse Youth Foundation stuff and then to St Louis for a reptile show. Picks will resume either Saturday April 23 or Monday April 25. I may be able to get you Pick 4 plays this weekend.

By the way, it was great to see so many of you Saturday night while I was at the races for Orange Boosters Night. It took me nearly two hours to smoke 3/4 of my 45-minute cigar. I appreciate all the kind words.

Somewhere in today's picks is a pretty obvious pop song reference. First person to e-mail me with what it is, I have a prize for you. klgisser@earthlink.net. Good luck and see you in a bit.

Race 1: 2 Mac Atack Mac- Did good work against NW$200 two back, this drop really helps; 3 Catherinethegreat- Disappointed last time, another chance; 8 My Mystique- Snowman hurts, but she contends with her best.

Race 2: 6 Date Worthy- Eligible At Time of Entry is huge in this class; 4 Redzilla- Usually does decent work, but has been stuck here for a while; 3 Canadian Frontier- Did moderate work in his return and may improve.

Race 3: 3 Spiced Pork- The “beat Miss Tilly” angle again; 6 Miss Tilly- Did well to recover from the break; 5 Mr Bing- Needs to do more, but seems to be improving every start.

Race 4: 9 Ron Jeremy- Gets class relief and a slight call here; 2 Fancy Schmansy- NW1L8 and I will be flipping my top two on the exactas and tris; 1 Right On Time- usually hangs around; 5 Robin Dontget- Another chance at the bottom after a costly break.

Race 5: 6 Benn’s Thunder- $285K in the bank while the other seven have $156 combined, class tells; 1 Red Raider- Raced well in the return and will be close early; 5 Spring Fling- Robin chose off a Hollar-trainee to drive.

Race 6: 6 Contech- Talented youngster has not shown his best yet; 5 Prime Number- Experience helps and he may be starting a good run of form; 4 Valentinos Peace- was overmatched against $300 per start, a chance.

Race 7: 1 J D’s Turismo- Beat an exceptional group for this class Saturday, best bet; 3 Rhino- Sharp and there is little difference between $2500 and $3000s; 5 Dragoninthekash- Needs to sustain his work; 6 Scoozi- Was way overbet Saturday, but like the top pick, faced better.

Race 8: 3 Anastasia Wildfire- Gonna keep picking her until she loses; 6 One Day Wonder- Looks for three straight, beat these in last; 1 Filigreed- Big effort last time.

Race 9: 5 Sand Starla- Courageous Lady hopeful gets a local prep; 6 Up Front Northern- May be a bit braver after some good efforts against lesser; 1 Skater Boy A- Has the rail, can I make it any more obvious?

Race 10: 2 C And C Hoorah- I really like his chances with Stahl; 1 Guile’s Boy- Gets a much improved post; 9 Magnificent Gift- Sugg chose over #3, needs to work out a trip; 4 Hot Soup- Needs to finish what he starts.

Race 11: 4 Cold Splash- Always gives effort and finds a good spot here; 5 Brother Nick- Seems better without Lasix; 1 Gate Keeper- Seems better with Lasix.

Race 12: 3 Vivacious Raider- Did big work on the drop to this level; 1 Scoot To The Top- Has a free-legged mile under him and should improve; 4 Cn Loufly Loretta- Always finds a way to hang around, wraps the tri.

Race 13: 2 Up Front Carl- Showing slight signs of waking up; 5 Mcguigan N- So is he; 3 Lt Commander- Needs sustained effort, but could easily win if he gets Josh gets it; 9 Dm Ion- Class dropper ships from Canada and could be anything.

Monday maybes

2011-04-08T13:43:00.000-07:00

As tough a Monday card as I have seen in a long time. Good luck.
Race 1: 2 Chai- Should be full of life against these; 7 Love N Devotion- Back in an appropriate class, but post is an issue; 1 Gunner Osborne- Should be forward early as Dan picks up the lines.

Race 2: 2 Nevada T- Lukewarm call off the qualifier, but may need a couple more starts; 5 Money Man K- Should contend with new Wall-of-Famer in the bike; 7 Fortune King- Racing pretty well right now.

Race 3: 3 Roman Knows Best- If he is ever gonna finish a mile, it’s tonight; 2 Houdini Sahbra- Never wins, but must use; 6 Deacon George- First time Charlino may help him.

Race 4: 9 Phagus Hall- Will get a perfect trip here; 2 Toronado Mindale- Stalker may not get a great trip, but is worthy; 1 Snows Bangert Boy- Will get every call but the last one. Again; 5 Powerful Cam- Always does work, may sustain it for fresh set of hands.

Race 5: 1 Lean To Prayer- The rail could be the difference for this one; 3 Abba Zabra- I really like him, but he is 0-’11 so far; 6 Silent Star- Should be better 2nd time Charlino.

Race 6: 9 My My Marie- Well-connected and as solid a Q as you could want; 5 Royal Cam Osborne- Sick scratch worries me or would be on top of my ticket; 1 Camdestin- First starter gets the rail.

Race 7: 4 Hoosier Lion- Drops back down to his best level; 5 Liftoff Bayama- Has shown little since the barn change; 1 Mcfriendly- Just a hunch off a poor effort; 3 Western Jack- One of these days. One of these days.

Race 8: 9 Mystical Ways- Gets class relief after getting beat by some good ones; 6 Ivor Hanover- Coulc be a big night for Lippiatt; 4 Danny-o- Monster mile dropping down last time.

Race 9: 6 Powerful Crombie- Eidens calls on a catch-driver and gets a good one; 2 Arturoteen- Doesn’t stall with Stahl; 3 Ata Ata- Drop down helped him in his last and now a decent post.

Race 10: 6 Shannons Boy Scout- We haven’t seen his best yet; 9 Noble Thought- Always hangs around, but the one may stop in front of him; 2 Rd Rustler- Shows some moderate results lately; 8 Goin Home Ray- Gets a barn change, but I’ve always liked this pacer.

Race 11: 4 Dunkster- Cruises in this cheap, but… 1 Celebrity Yank- Drops to the level of the last win and can pick it up if fave falters; 3 Come Along Fred- Usually contends when he draws welol.

Race 12: 1 Pee Wee Scooter- Fresh horse and the rail are big at this level; 5 Zhihong Pang- Only NW1L8 must be considered; 2 Royal Tattler- Can get a bit of this with Charlino driving.

Race 13: 4 Keystone Ranger- Likes the Route Eight oval and Charlino; 3 Tieler Bea Hotspur- Usually does some work, but not like either of his namesakes; 1 Moira’s Intended- Must consider from the rail; 9 Standin On A Beach- Wildly inconsistent, but I have to list somebody for fourth.

Saturday Night- WLECOME ORANGE BOOSTERS!

2011-04-07T12:08:00.000-07:00

For those who do not know, I am the Girls Soccer coach at Orange High School and the Boosters are holding their annual fundraiser at the track Saturday 4/9. Supposed to be a nice night- maybe an isolated shower. Looking forward to some time with my friends from the Boosters and some apron time with a good cigar and my friends from Northfield Park. See you Saturday.

Pick 4 has the $10K Guarantee and a 14% Takeout.
The Play (and it is a tough one)
5/125/all/15=$48

Analysis

Race 8: 5)Bodandy Andy is super sharp and I just don't see anyone better. Chalk, yes, but the single is important later.
Race 9: 2)Scoozi and 5) J D's Turismo get big time class relief, but 1)Shackleton Hanover is on another one of his roles. Gotta use all three and I would love 9-2 on the #1.
Race 10: Who do you pitch and why? You can't...this is basically an open pace. Hit the all button and hope the board is spread out.
Race 11: I would like to go deeper than just 1)Cruise On Osborne and 5)Doctor Gates, but don't have the bankroll for it. There are other threats, but I will feel pretty good if I am live coming into this one. Good Luck.

Here are the race by race picks:
Race 1: 1 Valley Of Vice- The rail gives him the call in a very competitive group; 3 Extravagant Manner- benefits from his bets draw in months; 5 Corly’s Finale- Needs a trip, but can add value here.

Race 2: 4 R Cowboy- Third start back and looks for third win back; 2 Pathway Dot Com- I like this one inside with Grismore; 1 Master Wheels- Seems to be rolling back into form.

Race 3: 2 Samovar Hanover- Class dropper gets Charlino, which might be enough; 3 Tooter Lane- Fastest of the NW1L8 pacers; 5 Lt Commander- Raced well from snowman dropping down to this class.

Race 4: 2 Delivered Rules- Needed that last start & gets my call even though Ryan chose off; 8 Ar Ed- Always does work, but this group is tough to beat from out there, even if they did open it up for him; 5 Fueled n Waiting- Impressive win against lesser in last; 1 Gordieisanartist- Inconsistent, but rail helps.

Race 5: 4 Cruisinfullthrottle- Starting to get it all back together; 3 Rocco’s Revenge- Moves up despite the ETE, will take more pressure late here; 1 Sleek Fish- Most consistent of these gets the rail.

Race 6: 3 Tug River Claude- Has been competitive with far better; 6 Ideal Ticket- Charlino chose over #2/7, should add value; 2 Whispers Art- Always does work and is well-placed here.

Race 7: 1 Get And Gone- This is an unimpressive group for the class and he may surprise; 5 The Fonz- Starting to wake up and should contend; 2 Next Idol- was a bit flat moving up here, another chance; 3 Lincoln N- A bit inconsistent, but will get an aggressive trip.

Race 8: 5 Bodandy Andy- Draws best of the higher-tagged animals; 6 Seton Hall- faced late-closers at ‘Toga; 4 Hummer N- Faced better at Lebanon, ignore at your own risk.

Race 9: 1 Shackleton Hanover- Hotter than a pot of Texas chili right now; 2 Scoozi- Did moderate work against far better, class drop helps; 5 J D’s Turismo- Another class dropper who figures here.

Race 10: 2 Moreland Flash- Returns inside, where he does his best racing; 3 Osborne’s Yankee- racing very well and still improving; 4 Red White And Crue- Has been unbeatable for Knipper; 1 Imperious- Has been solid off some very good trips, another in store tonight.

Race 11: 1 Cruise On Osborne- Should have no trouble getting the top this time; 5 Doctor Gates- Won last and could go Gonzo on us at any time; 2 Mainline Hall- Racing well and should improve from here.

Race 12: 1 Sun Set Acres Troy- Charlino’s choice over the #5 has been facing better, usually; 5 Dd Cam Ram- Could turn the tables, but I’ll go as Dan goes; 7 Gold Fever- Exceptional form; awful post.

Race 13: 3 Wildridge Star- NW1L8 gets his best post in ages; 2 Fancy Schmansy- Had post excuse last time, but has always been inconsistent; 4 Slade Gram- Has some back class and fits with his best; 6 Jack Maverick- Eligible at time of entry and very tempted to put him higher on the ticket…and still might.

Friday Fillies and another 14%, $10K Guaranteed Pick 4

2011-04-06T12:56:00.000-07:00

Well, we gave you both of those guarantee Pick 4s last weekend and Saturday's actually paid pretty well, so let's take another crack:

The Play
13/2367/457/26=$48

Analysis:
Race 8- It is very tempting to single 1)Gadjet and double up my play later. But she doesn't always fire, so use the 3 for security.
Race 9-2)Ellie Deer and 3)Polo Aub have the fastest recent wins and Polo Aub will be crushed at the windows. 6)Red River Maiden is improving, but 7)A Fillie Namedfred really intrigues me-- she won in her local debut and she may be better than the form shows.
Race 10:7) I Love Being Right is a horse I will be playing flat if the odds are right, but the 4)On The Money, down in class, and the 5)Towner's Great Lady, both fit well here and must be used with the top pick outside on what is expected to be a rainy night.
Race 11: 6)White Cheeks could easily be singled, but again I need some protection, so I will throw 2) Tt's Little Lass on the ticket since she may trip out with this draw.

A couple heads-ups-- I will be at Northfield Saturday, as mentioned previously. Stop by and say hi. Also, after April 13, picks are going on hiatus until the 22nd or 23rd as I will be doing some traveling.

Here are the race-by-race picks. good luck.

Race 1: 8 Deadly Satisfaction- The March 18 line from the snowman tells me she can win this; 3 Doowrah Silver- Very consistent and a NW1L8; 1 Hf Velma- The rail makes a huge difference for her.

Race 2: 1 Hawthorne Maria- Gets the call off last week’s monster effort; 5 Medoland Kendall- Couldn’t take the heat In last, another chance; 7 Towner’s Big Sadie- Stahl chose over #6 who is better on paper.

Race 3: 6 Storms Never Last- Has done decent work in every recent start; 1 Precious Lass- Class dropper showed nothing from snowman in 1st back; 3 Native Flower- I’m just not feeling the 5-2 ML.

Race 4: 9 Ursula K- Drops to the level of her last win against a group with little to recommend; 1 Girly Toys- Maybe the rail will help her; 7 Cn Loufly Loretta- Just keeps hanging around, leave off ticket at your own risk; 2 Silky Sailor- Can save ground from here and still be on the super ticket.

Race 5: 4 Stox Up Bluegrass- Moves up in good form and has beaten these before; 5 C R Dream- Tough trip from a bad post last time; 7 She’s All Country- Doesn’t Stahl with Ryan driving.

Race 6: 8 Inawhile Crocodile- Nearly beat these from the snowman two back; 3 It’s a Sham- Decent freshman fair campaign, may need a start; 5 Game Danica- Wildly inconsistent, needs her best.

Race 7: 6 Catherinethegreat- Has done good work against good winners last two; 2 Jarmoto- Used her last time and she didn’t sustain effort, better here? 4 Date Worthy- Way overdue; 9 Candy J- Could be anything, but I would hit the “all” button here if I could.

Race 8: 1 Gadjet- No excuses against these from the rail; 3 Co Line Hard Drive- Moves up and can play with these with her best; 5 Allamerican Dora- Faces nominally better, but is in very good form.

Race 9: 3 Polo Aub- Drew off and hid last time, similar effort cruises; 2 Ellie Deer- Went deer in the headlights from the outside in last; 7 A Fillie Namedfred- Won her local return, how sharp is she?

Race 10: 7 I Love Being Right- Big driver change should help her; 4 On The Money- Drops one more class after a slight wake-up@250PS; 5 Towner’s Great Lady- I need a better final quarter from this one; 3 Electric Highlight- May be able to stalk these.

Race 11: 6 White Cheeks- Is better here than in MI, and her MI form is better than any of these; 5 Dream Misty- Swartz’s choice is so consistent; 2 Tt’s Little Lass- Could easily have flipped her with #5.

Race 12: 1 Section Line Adina- Best mare racing at Nfld right now; 6 Askpedia- Was competitive with the pick, may be a tough trip here; 2 Hula Lu- Always does a bit of work, but not enough to win.

Race 13:4 Emma Rose Ben- May still need this start, but should improve; 9 Island Idol- Track was bad on Q day, maybe -5; 7 Blueirdge Empress- Most consistent of these, but draws outside; 1 Back Home Again- A chance if she fires.

Wednesday 4/6/11

2011-04-04T08:07:00.000-07:00

A pretty good weekend, giving out both Pick 4s, even though one was pretty chalky, still, the account is looking good and this Saturday, 4/9, I will be at Northfield in person for the first time in two months to support the Orange Boosters. Pretty excited and hoping for cigar-smoking weather on the apron. Good luck.

Race 1: 2 Brother Nick- Did good work against better in 1st start off Lasix, slight call; 4 High Sonyador- Has been hanging around & is a player here; 1 Playing To Win- I’d be playing to show, or maybe place.

Race 2: 2 Spiced Pork- Miss Tilly refuses to win, so he becomes the choice; 5 Miss Tilly- Clearly the best form, but beaten at 1-5 in last; 3 Jh Action- Decent in limited opportunity at two, consider.

Race 3: 6 Ivor Hanover- Was bothered in last, another chance; 1 Fiesty Kindof Luv- Gets class and post relief; 3 Impressive Mariah- Has been anything but, but figures if she can finish stronger,

Race 4: 6 Standin On A Beach- Benefited from the drop down and gets Noble; 4 Heza Firecracker- exploded to the front in local debut, but blew up in the stretch; 5 Doowrah’s Deal- Class dropper fits with his best, but is inconsistent; 9 Aliquippa- Drops to level of last win, but has been awful since.

Race 5: 4 B Afflicted- This appears to “b” a soft group for the class; 7 Medoland Jessie- Moves up and gets Noble, did win last from out here; 6 Girls’ Getaway- Nice two-year-old showed little in the qualifier.

Race 6: 4 Scoot To The Top- NW1L8, now free-legged, qualified well & gets relief off the freshening; 9 Vivacious Raider- Also NW1L8, has tons of back class; 3 Eagle Creek Beauty- Must sustain her work.

Race 7: 4 Gate Keeper- Very impressive in last, should roll; 7 Garland’s Brat- Probably faster than my pick, but post hurts; 9 Lucca’s Revenge- Wyatt chose off to drive #4; 3 Legacy Chip- A break and two bad posts last three, a possibility here.

Race 8: 7 Shacketon Hanover- Super streaky and in a an “up” cycle now; 9 Magnificent Gift- Drops to the level of his last win; 1 G Rod- Speedster should benefit from the rail.

Race 9: 8 Hello Carlo- Snowman is an issue, but triple class drop off a win as an eligible-at-time-of entry; 4 Mr Sam- Drops two classes below his last winl; 2 S F Spiderman- Lasix helped and now gets Stahl.

Race 10: 4 Epes- Noble’s choice over 1/3/9 should make it two-in-a-row; 6 Ron Jeremy- Used hard last time, another chance; 5 Leroy Mot- Impressive qualifier on a day when the track was more like -5 seconds than -3; 9 Whispers Art- Was much better in last, may get a good trip here.

Race 11: 2 Pathway Dot Com- Overmatched at PcD, but still bet a bit there, easy winner; 5 One Day Wonder- Consistent performer moves up and should challenge; 4 My Mystique- Decent draw helps her.

Race 12: 9 Green Acre Pill- Love the fresh horse angle in this class, decent Q; 4 Jack Maverick- Very consistent, but not winning; 1 Homer Simpson- I like the late work from him at this class.

Race 13: 3 Capricious Art- Lukewarm call after a beaten favorite effort Saturday; 1 Rocco’s Revenge- Eligible-at-time-of-entry but showed little in that ione, better two back; 2 C And C Hoorah- Will fresh hands help him? 6 Forever Friendly- Noble’s choice has done work, but trips are nor working out.

Monday Morning, You Sure Look Fine

2011-04-01T13:55:00.000-07:00

Just to let you know, I will be working with the Harness Horse Youth Foundation as a Project Manager for the foreseeable future. This position will not affect my Northfield picks or anything else I am doing or plan to do. I would ask you to check out the HHYF website at www.hhyf.org to see what the sport's leading educational outreach organization does. It should be great working both with media and with kids (I know, hard to tell the difference sometimes) and I am excited, especially for the summer when programming really starts. Good luck.

Race 1: 4 Israeli Hall- Was flying late last time, a similar effort wins this; 2 Scooter In Motion- Gets class relief, but the time off is a worry; 1 Be Bop Beauty- Consider from the rail.
Race 2: 3 Hollys Wild Thing- Has contended and is the only NW1L8 here; 8 Danny-o- Has been roughed up and may be again, but does work; 2 He’s Fulla Chip- Usually does a little work.
Race 3: 6 Designer Cruise- Has done solid work over the last month; 1 Native Fate- Has speed, so we must consider him from the rail; 8 Osbornes Potential- Most consistent of these, but the snowman hurts.
Race 4: 3 Hickory Hunter- Aaron may pick him up slightly; 4 Love Shark-Raced well in his local debut; 8 Shannons Boy Scout- Gets fresh hands here, but a bad draw; 2 Priceless Picture- Showed speed at Windsor, may like the shorter stretch.

Race 5: 4 Toronado Mindale- Should get his fourth straight here; 2 Phagus Hall- Post hurt him last two, ignore at your own risk; 5 Rhino- First time Noble and could horn in on the action.

Race 6: 4 Mickey Deez- NW1L8 gets Aaron here; 2 Fortune King- Very professional and must be considered; 6 Royal Cat- Needs a trouble-free trip and he can contend.

Race 7: 9 Liltycantbedenied- Very few of these like to win, it’s been awhile, but this one does; 2 Houdini Sahbra- At 0-38, has just the 4th worst win percentage ’10-11! 3 A Firm Kisser- Gets his best draw in quite a while; 5 Magic Dart- The class of the field is not in good form right now.

Race 8: 4 Gunner Osborne- Big improvement last time with Noble; 2 Nutmegs Desire- Well-bred and well connected, could be anything; 5 Bella Bionda- Did solid work in the Q, had high hopes at two.

Race 9: 3 Anastasia Wildfire- Convinced me last week, which means she’ll probably run; 1 Abba Zabra-Will protect the post & is a solid player; 9 Silent Star- Just needs to follow the one and use passing lane.

Race 10: 7 Roman Knows Best- Will be on the point and may last against these; 1 Mcfriendly- The rail is big in this class; 9 Arturoteen- Raced well with the move to Stahl; 5 Sky Strikes- Can hang around in this group.

Race 11: 1 Hooser Lion- Should contend from the rail; 2 Noble Thought- Has been consistent last four and may turn the tables here; 6 Go Cowboy Go- May have gotten a wake-up call in his last start.

Race 12: 2 Rocco’s Cavallo- Drops to the bottom and Fancy may be overbet; 7 Fancy Schmansy- Gets Josh and has been consistent, but is winless in ’11; 3 Up Front Carl- It’s all about the post draw for him.

Race 13: 1 Keystone Ranger- Has raced well locally and gets Charlino again; 2 Leo Hanover- Needs to sustain his work. I’m not “lion,” 9 Christmas Photo K- Has been competing, but Charlino chose off; 4 Western Empire- Has tons of back class but is not racing very well right now.

Saturday selections and a $10K Guaranteed Pick- Four Play

2011-03-31T13:04:00.000-07:00

The Play

123468/12/13/16= $48

Analysis:

Race 8: Would really like to hit the all button here, too many "what-ifs," but have to keep the play below $50, so we will eliminate a couple for publication purposes. I WILL hit the all when I wager it.

Race 9: They opened up the class for 2) Next Idol ($305 per start) and he is sharp enough to handle the move up. 1) Doctor Gates will be forward early and must be considered.

Race 10: One eligible at time of entry, five class droppers and five who get in under the secondary condition (a huge advantage). 3)Rapid Pursuit was winning races last year and 1)Capricious Art just looks good on paper.

Race 11: 1) Red White And Crue is super sharp, draws well and is in a hot barn. have to use him based on his Knipper-form, but he was a $5 claimer at Buffalo. The competitive $10-12 claimer, Brandon's Art, is a solid value play here. He's won one of every seven races in his career, a solid strike rate.

Here are the race-by-race picks. Good luck.
Race 1: 2 Hello Carlo- Lukewarm call w/class relief, but this is a soft bunch for the class; 3 Captain Korki- Always tries, rarely wins; 5 Musical Dream- Seems to do better work with Wyatt in the bike.

Race 2: 7 Moreland Flash- Hoping GGG puts him on the point; 4 Caramel Dumpling- Will pick up the pieces if there is pressure up top; 2 Imperious- Stalker may have too many leavers in front of him.

Race 3: 2 Blue Time Overdrive- Best draw in two months and always puts in effort; 7 Sharp Shuttle- Needs to overcome a bad draw, but is ETE; 4 Eagle Jacob- Eligible at time of entry, but lost to #7.

Race 4: 2 Lima Jag- Third start back in a group that doesn’t like to win; 1 Heez Ruthless N- Rail, class relief, Aaron, but recent form is horrid; 6 Soul Redeemer- Aaron chose off, so he has to go below the #1; 3 Heza Firecracker- Unknown quantity could easily take this one, but likely needs a local start.

Race 5: 4 Bodandy Andy- Moves up again and is racing very well; 2 J D’s Turismo- Charlino chose off, but he looks best on paper; 3 Get And Gone- Moves up off an “oh, wow” win, but gets new hands.

Race 6: 6 Fueled N Waiting- Drops to level of his last win and should beat these; 1 Three Five Seven- One-move animal needs to trip out; 4 Blue My Mind- Always gives effort, would like him more inside.

Race 7: 3 Broadway Fame- Should keep rolling for hottest barn on the planet; 2 Tactical Dreamer N- Drops back in where he belongs; 4 Gold Fever- Most consistent of these, but may be moving up out of his comfort zone; 6 Picasso’s Dream- In at a level where he should contend.

Race 8: 3 Diehl’s Deal- All he needed was a few pylons last time, ignore at your risk; 6 Mom’s Looker- Furthest inside of those drawing outside; 8 Australian Stock- Finally getting around this racetrack.

Race 9: 2 Next Idol- I think it’s Haley or Casey. You? They opened the class for him. 1 Doctor Gates- Rail helps him enormously; 4 S F Stampede- Consistent and they opened this one up for him, as well.

Race 10: 3 Rapid Pursuit- Been pursuing him for too long. Bankroll says one last chance; 1 Capricious Art- Puts in effort and should be a player from the rail; 9 Tooter Lane- Seems more consistent than he has been; 2 Barratry- Iffy eligible-at-time-of-entry, he finishes fourth and exceeds the earnings cap.

Race 11: 6 Brandon’s Art- Faces a bit softer and is a quality animal; 1 Red White And Crue- Moves up but is razor sharp; 4 The Long Goodbye- Another chance after a disheartening break.

Race 12: 5 Sleek Fish- Toss the bad draw lines and he is not bad; 1 Dragoninthekash- Won’t be draggin’ him in tonight; 8 Ideal Ticket- Charlino chose over #6 which gives me pause, and a value play.

Race 13: 6 Crusinfullthrottle- Triple class drop off a decent place-effort;3 Ar Ed- Shows some fast miles, but has won just two of his last 38; 5 Bucks Luck- May hang around, although I am tempted to hit an all button here; 4 Up Front Northern- Tons of back class, but current form is very, very questionable.

Friday- Picks AND the 14% Solution

2011-03-30T12:38:00.000-07:00

As you know (or should) April kicks off a reduced takeout on Northfield Pick 3s, Pick 4s and Pick 5s...just 14%! Plus, in a joint promotion with the USTA, The Pick 4 pool on weekends is guaranteed at a minimum $10K. While I will be providing Pick 4-play on the USTA Facebook page and possible their website, the play will ALWAYS be posted here first.

2356/69/1/1234= $32
If you want a saver and don't trust Section Line Adina, you can play
56/69/35/123= $24

Analysis:
Race 8: #5 Inawhile Crocodile is fresh and figures even though winless in three this year. #6 Game Danica is the actual proven winner here, but #3 Mach N Cookies and #2 Red River Maiden may step up.
Race 9: #9 Northmedo Esther got beat last time but the horse that interests me is #6 Jarmoto. She gets class relief and a totally different style of driver in Josh Kash (aggressive). She may respond and add value.
Race 10: 1 Section Line Adina is doing everything right and is a logical single. #5 My Sweet Lorelei is a value play and #3 Allamerican Dora could pick up the pieces so I have used them in a saver ticket, although I doubt I will play it, since I like the #1 so much.
Race 11: #2 Jellyfish Joy showed nothing in her last, but draws better and faces lesser. Risky, but if she returns to the form of the Q, she wins easily. #1 Swift Samantha is above her best level and #3 Co Line Hard Drive drops below the level of her last win. Good Luck.

Race 1: 4 Storms Never Last- Taking a chance in a wide-open group; 2 Zim And Torre- No chance with her recent draws, but a solid player; 5 Stand Out Girl- Barn change and big driver change, no Joshuing.

Race 2: 2 Northen Opal- Steps up but dominated lesser in debut for a red-hot barn; 5 I Give Youmy Word- Moves up off a good win and a barn change; 3 Redmeansgo- Exceptionally sharp against lesser.

Race 3: 4 Medoland Kendall- Absolute tease gets class relief and may Kash tonight; 1 Eagle Creek Beauty- Risky off the break, figures with her best; 6 Doowrah Silver- The only NW1L8 in here, value?

Race 4: 4 Sunrise Sunset- Drops below level of last win & has finished better than #3 lately; 3 Blue Time Ice Lady- Also below the class of her last tally, not showing as much against better; 2 Towner’s Great Lady- Should contend with this draw; 8 Hollysfolly- If she can handle the snowman, watch out.

Race 5: 2 Cruisin Delight- Watched video of her last, fair program comment; 7 Hawthorne Maria- Game mile in her last, trip may be no better; 3 Sweetie Sue Cam- Doesn’t win much, but always hangs around.

Race 6: 3 Contech- Moves up, but can handle this group if she gets a breather; 4 Conway Maid- Seconditis is real and she has it; 2 Count N Caloris- Gets fresh hands and usually competes.

Race 7: 1 Darting Larkin- Lukewarm call due to the rail; 5 Towner’s Big Sadie- She has been stuck here a long time as a NW1L8; 2 Love N Devotion- Maiden might be better off racing against similar. Or not; 4 Sadie Falcon- Class dropper has contended, but the sock scratch is a big red flag for me.

Race 8: 5 Inawhile Crocodile- Raced huge against similar last time; 6 Game Danica- Beat my pick last time, but posts are switched here; 3 Mach N Cookies- Consistent contender, infrequent victor.

Race 9: 9 Northemdo Esther- I don’t think she lost last time, she got beat; 6 Jarmoto- Class drop and a driver change, needs to sustain work; 3 Catherinethegreat- Improved and stayed flat for Sugg last time.

Race 10: 1 Section Line Adina- Sharpest mare on the grounds right now. Here’s your single; 3 Allamerican Dora- Moves up off some legit efforts; 5 My Sweet Lorelei- My Seth Meyers/Amy Poehler pick- 10-1 ML. Really? I mean, really? 2 Askpedia- Only because J.D. chose off the #7, who seems solid.

Race 11: 2 Jellyfish Joy- No idea what to do with her off that 1st back; 3 On The Money- Third back and an improved draw with possible value; 1 Swift Samantha- Flat effort moving up, another chance from rail.

Race 12: 6 Deadly Satisfaction- Best post draw since her arrival and can surprise these; 3 TT’s Little Lass- Moves up but continues to show good effort; 1 Jetsreamjazziecam- Best post in ages.

Race 13: 5 Blueridge Empress- Hasn’t won recently, but is the most consistent of these; 2 Imagine Freedom- Showed improvement dropping down; 4 Shadyplace- Another NW1L8 who figures with her best; 6 Polo Aub- Should be on the ticket but is not as effective from here as from inside.

Wednesday- Wild and Wondeful

2011-03-28T12:19:00.000-07:00

(Oh, no, that's west Virginia, sorry). An interesting card with some obvious winners. Although I wish there was more basketball. (Column Aside #1,not that I want any of you confusing me with Norman Chad). The CBI Tourney starts its best of three championship series tonight between powerhouses Creigthon and Oregon. My play? Take a pass. It's a best of three, dude).
Ha d a great weekend and want to thank VCU Coach Shaka Smart for allowing me to make the April mortgage payment early. Karma time- whoever wins Butler-VCU Saturday wins it all Monday night. (Column Aside #2-NIT semis are Tuesday night. Bet the house on Alabama -2. They are young, getting better and Trevor Releford is the real deal). Oh, yes, and now some Northfield picks. Good luck.

Race 1: 8 High Gear Speed- Favorable driver change may allow him to overcome snowman; 1 Forever Friends- Solid player from the rail, but not as fast; 7 The Count- Good work since dropping down here.

Race 2: 1 Cat’s Run- Gets a value call in a very well-matched group; 3 Gate Keeper- Can compete, but not convinced Wyatt is the Key Master; 2 B Afflicted- Gets Noble after a flat effort moving up to these.

Race 3: 6 Artistic Dreamer- Is clearly improving and anyone can win this; 7 Three Five Seven- Moves up, but not really; 1 Ron Jeremy- Must be considered from rail, but may be reduced to a supporting role.

Race 4: 5 Crown Time Rambo- Looking to beat the likely favorite ad he may; 1 Jack Maverick- NW1L8, actually NW1L10, can’t use on top at this price; 4 Monkey Off My Back- The lack of a thirty-day rule makes this one problematic; 6 Dynamagic- Third back, but must do better. Much better. Really.

Race 5: 3 Spiced Pork- I have absolutely no clue in this one, decent Q; 5 Mr Bing- Was credible at two; 9 Corporate Politics- Freshened for four years and a better Q than the 1, also off that long.

Race 6: 4 Oceana Hanover- Nearly beat better last time and is in as NW1L8; 2 Hollys Wild Thing- Will probably be overbet; 1 Key Of Ahhh- Gets Noble after more qualifiers than an English Major.

Race 7: 1 Shackleton Hanover- As we keep saying, a totally different animal when he is on the point; 2 Rapid City- Gets a post; 3 Right On Time- Third back and massive class relief; 6 Nascart- Looking to add value, but will probably hit the “all” button.

Race 8: 1 Jackson One- Hard to ignore the last line and the ETE; 4 Chocolate Crush- Will fresh hands pick him up? 3 Break The Bank- Racing well at the gateway to Kings Island, as I call it.

Race 9: 2 Viking Mia- Gate-to-wire for this eligible at time of entry; 1 Royal Cat- he’s been in some fast miles, but he’s not winning them; 8 Chewey- Not sure how good he is, we will find out from the snowman.

Race 10: 5 Stox Up Bluegrass- Has been doing very good work against some sharp ones; 9 Getherdone Sue- Usually does work and can add value; 1 Matt-scoot-n-bunny- Should-be-good-from-the-rail; 2 Vivacious Raider- Good draw, but not consistent enough to put much higher on the ticket.

Race 11: 5 Garland’s Brat- Honest trotter gets a slight call; 3 Barbazon- Moves up, but has been the model of consistency; 4 Sam Has Class – Fresh horse, good Q (Dunkster often breaks on rail- danger)

Race 12: 6 Mattress Dancing- Class dropper may need a start or two, but faces a soft group; 4 Cn Loufly Loretta- Don’t see her winning, but is easily be on ticket; 2 Hillcrest Crystal- Best post in months.

Race 13: 5 Powerful Cam- Best bet with Noble against these; 7 Avenue A- Class relief helps, post does not; 2 Eagle Jacob- Drops to the level of a lifetime best win; 1 Rd Rustler- Needs tojavascript:void(0) sustain his work.

Friday Hoops Action

2011-03-25T13:33:00.000-07:00

Might as well expand our minds a bit.

Marquette vs North Carolina- The 2nd most intriguing game of the night to me. UNC is -4 and while the ACC was down a bit this year, the Big East is highly overrated and Marquette, on paper, is one of the weakest.Lay the points and take the Tar Heels (not just because of the harness racing angle)

Richmond vs Kansas- I nearly picked Kansas to win it all and now that Richmond has had several days to think about things, they revert to mid-major status. The problem is that with Kansas -10.5, things may get http://www.blogger.com/post-create.g?blogID=5814531344177962624crazy late. Kansas wins easily and may cover. I might split a bet on the money line (like $725 to win 100 and then $100 -10.5), but the spread is too far. Very small play on Kansas laying the points.

Kentucky vs Ohio State. Everyone is talking about how the freshmen will play. But the key is Ohio State's experience in Diebler (who I have actually learned to appreciate after all these years- isn't he like twelfth-year senior?), Lauderdale and Lighty. Kentucky will be in this game throughout, but Coach Calamari, err, Cal the Booster's Pal, err Calipari and his boys will be forced to foul late in a close game and OSU will draw off to cover the 6 point spread (game opened at 4.5, btw, a big mover for a sweet sixteen game)

Florida State vs Virginia Commonwealth. VCU is plus 4 here and I am probably going to play them to win outright (100 to win 155). Shaka Smartm, the VCU Coach, is the 2nd best young coach in the nation (behind the man a friend calls The Nerd Without A Pocket Protector, Brad Stevens). He is highly intelligent and is an outstanding game-day coach and motivator (he has a 110-page long quote list, mine is only about 40). Florida State just isn't that good.

Good luck!

-Giss-

Friday weekend kickoff

2011-03-25T13:17:00.001-07:00

I still think tonight's best bet is Ohio State over Kentucky-- they are fundamentally sounder and more experiences, but the rules say I have to pick horses too. I feel like I got stuck on a lot of favorites here, but on second glance, maybe not. Very playable card if the prices meet your criteria (ie: a night where money management may trump handicapping, and if you have seen my 'capping lately, that is probably a good thing). Good Luck!

Race 1: 6 Northmedo Esther- Will be no value, but has won here before; 5 Viking Mia- raced well with the flat mile & appears the main challenger; 4 Golden Slippers- Always does some work & worth a shot.

Race 2: 3 Ellie Deer- Moves up off a dominating win & J.D. chose over 2/4/5; 2 Commissioned N- Matbe she will finish stronger for Stahl; 5 Hollysfolly- Contends with her best and may add some value.

Race 3: 1 Section Line Adina- As solid as they come lately; 4 TT’s Little Lass- Should be flying late and if we get the ML, worth a chance on top; 2 C R Dream- Continues to race better each week.

Race 4: 5 Sand Song- Well-traveled, but seems to race best here, could be a decent price; 4 Rosie Caribia- Giving way late of late, form failing? 6 Miss Big Time- Moves back up off a very impressive effort; 9 Gadjet- Tough trip last time, ignore at your own risk.

Race 5: 4 Saratoga’s Best- They opened up class to keep her in it, versatile mare; 1 Redmeansgo- She is the NW$302 & she gets the rail; 9 Terebithia- Can follow the 2nd choice around twice for a good result.

Race 6: 5 Forever Friends- Gets the call in a well-matched group; 3 Filigreed- Inconsistent, but they opened it up for her, consider; 2 Krissy K- A return to her old style last week may be a tell for this race.

Race 7: 9 Clarksville Jazz- Moves up, but usually puts in good effort; 2 Jessies Band- Risky as she hasn’t shown much since the sick scratch; 3 Miss Port Foal Leo- Sugg chose in favor of the #2; 1 Stand Out Girl- Not much gate speed, but seems to race better from inside.

Race 8: 2 Stox Up Bluegrass- Huge wakeup call in her last, easy winner if she fires; 1 French Worker- Will defend the rail; 5 Towner’s Great Lady- Drops to the level of a dominating win, why so flat last 4?

Race 9: 6 Coras Grace- Risky pick coming off the break, but I could not find anyone to beat her; 9 Cn Loufly Loretta- Keeps finding ways to be on the ticket; 1 Blueridge Flirting- Has speed, rail helps.

Race 10: 4 Forever Lucky- Class relief and good recent work, NW1L8; 2 I Love Being Right- Class dropper fits the main condition now; 1 Sydney Hanover- Break cost her all chance, try again; 5 Shadyplace- Usually competes in this class, but is just 1-39 winning in ’09-10.

Race 11: 3 Eagle Winter- Slight edge in what seems a 2-horse race on paper; 1 Freenezdowntheroad- But you better believe I am boxing the exacta and stacking the trifecta; 8 Inawhile Crocodile- Has the racing style to pick up the pieces if the faves get stupid.

Race 12: 2 I Give You My Word- Looking to pick up an easy win before leaving? 5 Tiffany Malone- Class relief and usually does work, could surprise; 4 Allamerican Dora- Beat these in last, new driver.

Race 13: 2 Cruisin Delight- Class drop really helped her last time; 4 Imagine Freedom- Class relief and did work in first start back off a sick scratch; 7 Hawthorne Maria- Gonna use her here even though Kurt chose off; 6 Love N Devotion- NW1L8, but she is actually a NW1 life, which is a bit of a difference.

I Don't Care if Monday's Blue...

2011-03-25T13:17:00.000-07:00

...Tuesday's gray and Wednesday, too. This card is the absolute CURE for the blahs. Lots of bettable races and some decent Pick three plays.
Hopefully I can make enough on basketball over the weekend to have a bankroll.
Good luck

Race 1: 2 Jl Stand Forever- Tired off far better fractions that he will see here; 6 Royal Cam Osborne- Good form, but he is 0-21 life, worst of all these; 1 Cam’s Golden Boy- Did some work in the qually.
Race 2: 4 Come Along Fred- Decent post, first time Noble; 9 Master Lad Pro- Showed improvement last time and gets a 3rd back angle; 5 Mulebarn Bob- Test drive for the catch driver, perhaps?
Race 3: 5 I Am Samsational- Or at least I Am Samprettygood; 1 Toronado Mindale- Moves up off two in a row; 6 Bell Valley Indian- Class dropper fits, but draws outside the main competition.

Race 4: 4 Keystone Ranger- Nearly got the job done in his local debut, a fast mile; 5 Sleek Fish- First Noble, best post in a month plus; 3 Dragoninthekash- 1 for his last 1 after going 1 for 42; 2 Cousin Mikey- Inconsistent. May the Swartz be with you.

Race 5: 2 Contech- Beat these by ten last time, no value, but a no brainer; 1 Abba Zabra- Very consistent and should trip out; 9 Leanto Prayer- Hoping Wildfire breaks again and we get a bgigger #.

Race 6: 2 Designer Cruise- Showing some improvement lately; 3 Osbornes Potential- Was driven aggressively in move up, consider; 8 Western Jack- Very interesting barn change, snowman is a killer.

Race 7: 1 Standin On A Beach- Class relief and the rail for one of 3 NW1L8; 9 Elephants Can Fly- Gets Noble for the first time recently and is NW1L8; 2 Shannons Boy Scout- Didn’t fire last time, he is also NW1L8; Samcin- Class-dropper actually fits the main condition.

Race 8: 1 Stock Boy Freddie- Poised for a perfect trip; 4 One Day Wonder- Draws well and shows good work, Charlino helps; 9 Strikemout- Did good work, but trip didn’t work out last time w/Noble.

Race 9: 7 Real Sexy- May be the best of the NW$75PS here; 5 Red River Maiden- Noble for Robin Miller may wake her up; 1 Mile Maker- Raced very well last time, can she do it again?

Race 10: 2 Take The Long Way- Third back and has been facing far better; 3 Yankeedoodledandee- Was a disappointment in debut at this level, another chance; 5 That’s Textbook- Has been on the super three of last four; 1 Leach- Gets Aaron and the rail.

Race 11: 3 Magic Dart- Racing poorly but classy vet has previous success with Aaron; 1 Roman Knows Best- Will be on the point, but must finish his mile; 2 Houdini Sahbra- Always hangs around, never wins.

Race 12: 2 Epes- As soft as he has raced in a long time, needs an easy trip; 3 Whispers Art- Has had bad luck here, but may be okay with Charlino; 6 Ata Ata- Does work, needs to sustain it.

Race 13: 4 Ideal Ticket- There’s that interesting barn change and gets Noble; 5 Ohio Star- Competitive at times, your guess is as good as mine; 1 E C K- Does moderate work but hasn’t won in a while; 2 Up Front Carl- Not a nickel in his last five and on my ticket tells you all you need to know about this group.

Saturday and your still hangin around

2011-03-24T12:27:00.000-07:00

Hope you;'re not tired of livin' in this one-horse town. Great song, great album by William Joel
Hey gang. Big announcement coming April 1 and it will not be an April Fools joke. Which is not to say we may not have some fun with those picks. I will be betting this card pretty hard. Good luck.

Race 1: 2 The Libberteriann- Dominated these last time with Aaron driving; 5 Rounding Third- Lasix should help him heading home; 4 Lincoln N- Moves back up but has been doing some work late.

Race 2: 3 Country Creek- Moves up in exceptional form and draws well; 5 Special D- Has been doing well as a Michael Phelps impersonator; 6 Chang Dynasty- Got everything but the win last time.

Race 3: 6 Diehl’s Deal- Moves up, but has been racing well enough to handle these; 1 Captain Korki- Solid player will be moving late; 3 Angelo Kosmos- Stalker needs a perfect trip and may get it.

Race 4: 2 Saltea’s Sanjay- Competitive group, but dominated his last time in the class; 6 Sharp Shuttle- Class dropper gets 3rd back after aggressive tough trip in his last; 4 Delaware Fortune- Seems to be improving, gets fresh hands; 8 Perfect Door- Back class, but historically not effective from the snowman.

Race 5: 6 Expresso Forte- Never a moment of doubt Wednesday night; 3 S F Stampede- Not as impressive an eligible-at-time-of entry as the top pick; 7 Jackson One- Contended w/better from out here.

Race 6: 3 Panpoint Accuracy- Shows nothing but quality for Triple G; 1 Gina Marie P- Should be better from the rail; 2 Ge’s Antonio- Wyatt chose off, but he may not Stahl with Ryan.

Race 7: 1 Goin Home Ray- 3rd back, the rail and class relief for a horse I’ve always liked; 3 Museum Piece- NW1L8 has done everything but win out of the class last six; 4 Race Track Cruiser- Always does some work in the mile; 5 Christmas Photo K- Shows consistent moderate closing efforts & seems to fit.

Race 8: 1 Caramel Dumpling- You’ll never guess what I have to say about him; 7 Cruise On Osborne- Would get my call with a better draw; 4 Dax Hanover- Flat at this level last time, but gets Charlino.

Race 9: 5 Ar Ed- Form is improving and seems best here; 3 Picasso’s Dream- Very consistent and should contend at this level; 6 Bodandy Andy- Double class jump protects the claim, a bit rarefied air.

Race 10: 7 Red White And Crue- Eligible-at-time-of-entry, 12-1 ML must have been set before Wed. race; 2 Fancy Schmansy- Has always been inconsistent, but racing well right now; 5 Doowrah’s Deal- Needed the last start, but 5-2? 6 Rapid Pursuit- May be too far out to get more than an minor piece here.

Race 11: 1 Osborne’s Yankee- I love the mopheads, should roll from the rail; 5 Buzz Hershey- Upward form cycle and some consistency; 4 The Long Goodbye- Solid horse who I can rarely figure out.

Race 12: 3 Gold Fever- Moves up in great form & I am not convinced there is much between 25s & 3s; 6 Broadway Fame- Class dropper gets fresh hands; 7 Phagus Hall- Wins with an inside draw, not here.

Race 13: 2 Step By Step- Seems sharpest of a group of mostly NW1L8s;4 Doowrah’s Trifold- Eligible-at-time-of entry and could easily repeat; 1 Balin Hanover- His worst current line is against these, shows better against better; 5 Vaniscape- Beaten at 1-5 last time, but does have two wins on his ’11 card.

Wednesday's winners

2011-03-21T13:15:00.000-07:00

The kind of card you can go crazy on-- lots of obvious winners. If it doesn't rain.
Good luck.

Race 1: 2 Mr Bing- Can’t put Miss Tilly on top at 0-29 & this one draws well after a good frosh campaign; 4 Miss Tilly- May be second yet again; 6 Political Force- Just three life starts and showed a little in last.

Race 2: 9 Shackleton Hanover- Gets Noble & lukewarm call in a lukewarm group; 2 Liltycantbedenied- Not sure why, other than improved draw; 1 Deacon George- Stahl may leave from the rail & be a factor.

Race 3: 9 Willard Jr- Let’s go with the Noble/Pfister/2nd tier angle again; 3 Pathway Dot Com- Big class dropper needs a good trip; 4 High Gear Speed- Very consistent racing at this level.

Race 4: 6 Next Idol- You know we love eligible-at-time-of-entry horses, especially off a win; 3 Guile’s Boy- Tyler chose over the #1, perhaps; 2 Noble Thought- Best draw in ages and should be competitive; 8 Barratry- Huge class drop and gets Stahl for Melloy, but snowman may be too much to overcome.

Race 5: 6 Lima Lucky- Has started four-year-old campaign off very well; 2 Celebrity Wonder- as competitive two classes higher and draws well; 7 Bit O Looks- Big effort 1st time Noble, draws outside.

Race 6: 5 Vaniscape- NW1L8 and a class drop for Noble; 2 Houdini Sahbra- Consistent contender never wins; 1 Western Jack- A NW1L8 trifecta here, they have the edge, especially with these posts.

Race 7: 3 Expresso Forte- Third back and racing very well; 7 Dalcroft Big Guy- Handled the move up well and can race from outside; 4 Avenue A- Shows moderate work and must use in the exotics; 6 No Escape N- J.D. chose #4, but this one is racing well and may be okay.

Race 8: 3 She’s All Country- Eligible-at-time-of-entry off a monster effort; 1 Dynamite Dazzler- Fresh horse angle can be huge in this class; 8 Sadie Falcon- NW1L8 drops, but is saddled with the snowman.

Race 9: 6 Ivor Hanover- Finally used to the neighborhood, should roll; 2 Cat’s Run- NW1L8 has an even bigger advantage here, imo; 1 Proud American- NW1L8 and the rail is the best of both worlds.

Race 10: 1 Sparks Of Gold- Looks like he needs the front and may get it; 2 Rhino- Beat these two back from a good draw; 3 Zipsnapndrop- Hoping for a return to form; 9 Tieler Bea Hotspur- Contends on paper, but not sure how he will be from the second tier.

Race 11: 2 Lucca’s Revenge- Back at the barn of his greatest success, gate-to-wire; 3 Just Walter- Gets a barn change and is in good form; 8 Legacy Chip- Another chance after breaking off the claim.

Race 12: 4 S F Stampede- Stahl jumps off #1 when Robin can’t drive this one; 6 Good Connections- Drops two below the level of his last win; 3 Jackson One- Class dropper should be on the ticket.

Race 13: 1 Powerful Cam- Had had no shot with his recent draws; 2 Red White and Crue- A bit of a Motley effort in last start; 7 Sharp Shuttle- Major class relief, but may still need a start; 9 Gallows Pole- has shown little against better, but may hang on for a small piece here.

Just another Manic Monday

2011-03-18T14:04:00.001-07:00

There could be some very big numbers here. I see a lot of potentially false favorites. Good luck!

Race 1: 4 Inquisitive Me- Somebody has to win and he has come closest lately; 6 Gram Of Gold- Gotta love the fresh horse angle at the bottom; 3 Winter‘s Finali- Lost all chance with the break, try again.
Race 2: 6 Love N Devotion- Just needs to sustain her w3ork to get the win; 2 Israeli Hall- Better with the inside draw; 1 Be Bop Beauty- Has had an awful lot of down time, which worries me.
Race 3: 3 Viking Mia- Care to wager that she will be eligible at time of entry? 1 Silent Star- Finally gets a presentable draw; 6 Come Along Fred- Form has gone a bit south lately, but still a contender.

Race 4: 9 Panpoint Accuracy- Not sure how he will deal with the 2nd tier, but appears the best; 6 Bad Boy Bunny- Inconsistent but fits with his best; 5 Rabbitman- Gonna be a good night for the bunnies; 1 Keystone Ranger- Has been awful and will be waaayyy overbet.

Race 5: 4 Barbazon- Looks for three in a row and should get it; 7 Conway Maid- Very consistent, regardless of post. Ignore at your own risk; 5 Stock Boy Freddie- Moves up but is in decent form.

Race 6: 5 Royal Cam Osborne- Has been doing big work, but needs to be closer earlier; 1 Ohio Star- Will never be in cheaper and gets first time Noble; 2 Dragoninthekash- Doing work, not finishing it.

Race 7: 5 Hoosier Lion- Drops to the level of his last win and gets Aaron; 1 That’s Textbook- Closes but has as much gate speed as I do; 6 E C K- Always hangs around and should be on the ticket; 4 House Of Green- Consider the class dropper.

Race 8: 9 Anastasia Wildfire- Moves outside, but has dominate this level lately; 9 Contech- Always contends when he stays flat; 2 American Grace K- Several on-the-board efforts at this level recently.

Race 9: 2 Indy Red- Goes to the lead and improves position from there; 4 Askpedia- Tough trip last time, should contend if he gets a rest; 8 Osbornes Potential- Stahl’s choice over the 7-2 rail horse.

Race 10: 5 Yankeedoodledandee- Look for a big form reversal against this lesser group; 9 Delaware Fortune- Showed improvement with Noble last time; 1 Raging Bull- Gets Grismore with Smith choosing off; 6 A Firm Kisser- Less than 3% win rate, but may contend against these.

Race 11: 9 He’s Fulla Chip- Simply trying to get an overbet fave beat and this one may do it; 6v Littlebitofhoney- Beaten favorite last two out; 4 Abba Zabra- Took pressure and tired but fits well here.

Race 12: 3 Electric Presence- Consistent Performer gets class relief and a Stahl-Melloy angle; 9 Sleek Fish- No chance from the snowman, raced well prior to that; 7 Soul Redeemer- Back class, better inside.

Race 13: 2 Christmas Photo K- Hoping Christmas comes early; 5 Shannons Boy Scout- Starting to show the late brush we have been expecting; 4 Ideal Ticket- Has had some tough trips, may surprise; 1 Class Worker- Usually hangs around from the rail.

Saturday stuff

2011-03-18T10:34:00.000-07:00

Finally back in synch with my sleep cycles and after watching March Madness Go ahead and sue me NCAA). Cashed all three of my bets on Thursday- all dogs, but my bracket got crushed. Hopefully a good weekend at the windows and an even better three days of the tourney. Here are the Saturday picks. Good luck.

Race 1: 6 Chang Dynasty- Charlino chooses Chang. Cha-ching; 3 Vince The Man- My initial pick until Dan ducked to Dynasty; 2 Caramel Dumpling- Nice not to need a new line each race- will be flying late.

Race 2: 4 Sparks Of Gold- Big class drop after doing work against better; 1 Houdini Sahbra- Always contends, never wins; 8 Powerchord- A hunch. He should change from a Telecaster to a Stratocaster.

Race 3: 1 Giulio- Came from way back, we get a 3rd back & baby’s got back; 6 Indiana Hanover- Moves up off an average effort but gets Aaron; 8 Iknowwhatboyslike- We will find out how good she is here.

Race 4: 2 The Long Goodbye- Tends to race well when he draws well. He does, he should; 5 Osborne’s Yankee- Third back, but hasn’t shown enough to top the ticket; 1 Oh Gee Whiz- Must be aggressive from the gate to stay interested; 8 Delivered Rules- Form returns, snowman hurts him.

Race 5: 5 Jenna’s Dream- Rare break broke the streak, another chance; 4 Country Creek- Very, very consistent; 2 Big George H- Beat these last time and I may put him on top if the price is right.

Race 6: 1 J D’s Turismo- Road worries in last and now gets the rail; 5 Cruise On Osbone- Third back, but hasn’t shown enough to top the ticket; 2 Worries Stay Small- Back at the level of a win two back.

Race 7: 1 Special D- Looked pretty special in his first start for Hollar; 2 Expresso Forte- Has tactical speed, but may be a start or two away from his best; 9 Avenue A- Seems to be improving; 6 Magnificent Gift- J.D. chose off.

Race 8: 3 Jack Maverick- Aaron chose over the 4 & 5, which surprised me; 6 No Risk- Gets the eligible-at-time-of-entry tag & must consider; 1 Lima Jag- Faces much softer after a very nice soph season finish.

Race 9: 2 Broadway Fame- Has been as dependable as Rita Moreno on the Great White Way; 4 Dakotas Bridgeman- What’s not to like? 6 Westedge Matt- Very solid, but moves a bit farther outside.

Race 10: 7 Epes- Drops to the level of a dominating win six back; 1 Ron Jeremy- Could key your Pick Four-play; 5 Capricious Art- Gets an ETE and we can consider him as a result; 9 Ge’s Antonio- Wildly inconsistent, your guess is as good as mine.

Race 11: 5 Gramma’s Guy- Very consistent and only recent win was with Aaron driving; 1 Upfront red River- No chance in last from the snowman, has speed; 2 Buzz Hershey- For minor honors.

Race 12: 3 Bodandy Andy- Super sharp and is my best bet; 4 Tactical Dreamer N- Tough trip last time, another chance; 6 Dd Cam Ram- Always streaky and in a positive form turn right now.

Race 13: 2 Gyraider- Eligible-at-time-of-entry and may actually see a pylon this time; 1 Next Idol- Has drawn worse than a kindergartner in art class, rail is huge; 4 Mr Ahhh- Should compete for a piece of this one; 5 Artistic Dreamer- Was awful prior to last, may be on t he upswing.

Friday thoughts

2011-03-17T11:34:00.000-07:00

A quick look after getting back into town at 3 AM Thursday. Had a blast touring a few bourbon distilleries in Kentucky and adding a few prizes to my collection..but still looking for a bottle of Pappy Van Winkles.
Saturday picks will be posted Friday around noon, if I can tear myself away from ;capping the NCAA tourney. Good Luck.

Race 1: 4 Digital’s Dream- Racing okay, decent speed & gets rare Stahl-Melloy angle; b2Stormy Gray Sea- Draws well & gets a 3rd star back angle; 3 Polo Aub- Continues to hang around, must do more.

Race 2: 6 One Day Wonder- Another chance after a flat effort; 9 Forever Friends- Third back and won her last; 4 Viking Mia- Lindsey makes a good move putting former pilot Sugg up.

Race 3: 4 Freenezdowntheroad- Trip from purgatory in last, best with the front; 9 Myoneandonly- Green with license to improve; 7 Inawhile Crocodile- The Handicapping Herpetologist’s special. Duh.

Race 4: 1 Rosie Caribia- Glad that owner Ford is still otherwise occupied, she woke back up in last; 5 Jetstreamjazziecam- Was flying when she broke, risky; 3 Sunrise Sunset- What words of wisdom can I give (you)? 9 Section Line Adina- Should get a very good trip behind the pick,

Race 5: 4 Hula Lu- Always gives effort and can pull the upset here; 2 Miss Big Time- How will she respond to the barn change? 3 Medoland Kendall- Just not showing a lot of pop lately.

Race 6: 2 Allamerican Dora- Should recover from a miserable trip; 5 Miss Port Foal Leo- Figures, but is too inconsistent to pick on top; 7 Stand Out Girl- Usually picks up horses late in the mile.

Race 7: 9 She’s All Country- Always hangs around and we get the Stahl-Melloy angle; 4 Darting Larkin- Has faced better and contends with her best; 3 Silky Sailor- Showed signs of waking up last time; 6 Cn Loufly Loretta- Had a good run of form prior to last week.

Race 8: 2 Saratoga’s Best- Should get an easy lead and control things in this one; 1 Tiffany Malone- Should take a two-hole trip; 8 Tt’s Little Lass- Really like the way she is racing, really hate the post.

Race 9: 6 C R Dream- Has really put it together as a four-year-old; 1 Storms Never Last- Double move up, but should contend from the rail; 7 Enticing Beauty- A major player if she can overcome the post.

Race 10: 1 Clarksville Jazz- Drew PP6 and 8 with the move back up, better here; 4 Hollysfolly- Should be flying late; 8 Forever Lucky- Stahl chose over the 5-2 ML choice; 9 She’sa Town Girl- Hoping she will trip out behind the pick.

Race 11: 2 Gadjet- Third back, beat these last time from a bad post, Best bet; 4 Scandalous- Competes with her best; 1 Ferris Wheel- Having a good year, just not winning as much as last year.

Race 12: 1 Swift Samantha- Form is improving and rail is huge in this class; 3 Shadyplace- Always hangs around, needs to do a little more; 6 Friendly Kathy- Third back and should improve.

Race 13: 2 French Worker- Doesn’t win much, but sure is racing well; 3 Lisa Character- Nearly got it done dropping to this level last time; 9 Quite A Shark- Commissioned will be forward early but may not carry her as far as I would like; 1 Commissioned N- See comments for Quite A Shark.

Wednesday Wild Wishes

2011-03-12T10:04:00.000-08:00

I will be on the road and have done these picks prior to scratch (ie:driver choice) time. Hopefully that won't affect things too much, but...
I return some time Thursday and hopeto get you Friday picks, but if not, we will definitely have Saturday posted either late Thursday or early Friday. Good luck.

Race 1: 6 Miss Tilly- Should easily through against a soft group tonight; 8 Andrea Pauline- Needs to overcome the snowman, not sure she can; 1 Silhouettes K- Risky, but may contend from rail.

Race 2: 1 Cat’s Run- Has been racing better with Tyler driving; 3 Redzilla- A winning qualifier makes him a contender against this group; 9 Ivor Hanover- Needed the local start and should improve.

Race 3: 3 Pacificam- Should be good from here, another Tyler/Bartlett combo; 1 Houdini Sahbra- Major contender but cannot put him on top; 9 Cruisin The Waves- Should get a pretty decent trip.

Race 4: 1 No Escape N- Lukewarm call in a well-balanced group thanks to the rail; 9 Macjurcoharry- Fresh and a decent qualifier; 3 Goin Home Ray- Always hangs around, consider; 8 The Libberteriann- If he overcomes the snowman.

Race 5: 1 Money Man K- Strap him back up and put him in the winners circle; 5 One Tough Night- Has raced well with Tyler; 4 Willard Jr- Hard to ignore the Feb 15 line, regardless of current form.

Race 6: 6 Diehl’s Deal- Slight call in a very competitive group; 2 Rose Run Freddie- Is he back? Perhaps; 8 5 Filou Dream- Not sure what kind of trip this one is dreaming of.

Race 7: 2 Depravedhedonist- In as soft as I can remember and may be a value; 6 Nascart- Starting to put things together and could surprise; 9 S F Stampede- Not sure how he will respond to the 2nd tier, draw gate move? 1 Tieler Bea Hotspur- Must consider this one from the rail.

Race 8: 5 Bigwig- Still green, but rapidly improving, a chance here; 3 The Count- Gets a good draw and must be considered; 9 Pray To Me- May get a very good trip in the cover flow.

Race 9: 2 Real Sexy- Has been knocking at the door, breaks through here; 6 Triggerhappyfellow- seems to fit well with these; 5 Toronado Mindale- Due for a big mile?

Race 10: 9 Dalcroft Big Guy- Look for him to make it three in a row despite the second tier; 6 Slick Sport- Comes off a win, but moves up to face better; 1 Robin Dontget- Not a big fan, but must factor in from the rail; 8 Redication- Can clearly contend at this level, not sure he can contend with this draw.

Race 11: 4 Lucca’s Revenge- Gets the call based on previous class; 3 Legacy Chip- Let’s cash that $5.60 exacta, boys and girls; 1 Jiggy Jack- Needs a smart drive from Kenny.

Race 12: 1 Museum Piece- Rail is a huge advantage for this NW1L8; 3 Mr Ahhh- I’ve just always liked him but recent form is iffy; 5 Coin Of The Realm- Had issues throughout last time, Another chance.

Race 13: 1 Go Landon Go- How can I not pick a horse named for the country’s best soccer player? 2 Gyraider- Fastest winner this year draws well; 9 Powerful Cam- Veteran can contend with these; 4 Western Eddie- Having him on my ticket has almost become a running joke.

Monday March Madness

2011-03-11T12:14:00.000-08:00

I may be watching this card from Southland Greyhound Park in West Memphis, Arkansas. Not sure yet. if so, it will definitely be a fried bologna sandwich for dinner- their concession lady used to work at "that Roosevelt Raceway," and she makes fried bologna like nine I have ever tasted. I will need a side of Lipitor, but don't want to miss it. Good luck!

Race 1: 4 Osbornes Potential- Seems to be the most consistent of these; 7 Beasty Royal- Good qualifier and had high expectations; 5 Royal Cam Osborne- Has shown a few moderate closing efforts.
Race 2: 1 Gold Fever- Racing well and outdraws the other main players; 7 Phagus Hall- Super sharp and has raced well from outside; 5 Bodandy Andy- Fits very well here, or with the $3000s.
Race 3: 2 Come Along Fred- NW1L8 shows solid recent work and may be a value; 3 Actions By Chip- Haven’t seen a lot of the Kramp/Charlino combo lately; 5 Lima Lucky- Has bounced back from time off.

Race 4: 6 Varitek- Gets a very soft group, but still needs to sustain his work; 2 Winter’s Finali- Let’s hope so, Rach; 5 Israeli Hall- Shows several recent on-the-board finishes; 1 Roman Knows Best- has been fourth from the rail in his last two.

Race 5: 1 Stock Boy Freddie- NW1L8 is a major threat from the rail; 7 Nordic Gentleman- May be in for another tough trip, but always does work; 6 He’s Fulla Chip- Not many others to consider here.

Race 6: 4 Goodnite Wilbur- Only 2011 winner gets Noble in a field that is batting .024 in 2010-11; 2 Happy Cam- Fresh horse angle and a good post; 9 Leach- has had his best results with Aaron driving.

Race 7: 4 Panpoint Accuracy- Was a bit more impressive than the other winners in last, good back half; 9 Ata Ata- He has stopped winning, but he usually does work; 1 Western Empire- A factor from the rail; 3 French Attack- Showed more than he had been last time.

Race 8: 4 Anastasia Wildfire- Doesn’t always fire, but still green and impressed in last; 1 Contech- Always very solid at this level & rail helps; 3 Abba Zabra- Always hangs around, but needs to do more.

Race 9: 2 Beans And Weenies- Closed well in last start after an unplanned freshening; 4 Vp Hot Rod- Needs to sustain his work, but he is a player; 5 Christmas Photo K- Contends with his best.

Race 10: 4 Soul Redeemer- Not what he once was, but still pretty honest; 2 Three Five Seven- Has had some tough trips and posts, maybe better tonight? 7 Hoosier Lion- First time Dan Noble makes him a factor; 9 Bell’s Courier- I’ve always liked this line, but this one was awful before last week.

Race 11: 4 Thomas Be Quick- Like many John G-trainees, went forward with Noble; 7 Conway Maid- Seems to always contend, but rarely wins; 2 R U A Looker- Figures, but must see one start with straps.

Race 12: 3 Askpedia- Showed a good turn of foot in last start, right? 1 Winsmith Delight- Could easily win this even though she appears a step or two slower; 5 Indy Red- Back at his best level.

Race 13: 2 Rabbitman- Showed improvement last time, can he show a bit more? 1 Inquisitive Me- Don’t ask, don’t tell; 3 Ideal Ticket- Gets a better draw which may help him; 5 That’s Textbook- On the boartd two straight since being reunited with Charlino.

Everybody Loves Saturday Night

2011-03-10T11:17:00.001-08:00

I really, really hope I hit Friday's Pick 5 so I will have some bankroll for this card. Immensely playable and some good potential value. The lack of Noble really changes the dynamic. Good luck.
Race 1: 6 Step By Step- NW1L8 and 2nd in 1:54.3 two back; 7 Silent Bid- They opened it up for this class dropper, post a worry; 1 Toronoado Mindale- Another NW1L8 and he gets the rail.

Race 2: 2 Iknowwhatboyslike- Moves up off the claim, but still gets a slight call; 5 Giulio- Needed last start, but may be a couple away from his best; 1 Master Wheels- Can stalk from the rail for the master.

Race 3: 3 Country Creek- Had done big work since the claim and is due for a win; Doctor Gates- Like his form, not sure how he will be from 2nd tier; Irish Raider- All the other leavers have questionable posts.

Race 4: 9 Soaring Viking- Has been competitive against better, may be a price; 2 Rounding Third- I still have no idea how good he might be. Neither do his connections; 1 Delivered Rules- Needs to be aggressive here; 7 Saucy Brown- First time Aaron and has tactical speed. Interesting dilemma outside.

Race 5: 2 Dakotas Bridgeman- It’s a big move up, but he’s been racing extremely well & may handle it; 7 Ar Ed- 3rd back angle; 5 Big George H- Can contend in this class and is first time Dan Charlino

Race 6: 2 Special D- Perhaps his connections have pooled their resources; 3 Avenue A- Usually closes well; 5 Blue My Mind- Gets class relief and has had previous success with Aaron.

Race 7: 2 The Libberteriann- Class dropper gets slight call in a race where the top five have a chance; 3 Awesome Abe- Love this driver move, even if forced; 7 Dax Hanover- Eligible at time of entry, but moves further outside; 9 Rapid Pursuit- Winless this year, but can explode at any time.

Race 8: 5 Chang Dynasty- Anything like the qualifier wins it; 3 The Long Goodbye- I think the horse reads my picks and then just decides to spite me; 1 Zakman- A minor player from the rail.

Race 9: 1 Meritage Hanover- Deceptively dangerous from inside, any chance for 7-2? 4 Caramel Dumpling- Will fly late; 5 Jenna’s Dream- Looks for his sixth in a row moving up. What’s his bottom?

Race 10: 3 Cruise On Osborne- Did some work in seasonal debut and should be better here; 7 J D’s Turismo- Inconsistent & post worries, but these aren’t that tough; 4 Sun Set Acres Troy- Has had much local success, consider; 5 Vilas Blue Chip- No way he’s 4-1 after being 50-1 in this class last week.

Race 11: 4 Tieler Bea Hotspur- He’s no Tyler B & he’s no Hotspur, but he fits with these; 1 Motorcycle Mike- How does he respond to the change of scenery? 9 Slade Gram- Should get a good trip.

Race 12: 3 Laughing Is An Art- It will be almost embarrassing if he doesn’t win here; 4 Mr Kite- Was an overbet favorite last time; 9 Mr Ahhh- Drops to the level of his last win, but it was in seven and four.

Race 13: 2 Sparks Of Gold- Better post and an aggressive driver may get him home; 1 Bucky Can’t Caddy- Would like him more with more gate speed; 9 Swingopolitan- Green and can improve; 6 Empire State- May be in for another tough trip.